Professional Skills in International Financial Surveillance: Assessing Change in IMF Policy Teams

In 2006, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) lauded Iceland's capacity to “withstand extreme, but plausible, shocks,” which was clearly an error in judgment. After the international financial crisis hit, IMF officials bemoaned the lack of professional market skills in FSAP teams. Importing these skills was difficult given IMF staff freezes, but postcrisis FSAP continued with heightened legitimacy inside and outside the IMF. This article provides an assessment of FSAP teams, focusing on the hiring of external experts and their professional skills. We use an Optimal Matching analysis of work roles in career histories to identify differences in policy teams and external experts' attributes. The article also draws on interviews with FSAP team members from 2008 to 2013. We demonstrate that changes in professional skills and team composition are a consequence of demands for professional insulation, institutional legitimation, and a view of professionalism as transnational organizational competence.     

Of Time and the Development of Partisan Polarization

In this article we address the topic of increasing partisan polarization in the American mass public, focusing on the twin influences of individual-level development and cohort replacement and the interaction between the two. We posit a model of individual development that consists of declining openness to change beyond young adulthood, an increase in party-issue constraint as age advances, and cohort-specific responsiveness to changes in the partisan environment. Results from a long-term panel study provide initial evidence of these dynamics. We then use simulations to generate expectations about how these developmental processes play out across cohorts, issues, and time. These expectations are evaluated through a cohort analysis of National Election Studies data from 1972 to 2004. Overall, our results provide a new perspective on the dynamics of individual political development and their implications for the timing, extent, and future trajectory of partisan polarization in the U.S. electorate.     

The governance of global security and development: convergence,divergence and coherence

This paper discusses the gaps in the present international system that in the final analysis threaten the objectives of conflict management. It asks if there is the interest and institutional will within the international community to close such gaps. It poses this challenge from the perspective of coherence. As noted in companion pieces to this study, the concept of coherence has at least four inter-related and complementary dimensions, i.e. internal, whole of government, harmonisation and alignment.     

Predictors of length of stay in forensic psychiatry: The influence of perceived risk of violence

This study describes the prevalence of adverse events and length of stay in forensic psychiatric patients with and without a restriction order. Detailed clinical and administrative information from medical records and written court decisions was gathered retrospectively from admission until discharge for a Swedish population-based, consecutive cohort of forensic psychiatric patients (n = 125). The median length of stay for the whole cohort was 951 days, but patients with a restriction order stayed in hospital almost five times as long as patients without. Restriction orders were related to convictions for violent crime, but not for any other differences in demographic or clinical variables. The majority of the patients (60%) were involved in adverse events (violence, threats, substance abuse, or absconding) at some time during their treatment. Patients with restriction orders were overrepresented in violent and threat events. Previous contact with child and adolescence psychiatric services, current violent index crime, psychotic disorders, a history of substance, and absconding during treatment predicted longer length of stay. Being a parent, high current Global Assessment of Functioning scores, and mood disorders were all significantly related to earlier discharge. In a stepwise Cox regression analysis current violent index crime and absconding remained risk factors for a longer hospital stay, while a diagnosis of mood disorder was significantly related to a shorter length of stay.     

Why are occupational safety crimes increasing?

The objective of this article is to analyse the structure of, and trends in, reported occupational safety crimes. The central focus is directed at analysing how we might understand the substantial increase in the number of reported offences witnessed during the first decade of the 21st century. In order to analyse trends in occupational safety crimes we proceed from both official crime statistics and data that have been compiled specifically for the purposes of this study, including a nationally representative sample of offence reports relating to the occupational safety crimes reported to the police. The results show that the increase in reported offenses is primarily due to a shift in definitions and in the reactions of the authorities rather than to a powerful increase in the number of actual crimes committed. This leads to the conclusion that registered occupational safety offences should first and foremost be viewed as a measure of the work of the authorities, rather than as an indicator of real crime trends.     

Hezbollah and the framing of resistance

Abstract

Hezbollah is a holistic network whose social, political, military and cultural dimensions are all parts of a discourse of resistance. Conducting a qualitative frame analysis of speeches by Hezbollah’s General Secretary Nasrallah, supported by interviews with Hezbollah leadership privy to its ideology, this study analyses the construction of muqawama (resistance). It argues that resistance is a complex social phenomenon, which can be manifested, for example, in the differences in how resistance is framed in varying contexts, often addressing different audiences. However, three unifying themes emerged from the frame analysis: diversity of resistance, normalisation of resistance and social dimensions of resistance.     

Examining the relationship between religiosity and self-control as predictors of prison deviance

The relationship between religiosity and crime has been the subject of much empirical debate and testing over the past 40 years. Some investigators have argued that observed relationships between religion and crime may be spurious because of self-control, arousal, or social control factors. The present study offers the first investigation of religiosity, self-control, and deviant behavior in the prison context. We use survey data from a sample of 208 recently paroled male inmates to test the impact of religiosity and self-control on prison deviance. The results indicate that two of the three measures of religiosity may be spurious predictors of prison deviance after accounting for self-control. Participation in religious services is the only measure of religiosity to significantly reduce the incidence of prison deviance when controlling for demographic factors, criminal history, and self-control. We conclude with implications for future studies of religiosity, self-control, and deviance in the prison context.     

Polytraumatization and trauma symptoms in adolescent boys and girls: interpersonal and noninterpersonal events and moderating effects of adverse family circumstances

The objective of this study was to investigate the cumulative effect of interpersonal and noninterpersonal traumatic life events (IPEs and nIPEs, respectively) on the mental health of adolescents and to determine if the adverse impacts of trauma were moderated by adverse family circumstances (AFC). Adolescents (mean age 16.7 years) from the normative population (n = 462) completed the questionnaire, the Link?ping Youth Life Experience Scale (LYLES), together with Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC). The lifetime accumulation of interpersonal, noninterpersonal, and AFC was independently related to trauma-related symptoms in both boys and girls. The number of AFCs moderated the mental health impact of both IPEs and nIPEs in boys but not in girls. Cumulative exposure to both interpersonal and noninterpersonal traumatic events is important for the mental health of adolescents, and, at least for boys, family circumstances seem to be relevant for the impact of trauma. Our results suggest that broader approaches to the study, prevention, and treatment of trauma, including consideration of cumulative exposure, different types of trauma, and additional social risk factors, could be fruitful.     

Complex mixtures: A critical examination of a paper by Homer et al.

DNA evidence in criminal cases may be challenging to interpret if several individuals have contributed to a DNA-mixture. The genetic markers conventionally used for forensic applications may be insufficient to resolve cases where there is a small fraction of DNA (say less than 10%) from some contributors or where there are several (say more than 4) contributors. Recently methods have been proposed that claim to substantially improve on existing approaches [1]. The basic idea is to use high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays including as many as 500,000 markers or more and explicitly exploit raw allele intensity measures. It is claimed that trace fractions of less than 0.1% can be reliably detected in mixtures with a large number of contributors. Specific forensic issues pertaining to the amount and quality of DNA are not discussed in the paper and will not be addressed here. Rather our paper critically examines the statistical methods and the validity of the conclusions drawn in Homer et al. (2008) [1].We provide a mathematical argument showing that the suggested statistical approach will give misleading results for important cases. For instance, for a two person mixture an individual contributing less than 33% is expected to be declared a non-contributor. The quoted threshold 33% applies when all relative allele frequencies are 0.5. Simulations confirmed the mathematical findings and also provide results for more complex cases. We specified several scenarios for the number of contributors, the mixing proportions and allele frequencies and simulated as many as 500,000 SNPs.A controlled, blinded experiment was performed using the Illumina GoldenGate^® 360 SNP test panel. Twenty-five mixtures were created from 2 to 5 contributors with proportions ranging from 0.01 to 0.99. The findings were consistent with the mathematical result and the simulations.We conclude that it is not possible to reliably infer the presence of minor contributors to mixtures following the approach suggested in Homer et al. (2008) [1]. The basic problem is that the method fails to account for mixing proportions.