Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in U.S. House Elections

Research on candidate competition has focused on how much context matters in emergence decisions and election outcomes. If a candidate has previously held elected office, one additional consideration that may influence entry decisions is the relative degree of overlap between the candidate's current constituency and the “new” set of voters she is seeking to represent. Using GIS software, we derive a measure of the challenger's personal vote by focusing on constituency congruency between state legislative and congressional districts. Results suggest state legislators are more likely to run for a seat in the U.S. House if constituency congruency is relatively high.     

ROLE OF THE STREET NETWORK IN BURGLARS' SPATIAL DECISION‐MAKING*

Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that “taste” preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.     

DENYING THE GUILTY MIND: ACCOUNTING FOR INVOLVEMENT IN A WHITE-COLLAR CRIME*

This study of convicted white-collar offenders treats their explanations for involvement in criminal activities. It focuses specifically on the techniques that are used to deny criminality. The strategies used to accomplish this end are detailed. It is suggested that the accounts developed by white-collar offenders to explain involvement in criminal activities are structured by the mechanics, histories, and organizational formats of offenses and by the requirement that they defeat the conditions of successful degradation ceremonies. In conclusion, some preliminary observations concerning the causes of white-collar crime are made.     

HOW TO BE SOPHISTICATED, LIE, CHEAT, BLUFF AND WIN AT POLITICS

Abstract. This paper presents an informal argument about the relationship between strategic interaction and'economic'theories of political processes. It is concerned with interactions between small groups of rational actors, in which each knows the preferences of the others and is attempting to get the better of the others. In these circumstances, the outcome is usually determined by the strategic interaction involved and is often, therefore, rather unstable. Since formal models in themselves do not help us very much to interpret the processes involved, the bulk of the paper is concerned with an analysis of various aspects of strategic interaction. These include being sophisticated, lying, cheating and bluffing.     

COMPUTERIZING THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM: AN OPERATIONAL STRATEGY IN LIEU OF A POLICY STRATEGY?

The operational strategy for social security — how to computerize one of the largest manually-dominated ‘sort, act and file’ operations in the country — is the emerging product of work which began in 1977 and has thus far produced a discussion document (DHSS 1980), a strategy proposals document (DHSS 1982), a high-level seminar (DHSS 1983) and a wide range of consultations. A ministerial response to the strategy — likely to be the go-ahead with only marginal amendments — was due before now but was delayed because of the general election. What are the insights which the development of this strategy provides for those interested in public policy analysis? What are the questions which its nature and prospects poses for public administration? This paper is concerned not with the technical issues involved in the development of feasible database strategies but with the issues to which the strategy gives rise. After a brief outline of the main features of the operational strategy, it discusses the possible implications of the strategy for clients of the social security system, and then examines some issues of policy co-ordination, inheritance and flexibility thrown up by the exercise.