Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

An examination of dependence power, father involvement, and judgments about violence in an at-risk community sample of mothers

Individuals sometimes remain in dysfunctional, and even violent, relationships due to a perceived dependence on a partner. We examined the influence of dependence power judgments (defined by a combined assessment of mother commitment, perceived father commitment, and perceived father alternatives) in a community sample of mothers potentially bound to a relationship with the father of her child. We also considered the influence of perceived father involvement in the child's life on judgments related to dependence power. Using a survey design with a sample of 100 mothers (age: 16-43, M = 29.16, SD = 7.17 years old) enrolled in a local Early Head Start/Head Start program, we observed that a mother's perceived father involvement was positively associated with judgments of her dependence power. Furthermore, we observed that her assessment of dependence power was negatively associated with her tolerance for both physical and psychological violence as well as the use of destructive child discipline tactics.     

Recruiting the Next Generation of Jail Employees: Does Generational Relevance or Agency Size Make a Difference?

Given their multiple functions, inadequate funding, and generally low visibility, America??s jails have sustained an ongoing struggle to recruit a sufficient quantity and quality of applicants to effectively fulfill their mission. Although the current economic downturn has temporarily curtailed turnover, postponed retirements, and intensified job competition, the cyclical nature of economic developments assures that jails will once again be forced into aggressive recruitment rivalry. To proactively address such upcoming challenges, it is essential to determine how jails can most productively target and select the best candidates. Providing information to assist jail administrators in that regard, a national survey was conducted to identify what attracted various age groups to jail employment, in order to ascertain whether a differential recruitment focus is needed to attract the new generation of workers. Jail size was also considered in terms of whether the ease or difficulty of progression through the selection screening process made a difference. Most revealing, however, was the lack of statistically-significant differences between various generational cohorts. Virtually all age groups were in substantial agreement that the extrinsic attractions of jail employment??such as salary, benefits, pension plan, and job stability--were their most important job consideration factors. Overall, findings point toward the recruitment benefit that jails may potentially derive from capitalizing on the advantages of being a steady rock of dependable employment, especially in times that are characterized by job insecurity and economic hardships.     

Going Through the Rites of Passage: Timing and Transition of Menarche,Childhood Sexual Abuse,and Anxiety Symptoms in Girls

Menarche is a discrete, transitional event that holds considerable personal, social, biological, and developmental significance. The present longitudinal study examined both the transition and timing of menarche on the trajectory of anxiety in girls with histories of childhood maltreatment (N = 93; 63% European American, 14% multiracial, 10% Latino, 9% African American, and 4% Native American). We hypothesized that because menarche is a novel, unfamiliar experience, girls would show greater anxiety around the time of menarche. The anxiety-provoking nature of menarche may be accentuated among earlier-maturing girls and girls with histories of childhood sexual abuse. Results indicated that earlier-maturing girls were more anxious in the pre- and peri-menarche periods than their later-maturing peers; however, their anxiety declined after menarche. Childhood sexual abuse was associated with heightened anxiety throughout this transition. The developmental significance of the timing and transition of menarche in relation to childhood sexual abuse and anxiety is discussed.     

Association of the MMPI-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) Validity Scales with Structured Malingering Criteria

The current study examined the validity scales of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath and Tellegen 2008) in relation to the structured malingering criteria developed to assess malingered neurocognitive dysfunction and pain-related disability. These criteria examined a sample of 251 individuals undergoing compensation-seeking evaluations, who completed a battery of response bias measures. The MMPI-2-RF over-reporting scales yielded large effect sizes in contrasting those in the probable/definite malingering groups from the incentive only groups. The largest effects were found for the Infrequent Responses and Gervais et al. (Assessment, 14, 196–208, 2007) Response Bias Scale, an experimental scale that can be scored on the MMPI-2-RF. Classification analyses were also utilized to examine various cut scores for the individual validity scales, as well as their use in combination. These results suggest that the MMPI-2-RF validity scales can be used to screen for malingering, as they exhibited good sensitivity at lower cutoffs. The implications of these results and their use in forensic evaluations are discussed.     

Lies and Free Speech Values

In the short time since Seana Shiffrin published Speech Matters, ‘fake news’ and ‘alternative facts’ have become full-blown phenomena, and various forces have destabilized the line between truth and falsity. Now more than ever, Shiffrin’s project is one of urgent importance. This essay examines Chapter Four of Speech Matters, which asks the crucial question: when and how may the law regulate lies? Shiffrin concludes that the law could regulate lies much more often than it does, though sometimes it ought not to for pragmatic reasons. For all of Shiffrin’s masterful explication, there is perhaps more to say in the space between Chapter Three’s moral account of free speech and Chapter Four’s legal one. Setting existing doctrine aside, how would a society translate the moral principles of Chapter Three into a system of law? Which worries are intrinsic to free speech, and which are purely pragmatic? In other words, what does a thinker-based account of law look like?