Introduction: rising powers and the future of global governance

There has been much debate over the extent to which the rising powers of the global South are challenging contemporary global political and economic governance. While some observers see an emancipatory potential in the redistribution of power among states, others see the rising powers as firmly located within the Western-centred neoliberal world order. This collection of papers seeks to go beyond the state-centrism of existing approaches by examining how challenges to global governance by rising powers are rooted in specific state–society configurations. Through studies of Brazil, India, China and other important developing countries within their respective regions, such as Turkey and South Africa, the papers examine the way domestic structures, arrangements, actors and dynamics influence the nature of the international interventions and behaviour of rising powers. They ask how their increased political and economic enmeshment in the international system impacts upon their own internal societal cohesion and development. By examining these issues, the papers raise the question of whether the challenge posed by the rising powers to global governance is likely to lead to an increase in democracy and social justice for the majority of the world’s peoples.     

Power,Patterns, and Process in European Union History

Sebastian Rosato's admirably provocative Europe United retells the origins of the European Union (EU) as a realist story of the balance of power. While he deserves praise for a bold attempt to extend offensive realism into history's greatest instance of international cooperation, the book ultimately reads as a cautionary methodological tale about how not to support a realist argument. Realist theory has been influential mainly because it offers strong expectations about major patterns in the world—relatively unitary decision-making within states and specific kinds of foreign policies between them—but Rosato's evidence focuses on a thin version of process. He selectively cites leaders' statements about their policy choices across the story, providing no leverage on how these statements related to patterned interests within or across countries. Interestingly, a similar error weakens work by the most salient IR scholar writing on EU history, Andrew Moravcsik. Their shared problems hint at a pattern of IR scholars overlooking patterns in historical evidence.     

Another look at across-crime similarity coefficients for use in behavioural linkage analysis: an attempt to replicate Woodhams,Grant, and Price (2007)

Abstract

In the absence of physical evidence, investigators must often rely on offence behaviours when determining whether several crimes are linked to a common offender. A variety of factors can potentially influence the degree to which accurate linking is possible, including the similarity coefficient used to assess across-crime similarity. The current study examines the performance of two similarity coefficients that have recently been compared to one another, Jaccard's coefficient (J) and the taxonomic similarity index (Δ_s), using samples of two crime types, serial homicide (N=237) and serial burglary (N=210). In contrast to previous research, the results indicate that Δ_s does not significantly outperform J with respect to linking accuracy. In addition, both coefficients lead to higher levels of linking accuracy in cases of serial homicide compared to serial burglary. Potential explanations for these findings are presented and their implications are discussed.     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

“A filmmaker and his film”

Abstract

I'm writing this review as a new-found devotee of filmmaker Kidlat Tahimik and as an old friend of Eric de Guia. I say this to lay out my prejudices and at the same time to try to explain my amazement at the transformation of Eric de Guia into Kidlat Tahimik.     

Race,Gender, and Government Contracting: Different Explanations or New Prospects for Theory?

The U.S. Congress created the Small Disadvantaged Business (SDB) and Women‐Owned Small Business (WOSB) programs to promote fairness in government contracting. In this article, the authors examine whether increases in racial and gender representation in federal agencies correlate with the proportion of contract dollars awarded to women‐ and minority‐owned firms. Using the theory of representative bureaucracy as a starting point, they find evidence that increases in passive minority representation result in a larger proportion of contract dollars awarded to minority‐owned firms, which comports with previous empirical research. There is no evidence, however, that female representation leads directly or indirectly to substantive benefits for women‐owned small businesses. Given that the findings for women do not support representative bureaucracy, the authors provide potential alternative explanations. Specifically, they consider gender bias, social identity, and the “queen bee” phenomenon as possible explanations for why women are less inclined to advocate for other women.     

Alcohol and Violence Related Cognitive Risk Factors Associated with the Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence

The primary aim of this study is to determine the association between alcohol, violence related cognitive risk factors, and impulsivity with the perpetration of partner violence among current drinkers. A probability sample (n = 1468) of White, Black, and Hispanic couples 18 years of age or older in the United States household population was interviewed in 1995 with a response rate of 85%. The risk factors of interest included the alcohol and violence related cognitions of approval of marital aggression, alcohol as an excuse for misbehavior, and aggressive expectations following alcohol consumption as well as impulsivity. In all, 15% (216/1468) of the respondents reported perpetration of domestic violence. In addition, 24% (7/29) of those who approved of marital violence, 11% (126/1163) of those who reported alcohol use as an excuse for misbehavior, 10% (128/1257) of those who reported aggressive expectations following alcohol consumption, and 14% (99/716) of those who reported impulsivity also reported perpetration of domestic violence. Bivariate analysis indicated that all of the cognitive risk factors were significantly more common in those who reported perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) (p < 0.05). However, multivariate analysis controlling for ethnicity, education, income, age, gender, and impulsivity indicated that those who reported strong or very strong expectations of aggressive behavior following alcohol consumption were 3.2 (95% CI = 1.3–7.9) times more likely to perpetrate IPV. Although all of the alcohol and violence related cognitive risk factors were associated with the perpetration of domestic violence, expectations of aggressive behavior following alcohol consumption appeared to be the strongest predictor of the perpetration of IPV among current drinkers. Therefore, alcohol expectancy may be an important factor to assess when attempting to identify and treat perpetrators of domestic violence who are also current drinkers.     

Heifer International: Growing a learning organisation

Heifer International (HI) has been applying participatory approaches to rural development for nearly 60 years. Organisationally, HI focuses on building the capacity of its country programmes and NGO partners to work independently toward a unifying mission. An open structure allows HI to validate and incorporate the rich and diverse experience of its project holders and country programme offices into organisational planning and daily operations. This article analyses three recent HI initiatives which incorporate deliberate processes to facilitate organisational learning. It outlines different strategies that HI uses to institutionalise learning without imposing limitations on it.