How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs

Previous methods of analyzing the substance of political attention have had to make several restrictive assumptions or been prohibitively costly when applied to large-scale political texts. Here, we describe a topic model for legislative speech, a statistical learning model that uses word choices to infer topical categories covered in a set of speeches and to identify the topic of specific speeches. Our method estimates, rather than assumes, the substance of topics, the keywords that identify topics, and the hierarchical nesting of topics. We use the topic model to examine the agenda in the U.S. Senate from 1997 to 2004. Using a new database of over 118,000 speeches (70,000,000 words) from the Congressional Record , our model reveals speech topic categories that are both distinctive and meaningfully interrelated and a richer view of democratic agenda dynamics than had previously been possible.     

Terrorist networks, support, and delegation

The paper presents a game-theoretic representation of a general terrorist organization (GTO) that delegates responsibility to local terrorist representatives in n countries. The GTO achieves a strategic advantage by deploying a more radical representative when the government is perceived to be weak and terrorist supporters are committed. When the government or terrorist supporters alter their posture, the GTO may regret its local representative. Outside assistance can change a besieged government’s posture, thereby removing the GTO’s delegation advantage. When both the GTO and the government delegate to surrogates, the delegators are worse off if the government appears to be weak.     

Constituent Communication Through Telephone Town Halls: A Field Experiment Involving Members of Congress

Telephone town halls are an increasingly prevalent method for members of Congress (MCs) to communicate with constituents, even while garnering popular criticism for failing to facilitate engagement and accountability. Yet scholars have paid little attention to the events and their effects, and even less to how they might be improved. To remedy this problem, we report on a field experiment in which four MCs joined their constituents in telephone town halls. Overall, participation in an event improved constituents’ evaluations of the format in general, and of the MC in particular. Furthermore, we studied how these events might be improved by evaluating a reform—a single‐topic focus with predistributed briefing materials—designed to enhance deliberative interaction. This reform enhanced effects on opinions of the format without significantly altering effects on attitudes toward the MC. Our results suggest that telephone town halls hold promise for constituents, officeholders, and democratic practice.     

Do homicide rates increase during weekends and national holidays?

In the UK there has been limited research examining temporal patterns of homicide. To our knowledge, no studies have linked patterns of homicide to the mental health characteristics of the perpetrator. The study examined a national consecutive case series of homicide offences committed between January 1996 and December 2015 in England. Clinical data were collected by the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH). During this period 10,563 people committed a homicide. The offences were more likely to occur at the weekend, mostly on a Saturday. Weekend homicides were associated with: perpetrators under the age of 25, males and alcohol consumption. Homicides increased markedly on New Year’s Day, and public holidays. Those with a history of mental illness more commonly committed homicide during weekdays, suggesting a different pattern of offending. No change in pattern was found after licensing hours were extended in 2005 to allow 24-h licencing for the sale of alcohol. A public health approach should focus on educating young people on the health risks associated with alcohol, promoting responsible drinking and conflict avoidance, specifically on special events and at weekends.     

A partially randomized field experiment on the effect of an acoustic gunshot detection system on police incident reports

Journal of Experimental Criminology - To examine whether the introduction of an acoustic gunshot detection system (AGDS) allied to CCTV cameras increased the frequency of confirmed incidents of...     

Surveillance of environmental movements in Canada: critical infrastructure protection and the petro-security apparatus

A convergence of post-9/11 security governance practices and a dependence on extractive economies has resulted in changes to the way Canadian policing agencies classify environmental movements. We detail how the category of ‘critical infrastructure protection’ (CIP) now enables surveillance of environmentalists under the banner of national security. We examine the growth of CIP as a security category, its changing character from the Cold War to the present, and the role of threat entrepreneurs. We demonstrate that CIP networks have institutionalized collaborations between national security agencies and energy corporations, creating a petro-security apparatus that aims to suppress dissent. We conclude with reflections on what surveillance regimes driven by the petro-security apparatus mean for debates about national security and social movements.     

The Sexual Violence Risk-20: factor structure and psychometric properties

Although the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) is widely used, its psychometric properties have only been investigated in a limited number of studies. This study explored the factor structure of the SVR-20 and examined its psychometric properties. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to examine the fit of the original three-domain model of the SVR-20. The CFA showed that the original structure was not satisfactory. Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted in search of a more optimal factor structure. Psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency, predictive value, and convergent validity) of both the original domains and alternative factors were investigated. The PCA and subsequent CFAs pointed in the direction of an alternative, more optimal three-factor solution. The three alternative factors were labeled as Antisociality, Sexual deviance, and Problematic thinking and produced better internal consistency coefficients than the original domains. However, the validity of the SVR-20 was modest and no evidence was found indicating that the alternative factors were better in this regard as compared to the original domains. Despite the overall superiority of actuarial measures in predicting recidivism, the structured professional judgment of the SVR-20 proved to be more predictive of sexual, violent, and general recidivism than its actuarial scoring method.     

Moving beyond the socialization hypothesis: The effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of self-control

Purpose

Gottfredson and Hirschi, in A General Theory of Crime, argue that the primary source of self-control is parental socialization. Specifically, parents who fail to supervise their children, to recognize their child's deviant behavior, and to punish such behavior are more likely to raise children with lower levels of self-control. Recent empirical research, however, has broadened the explanatory factors to include sources within schools, neighborhoods, and individual factors as significant contributors to the development of self-control. This study proposes that maternal smoking during pregnancy places additional limits on the development of self-control.

Methods

Using a subsample of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (N = 542), we provide a comprehensive investigation of the variety of sources of self-control to include both individual and environmental covariates.

Results

Results indicate that maternal smoking during pregnancy significantly impacts the development of self-control net of parental, neighborhood, and school socialization. We also found that individual sources of self-control significantly vary across race and neighborhood context.

Conclusions

The sources of self-control are more complex than socialization from parents, schools, and within neighborhoods occurring in childhood and adolescence.     

The counselor's trauma as counseling motivation: vulnerability or stress inoculation?

Should counselors with interpersonal trauma histories work with similarly traumatized clients? How does the work affect them? Current research is inconsistent. This study examines 101 sexual assault and domestic violence counselors' recalled motivations for trauma work, their reported subjective personal changes, and their secondary and vicarious trauma symptoms and burnout. Counselors motivated by interpersonal trauma report both more symptoms and positive changes (including dealing with their own trauma). Those seeking personal meaning report becoming more hypervigilant and self-isolating. Those saying they learned from clients rate symptoms lower, suggesting stress inoculation. Supervisors of trauma counselors should facilitate learning from clients separately from processing the counselor's trauma.