Establishing the Limits of TrueAllele® Casework: A Validation Study

The limits of the expert system, TrueAllele^® Casework (TA), were explored using challenging mock casework profiles that included 17 single‐source and 18 two‐, 15 three‐ and 7 four‐person DNA mixtures. The sensitivity (ability to detect a minor contributor) of the TA analysis process was examined by challenging the system with mixture DNA samples that exhibited allelic and locus dropout and other stochastic effects. The specificity (ability to exclude nondonors) was rigorously tested by interrogating TA derived genotypes with 100 nondonor profiles. The accuracy with which TA estimated mixture weights of contributors to the two‐person mixtures was examined. Finally, first‐degree relatives of donors were used to assess the ability of the system to exclude close relatives. TA demonstrated great accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. TA correctly assigned mixture weights and excluded nearly all first‐degree relatives. This study demonstrates the analysis power of the TrueAllele^® Casework system.     

The point break effect: an examination of surf,crime, and transitory opportunities

Opportunity theories of crime suggest that crime is highly specific and concentrated in time and space. Using these theories as a framework, this paper seeks to examine the transitory nature of crime. This hypothesis was tested using data from a coastal city in California to examine the relationship between surf conditions (measured at five daily time points) and number of crime incidents (n = 16,075). Crime totals were aggregated at the street segment level (n = 4551) for each day in 2011. These data were modeled using a series of panel negative binomial models, clustered by census block group. The findings suggest that surf conditions had an effect on the likelihood of crime incidents, but these effects were time specific. Favorable surf conditions were associated with increases in crime only between 2:30 pm and 5:29 pm. Additionally, locations closer to surf spots were associated with more crime, relative to locations farther away. Closer examination of micro-geographies aids in understanding how systematic shifts in routine activities affect the frequency and location of crime, and allows crime prevention to be more specialized and efficient. Adding to the extant understanding of hot times and opportunity structures will enable more effective allocation of resources and predictive policing efforts.     

Beyond the Ballot Box: Changing Patterns of Political Protest Participation in Germany (1974–2008)

This article deals with the development of ‘unconventional’ political participation in Germany between 1974 and 2008. Our aim is to describe empirically the evolution of protest actions across time and differences between east and west. Moreover, we strive to unveil explanatory factors by analysing data from the Political Action Survey (1974/75) and the European Values Study (2008) in regard to lawful demonstrations. For this purpose, we draw on scholarly writing and test the causal effects of socio-demographic, social-structural and attitudinal factors. Our findings show that participation in lawful protest forms is not anymore a minoritarian, exceptional or unconventional act of political claims making, but a normal aspect of political behaviour. Demonstrations do not recruit exclusively a specific constituency with a clear social profile, but rather citizens from different social backgrounds and orientations. Moreover, our data suggest a gradual convergence between East and West Germany.     

Egg freezing,stratified reproduction and the logic of not

This commentary examines social and political implications of social egg freezing in a market that is stratified, globalized, and part of a larger bioeconomy. John Robertson''s article and public discourse prompted by Facebook and Apple''s ‘corporate egg freezing’ benefits provide touchstones for interrogating social and industry practices that embrace making reproductive capacity marketable. Supply of the cells and bodies necessary for assisted reproductive technology use depends on market thinking and structural inequality. What the industry produces are carefully calibrated social-political distances between participants in egg freezing and banking, as well as ‘third party reproduction.’     

THE PERSISTENCE OF POVERTY IN THE CONTEXT OF FINANCIAL INSTABILITY: A BEHAVIORAL PERSPECTIVE

We review recent findings regarding the psychology of decisionmaking in contexts of poverty, and consider their application to public policy. Of particular interest are the oft‐neglected psychological and behavioral consequences of economic scarcity coupled with financial instability. The novel framework highlights the psychological costs of low and unstable incomes, and how these can transform small and momentary financial hurdles into long‐lasting poverty traps. Financial instability, we suggest, not only has obvious economic ramifications for well‐being, but it also creates the need for constant focus and attention, and can distract from the very opportunities otherwise designed to alleviate the effects of poverty. We describe a variety of public policy strategies that emerge from this perspective that are not readily apparent in conventional theories that permeate the design of social programs.     

Lay theories of suicide among Austrian psychology undergraduates

Lester and Bean's (1992) Attribution of Causes to Suicide Scale gauges lay theories of suicide including intrapsychic problems, interpersonal conflicts, and societal forces as causes. Results obtained with its German form (n=165 Austrian psychology undergraduates) showed no sex differences and no social-desirability effects. Intriguingly, all three subscales were moderately intercorrelated, thereby indicating respondents' general agreement (or disagreement) with all three theories. Thus, the critical dimension of lay theories of suicide appears to be the belief that suicide has definite causes (regardless of type) versus that it is without causes (unpredictable). In addition, religiosity was positively associated (and overall knowledge about suicide negatively associated) with belief in intrapsychic causes, whereas liberal political views were negatively associated with belief in interpersonal causes.     

Ethnic Identity and Family Processes Among Adolescents from Latin American,Asian, and European Backgrounds

Ninth graders (N = 679; 50% male, 50% female) from Latin American (41%), Asian (38%), and European (21%) backgrounds reported on their ethnic identity and family attitudes and relationships. Adolescents also completed daily checklists of family interactions over a two-week period. Results indicated that ethnic identity, measured through exploration and belonging was more strongly associated with family obligation and assistance than with parent–child closeness and family leisure time. Adolescents from Latin American and Asian backgrounds reported significantly higher levels of obligation and assistance as compared to adolescents with European backgrounds, and these ethnic differences were mediated by ethnic identity. Longitudinal analyses indicated ongoing associations, with ethnic identity predicting respect and obligation one year later. The discussion focuses on the role of ethnic identity in children’s family connectedness during adolescence.

Uncounted Votes: Informal Voting in the House of Representatives as a Marker of Political Exclusion in Australia

This article examines the implications of high levels of informal (or invalid) voting in Australian national elections using a social exclusion framework. The rate of the informal vote is an indicator of social and political exclusion with particular groups of Australians experiencing inordinate electoral disadvantage. Poorer voters, voters from non‐English speaking backgrounds and those with low education levels are especially disadvantaged by factors peculiar to the Australian voting experience. We begin by exploring the character and pattern of informal voting and then canvass the technical and socio‐economic factors which explain it. We conclude by considering proposed options for reducing informality, some of which are: the abandonment of compulsory voting, major structural change to the voting system as well as ballot re‐design, electoral education and community information initiatives.     

Towards agonistic peacebuilding? Exploring the antagonism–agonism nexus in the Middle East Peace process

Many contemporary conflicts are framed as antagonistic and difficult to resolve because of their zero-sum framing among the disputants. This article addresses the antagonism–agonism nexus and the political and contested nature of building peace. It has a three-fold aim: (1) to critically assess the interplay between constructive and destructive dynamics; (2) to analyse the circumstances under which conflict may move from antagonism to agonism; and (3) to advance the novel notion of agonistic peacebuilding. The Middle East Peace process is used as a critical case of intractable conflict to elucidate the enabling and restraining conditions for agonistic peacebuilding.