CLUMSY SOLUTIONS FOR A COMPLEX WORLD: THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Successful solutions to pressing social ills tend to consist of innovative combinations of a limited set of alternative ways of perceiving and resolving the issues. These contending policy perspectives justify, represent and stem from four different ways of organizing social relations: hierarchy, individualism, egalitarianism and fatalism. Each of these perspectives: (1) distils certain elements of experience and wisdom that are missed by the others; (2) provides a clear expression of the way in which a significant portion of the populace feels we should live with one another and with nature; and (3) needs all of the others in order to be sustainable. ‘Clumsy solutions’– policies that creatively combine all opposing perspectives on what the problems are and how they should be resolved – are therefore called for. We illustrate these claims for the issue of global warming.     

TRENDS IN VIOLENT CRIME AMONG EX-MENTAL PATIENTS

A central component of the public's conception of the mentally ill is that they are dangerous. This belief receives support from recent studies of the arrest rates of ex-mental patients which suggest that arrests for violent crimes have increased. In order to investigate this issue, samples were taken at two points in time. Analysis of arrest rates revealed that very few ex-mental patients were subsequently arrested for violent crimes, although these rates were higher and increasing faster than these of the general population. Mast significant were the findings that subsequent arrests were best explained by the number of prior arrests and that the percentage of patients with a history of criminal behavior has increased dramatically over time. The implications of these trends in violent crime among ex-mental patients for the perceived link between mental illness and violence and for the social control functions of society are discussed.     

ASSESSING LENGTH OF INSTlTUTIONALIZATION IN RELATION TO PAROLE OUTCOME

This study assesses the relative impact of different lengths of imprisonment upon parole outcome, for narcotic law violotors, while holding other factors constant. Three alternative procedures for measuring association (r, ø and r_t) were each used in parallel base expectancy analyses on the same data base. The study group consists of 929 narcotic law violators who were paroled in 50 jurisdictions. Parole performance ws derived after a twe-year follow-up period The 1968 parolees were used to develop offender risk ratings. These ratings were applied to 1969 parolees to determine whether they would be associated with parole outcome in a new sample. The three methods worked about the same for developing offender risk ratings. Once personal characteristics of offenders were taken into considemtion, the number of months served had no consistent relationship to parole outcome. This remained true for all three parallel techniques used.     

WAGE INEQUALITY AND CRIMINAL ACTIVITY: AN EXTREME BOUNDS ANALYSIS FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1975–1990*

The past decades in the United States have been characterized by a widening in the distribution of wage income. While much research has attempted to uncover the causes of these earnings trends, much less is known about their impact upon social and economic factors. This study examines evidence for links between changes in distribution of wage income and criminal activity. Using extreme bounds analysis in conjunction with ordinary least squares regression, the study shows that robust results linking wage inequality and crime are obtainable across a rich set of model specifications for the violent crimes of murder and assault. No evidence is found linking wage inequality with the crimes of robbery and burglary. Results are inconclusive for larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and forcible rape. These results should be viewed as a first stage in examining the link between wage inequality and criminal activity. Research into the specific behavioral complexities underlying these relationships should be considered to affirm these results.