Commentary: The Logistics of Actionable Intelligence Leading to 9/11

Uncertainty is a hallmark of conflict behavior, and other forms of violence that accompany civil and international war—such as low-intensity warfare, guerrilla, insurgency, and asymmetric conflict—are no exception. This study applied the theory of political uncertainty and complexity theory to the analysis of conflict events during the first three years of the second Iraq war, 2003–2006, limited to the Diyala province. Findings show that neither the time between attacks T or the severity of attacks S (fatalities) have the “normal” (bell-shaped) or lognormal distribution that is characteristic of equilibrium systems. Instead, both variables showed heavy tails, symptomatic of non-equilibrium dynamics, in some cases approximating a power law with critical or near critical exponent value of 2. The empirical hazard force analysis in both cases showed that the intensity was high for the first epoch in both variables (March 2003 to June 2004) but even higher in the latter period from July 2004 to March 2006. Selected policy implications are discussed, including the possibility that real-time or near real-time analysis of the data analyzed through the uncertainty-complexity computational methods would have revealed the gathering momentum of adversarial attacks perhaps in time to have prevented the insurgency.     

Looking for the Pattern: Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia--The Genealogy of a Terror Network

The aim of this study is to analyze the process by which Al Qaeda has sought to co-opt essentially localized struggles in Southeast Asia into an evolving network of worldwide jihad. The article illustrates how, long before it was appropriate to speak of an entity called Al Qaeda, Islamists have been thinking transnationally since the 1980s. The argument attempts to piece together available evidence to reveal a plausible explanation of the origins, growth and direction of the main Islamist grouping in Southeast Asia, Jemaah Islamiyah, and its deepening relationship with Al Qaeda. The article suggests that the roots of a Southeast Asian terror network can be traced to two geographically separate ethno-religious struggles in the Philippines and Indonesia. The analysis demonstrates that these guerrilla groups orchestrating their distinct struggles were eventually combined through the auspices of Al Qaeda and the globalized franchising opportunities it exploited from the early 1990s.‐     

SCIENCE,PUBLIC POLICY,AND THE CAREER PARADIGM*

The career model reappears with some consistency in the history of criminology. It consistently fails, however, to organize the facts about crime in a meaningful way. As a consequence, we predict that criminology will once again abandon career models in favor of theories of crime.     

ADMINISTRATIVE LAW AND JUDICIAL REVIEW – THE PRACTICAL EFFECTS QF DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS ON ADMINISTRATION IN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

The writer of this article served in the legal civil service from 1951–1984, mainly in the Board of Trade and its successor departments but from 1980–1984 as Treasury Solicitor. The article reflects his personal views based on this experience. Its theme is that, although access to the courts has been made easier for the citizen aggrieved by an administrative decision, and court procedure has been greatly improved, the course of administration has been less dramatically affected – in fact little, if at all, by some important earlier cases. Nevertheless the spirit of administrative law is now becoming more widely diffused, the areas which are not subject to review are becoming less and a number of specific doctrines have been developed which affect administration. The following are particularly emphasized: (1) the courts’restrictive view of the ‘Wednesbury’ doctrine and their tendency to find other grounds to overide decisions which they find objectionable or unreasonable – a tendency which causes real administrative difficulty; (2) the recently enunciated doctrine of legitimate expectation whose limits are uncertain but which may have considerable effect on administration in future; and (3) the requirement that a person affected by a policy should be given an opportunity to show that he is a special case. Finally the writer has to emphasize that his personal experience ended in August 1984 when he retired. In a large organization such as the civil service a change of ethos is slow. He is assured by some, particularly Mr John Bailey cb , his successor as Treasury Solicitor, who has read this article in draft, that he understates the degree to which concepts of administrative law are infusing the whole spirit of administration, and even more directly, the short-term effects in individual departments such as the Department of the Environment which has been the subject of long-running campaigns directed by other bodies against it through the courts.     

POLICE DISRESPECT TOWARD THE PUBLIC: AN ENCOUNTER‐BASED ANALYSIS*

We use observations of police encounters with 3,130 suspects in Indianapolis and St. Petersburg to estimate three influences on police disrespect: how suspects behave, their personal characteristics, and the location of the encounter. Logistic regression models show that suspects' behaviors were the most powerful predictors, but the suspect's sex, age, income, and degree of neighborhood disadvantage were also significant. Minority suspects experienced disrespect less often than whites (statistically significant in the hierarchical analysis controlling for degree of neighborhood disadvantage). These effects are concentrated in St. Petersburg, where the chief had made the suppression of police abuses a visible priority. The findings offer partial confirmation of Donald Black's theory of law.