How Economists Help Central Government Think: Survey Evidence from the UK Government Economic Service

Economic thinking is widely used now across most areas of government activity, though there is not much research on what professional economists do. This paper, therefore, develops and reports on a survey of over 500 members of the UK Government Economic Service, which we use to shed light on the activities and thinking of practitioners. We find, inter alia, that professional economics can be seen as drawing on at least four distinct economic paradigms, that the uses of economics vary significantly between areas of government and that whilst significant use of research can be made, this is not necessarily a defining aspect of professional practice.     

Toulmin's philosophy of argument and its relevance to offender profiling

This study sought to identify the extent to which claims about the probable characteristics of offenders in ‘offender profiles’ were based on substantive arguments. Because Toulmin's (1958) philosophy of argument has been demonstrated as a useful way of breaking down arguments into their constituent parts (Burleson, 1979) we examined the extent to which profiles contained grounds, warrants, backing and rebuttals to support or refute various claims about offenders. Twenty-one profiles, representing a range of ‘profiling styles’, were obtained from a variety of sources. All of these had been used in major criminal investigations either in the UK or internationally. Of the nearly 4,000 claims made, nearly 80% were unsubstantiated. That is, they contained no grounds, warrant, backing or rebuttal. Moreover, less than 31% of the claims were falsifiable. We argue that (a) this demonstrates the need for a careful, systematic evaluation of profiling advice (b) Toulmin's structure is one useful method for evaluating such material and for providing a possible framework for such advice.     

Sequential angulation,spatial dispersion and consistency of distance attack patterns from home in serial murder,rape and burglary

Abstract

Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offender's consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.     

The theory of value and the value of theory — a reply to Cutler et al.

Abstract

Serving as a pledge against a future promise, collateral has traditionally been understood as a ‘back office’ technicality that reduces the risk of default. Yet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the erosion of faith among market participants in the credit quality of large banks, collateral is playing an increasingly important epistemic role within finance, as an anchor that underpins the valuation of a growing number of financial instruments. This paper explores the increasing importance of collateral to the modelling practices used by ‘quants’ to value ‘over-the-counter’ interest rate derivatives since the 2008 financial crisis, and how the inclusion of collateral expertise into quants’ own modelling practices has affected these markets. This historical episode suggests that while the inclusion of collateral expertise into banks’ front office modelling practices has made banks’ pricing models less abstract and more aligned to the traditionally overlooked legal practices that underpin derivatives trading, it has also led to an explosion of complexity in the valuation of these instruments that now threatens the future existence of these markets.     

Nazi archaeology abroad: German prehistorians and the international dynamics of collaboration

Examining the work of German prehistoric archaeologists during the Third Reich reveals the importance of international scholarship in understanding how and why professional academics collaborated with the Nazi regime. Hare's article focuses on a specific cohort of German prehistorians at the University of Kiel and the Schleswig-Holstein Museum of Antiquities whose work was especially valued by Nazi ideologues. Through a study of their correspondence with colleagues at home and abroad, it identifies four key ways in which the international academic sphere informed collaboration at home, including the demands of foreign networks, the politics of cross-border projects and conferences, concerns about the reputation of German academia and the involvement of German archaeologists in occupied countries during the Second World War. Ultimately, this case study of Kiel archaeologists working during the 1930s and 1940s shows that engagement on the international level led both German and foreign scholars to make accommodations with the regime, but also at times led away from Nazi goals and provided a foundation for rebuilding the discipline after 1945.