Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Congressional apportionment and the fourteenth amendment

This paper examines state interest in the nine bases of congressional seat apportionment considered for the House of Representatives as part of the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution. We ask, what if voters preferred apportionments that delivered larger vote shares to their state? We then show that among all states, one basis of apportionment was a weak Condorcet winner, while the others were in a vote cycle. In both chambers of Congress, however, pure majority voting created orderings of the nine bases and a different Condorcet winner. Ironically, Congress did not select either Condorcet winner. Instead, a population-based apportionment was reported out of committee and passed both chambers as a consequence of agenda control and lack of pairwise voting. Our analysis provides an example of how agenda setting with incomplete information unintentionally can produce undesirable outcomes for a legislature.

     

Global policymakers and catastrophic risk

Policy Sciences - There is a rapidly developing literature on risks that threaten the whole of humanity, or a large part of it. Discussion is increasingly turning to how such risks can be governed....     

苏里南——文化多元化的缩影

苏里南是一个既年轻又古老的国家。目前,在全球化进程越来越快的大环境和本国力求更好地适应大环境以求发展的情况下,苏里南逐渐融入整个世界大文化中,形成了具有"苏里南特色"的多元文化。这种文化现象不仅仅只发生在苏里南,当今的许多亚、非、拉国家正经历着与苏里南相似或相同的过程,因此,深入探讨和研究苏里南社会的文化现象具有借鉴意义。本文从苏里南的人口、族群的构成、土著人对本国历史的影响、苏里南语言的形成及目前国内存在的宗教问题等诸方面,从社会学的角度分析了苏里南在经历了几百年的西方殖民统治之后的国家概念的重要性及由此产生的重大影响。20世纪后半叶苏里南取得独立,之后发生的社会变化、目前存在的社会问题及应采用何种方式解决这些社会问题,应引起广泛关注。