A RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT TESTING INMATE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS*

Research Summary: In California, incarceration in the state prison system is in part organized by security level. The higher the security level, the more restrictive the setting. Upon arrival at a reception center, new inmates are scored within a classification system that is used to determine the appropriate level of security. In this paper, we report on the development and testing of a new inmate classification scoring system. Over 20,000 inmates took part in a randomized experiment in which half were assigned to their housing using the existing scoring system and half were assigned to their housing using the new scoring system. There were two key outcomes: (1) potential mismatches between the number of inmates assigned to different security levels and the available beds and (2) reports of inmate misconduct. Policy Implications: We conclude there to be some potential crowding problems, but that the new scoring system is much better than the old scoring system in sorting inmates by the likelihood of misconduct. We also conclude that some predictors popular in the past are no longer effective (e.g., marital status), while some new predictors are extremely powerful (e.g., gang activity), and that one can build in a number of mandatory housing placements (e.g., for sex offenders) and not degrade the overall effectiveness of the new classification system. Finally, the new classification system is shown to be more user‐friendly than the existing classification system and well received by the staff responsible for implementing it.     

‘TO BE,BUT NOT TO BE SEEN’: EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL CIVIL SERVANTS

International civil servants (ICS) are largely excluded from the analysis of International Organizations (IOs) because states are assumed to be the determining force in shaping their behaviour. Even principal‐agent and constructivist analyses often treat an IO’s staff as a unit and are concerned primarily with states’ capacities to control IOs. Examining the opportunities of ICS, rather than the choices of states, provides a better means of understanding the capacities of ICS to contribute to the operation of IOs, and especially when they participate in multilateral negotiations. We suggest that structure, competence, legitimacy and culture provide a framework for analysing ICS variable capacity. We use the Secretariat of the WTO, known as a ‘member‐driven organization’, to illustrate how ICS can play a critical role in achieving the IO’s objectives. A word on our title. It comes from Esse, non videri in the original, as quoted by a director at the WTO in an interview in April 2003.     

Inequality,Ethnicity, Political Mobilisation and Political Violence in Latin America: The Cases of Bolivia,Guatemala and Peru*

The paper explores the relationship between political violence and ‘horizontal’ inequality in ethnically‐divided countries in Latin America. The cases studied are Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru. Preliminary results are reported on the measurement of horizontal inequality, or that between groups, defined in cultural, ethnic and/or religious terms. The Latin American cases are shown to be often more unequal than the cases from Africa and Asia included in the wider study of which the work forms a part. The complex relationship between such inequality, ethnicity and political violence is explored historically. Ethnicity is today rarely a mobilising factor in violence in the Latin American cases, but the degree of inequality based on ethnicity is shown to be highly relevant to the degree of violence which results once conflict is instigated. History explains why.     

Correlation of age and ossification of the medial clavicular epiphysis using computed tomography

OBJECT: The aim of this study was the examination of relationship between the age and the ossification of medial epiphysis of the clavicle referred to CT examination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Concerning the epiphyseal ossification of the clavicle CT's of 100 patients (50 male and 50 female) between 16 and 25 years (10 patients for each year) were analyzed by three viewers. RESULTS: In the legal relevant age segment (16-25a) we saw a turnover from stage 3 to stage 4 at the age of 21 years. The calculated empiric distribution function showed 95% of stage 4 over 21 years while 75% of the patients with stage 3 were under 21 years. A reconstruction kernel suitable for osseous structures should be used, images should be viewed or presented in a bone window. CONCLUSION: According to these results it can be concluded that a person with stage 4 is probably 21 years or older, while a stage 3 leads to an estimated age under 21 years. On the other hand, a confidence level of 99.67% is not reached. Therefore, CT of the medial epiphysis of the clavicle will only be suitable for age estimation around the age of 21 years, if this relevant statistic obstacle is defeated. Bearing this in mind, further studies are needed to evaluate slice thickness as the most critical parameter.     

Headspace gas chromatographic determination of ethanol: the use of factorial design to study effects of blood storage and headspace conditions on ethanol stability and acetaldehyde formation in whole blood and plasma

Our headspace gas chromatographic flame ionization detection (HS-GC-FID) method for ethanol determination showed slightly, but consistently, low ethanol concentrations in whole blood (blood) in proficiency testing programs (QC-samples). Ethanol and acetaldehyde were determined using HS-GC-FID with capillary columns, headspace equilibration temperature (HS-T degrees ) of 70 degrees C and 20 min equilibration time (HS-EqT). Full factorial designs were used to study the variables HS-T degrees (50 degrees -70 degrees C), HS-EqT (15-25 min), ethanol concentration (0.20-1.20 g/kg) and storage at room temperature (0-6 days) with three sample-sets; plasma, hemolyzed blood and non-hemolyzed blood. A decrease in the ethanol concentration in blood was seen as a nearly equivalent increase in the acetaldehyde concentration. This effect was not observed in plasma, indicating chemical oxidation of ethanol to acetaldehyde in the presence of red blood cells. The variables showed different magnitude of effects in hemolyzed and non-hemolyzed blood. A decrease in ethanol concentration was seen even after a few days of storage and also when changing the HS-T degrees from 50 to 70 degrees C. The formation of acetaldehyde was dependent on all the variables and combinations of these (interactions) and HS-T degrees was involved in all the significant interaction effects. Favorable instrumental conditions were found to be HS-T degrees of 50 degrees C and HS-EqT of 15-25 min. The ethanol concentrations obtained for the range 0.04-2.5 g/kg after analyzing authentic forensic blood samples with a HS-T degrees of 50 degrees C were statistically significantly higher than at 70 degrees C (+0.0154 g/kg, p < 0.0001, n = 180). In conclusion, chemical oxidation of ethanol to acetaldehyde in the presence of red blood cells has been shown to contribute to lowered ethanol concentrations in blood samples. Storage conditions before analysis and the headspace equilibration temperature during analysis were important for the determination of blood ethanol concentrations.