DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ALCOHOL USE IN RELATION TO THE PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE OF SERIOUS VIOLENT OFFENDING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN AND CAUCASIAN YOUNG MEN*

This study examined the association of alcohol use with the persistence and desistance of serious violent offending among African American and Caucasian young men from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Five violence groups were defined: nonviolent, late‐onsetters, desisters, persisters, and one‐time offenders. We examined alcohol use trajectories for these groups spanning 12 through 24/25 years of age using a four‐piecewise linear growth model s 12–14, 14–18, 18–21, and 21–24/25 years of age. The persisters and desisters reported the highest levels of drinking at 13 years of age. From 14 to 18 years old, however, the late‐onsetters showed a higher rate of increase in drinking, compared with the persisters and desisters. Starting at 18 years of age, the desisters’ drinking trajectory started to resemble that of the nonviolent group, who showed the highest rate of increase in drinking during emerging adulthood. By 24/25 years of age, the persisters could not be distinguished from the late‐onsetters, but they were lower than the nonviolent and one‐timer groups in terms of their drinking. At 24/25 years old, the desisters were not significantly different from the other violence groups, although they seemed most similar to the nonviolent and one‐timer groups. We found no evidence that the association between drinking and violence differed for African Americans and Caucasians. The findings suggest that yearly changes in alcohol use could provide important clues for preventing violent offending.     

公法契约之控制─从公私合伙架构谈起

针对公私合伙制度(PPPs)下之契约,探究其系公法契约或是私法契约,具有实际意义。英国、德国及美国在公私合伙制度下之发展进程,值得关注;特别是英国成功发展的PPPs,建构"公法下之政府契约"及"私法下之政府契约"之模式足资赞许;德国针对PPPs下之投资契约,是否适合置入于行政程序法下之行政性契约,相关立法沿革,值得注意与效法;而美国行政任务私有化后,行政机关对外购买服务,公权力充分与私部门分享,而未建构监督与契约治理机制,堪致忧虑,特别是契约外包之下,相关法律不禁止境外转包,则服务之质量与法律正当性受到质疑。     

ROMANTIC PARTNERS' INFLUENCE ON MEN'S LIKELIHOOD OF ARREST IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Female romantic partners' influence on official crime occurrence for men across a 12‐year period in early adulthood was examined within a comprehensive dynamic prediction model, including both social learning and social control predictors. We hypothesized that relationship stability, rather than attachment to partner, would be associated with reduced likelihood of crime, whereas women's antisocial behavior would be a risk factor, along with deviant peer association. Models were tested on a sample of at‐risk men [the Oregon Youth Study (OYS)] using zero‐inflated Poisson (ZIP) modeling predicting 1) arrest persistence (class and count) and 2) arrest onset class. The findings indicated that women's antisocial behavior was predictive of both onset and persistence of arrests for men and that deviant peer association was predictive of persistence. Relationship stability was protective against persistence.     

IMMIGRATION AND CRIME IN AN ERA OF TRANSFORMATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDES IN SAN DIEGO NEIGHBORHOODS, 1980–2000*

Emerging research associated with the “immigration revitalization” perspective suggests that immigration has been labeled inaccurately as a cause of crime in contemporary society. In fact, crime seems to be unexpectedly low in many communities that exhibit high levels of the following classic indicators of social disorganization: residential instability, ethnic heterogeneity, and immigration. But virtually all research conducted to date has been cross-sectional in nature and therefore unable to demonstrate how the relationship between immigration and crime might covary over time. This limitation is significant, especially because current versions of social disorganization theory posit a dynamic relationship between structural factors and crime that unfolds over time. The current study addresses this issue by exploring the effects of immigration on neighborhood-level homicide trends in the city of San Diego, California, using a combination of racially/ethnically disaggregated homicide victim data and community structural indicators collected for three decennial census periods. Consistent with the revitalization thesis, results show that the increased size of the foreign-born population reduces lethal violence over time. Specifically, we find that neighborhoods with a larger share of immigrants have fewer total, non-Latino White, and Latino homicide victims. More broadly, our findings suggest that social disorganization in heavily immigrant cities might be largely a function of economic deprivation rather than forms of “neighborhood” or “system” stability.     

Withering in the Heat? In Search of the Regulatory State in the Commonwealth Caribbean

This article explores the “regulatory state hypothesis” in the context of electricity and telecommunications regulation in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. This article questions whether institutional features associated with the regulatory state are triggered by a preference for efficiency and added complexity within the policy domain. This article progresses in three steps. After setting out the regulatory state hypothesis as derived from the work by Giandomenico Majone and its empirical consequences, the article explores the four cases in brief. Although the empirical evidence broadly supports the regulatory state hypothesis across domains, states and over time, some puzzles in terms of reform trajectories and extent of regulatory reform do emerge. The final section explores these puzzles through an actor‐centered institutional perspective. It is suggested that the “regulatory state hypothesis” may be useful for predicting institutional arrangements, but has difficulty in accounting for the extent of regulatory reform and timing.     

The New Public Management Reform and Governance in Asian NICs: A Comparison of Hong Kong and Singapore1

This article compares the New Public Management (NPM) reform in Hong Kong and Singapore. First of all, it highlights how the macroeconomic environment, the political system, and state traditions, factors that are commonly identified as affecting the pattern of NPM reform in western liberal democracies, assume different contexts and significance in affecting reform in Asian states. With these general factors, we further compare the NPM reform of these two Asian newly industrialized countries in the areas of economic, administrative, and social governance, and identify the similarities and differences in the objectives of reform, the levels of reform, and the factors affecting such reform in these two cases.