Pioneering New Politics or Rearranging the Deckchairs? The 2007 National Assembly for Wales Election and Results

This article analyses the campaign, results and outcome of the 2007 elections to the National Assembly for Wales. It discusses the constitutional and legislative framework of devolution in Wales, the election campaign and opinion polls. There is extensive analysis of the election results, the performance of each of the main and some of the smaller parties. Shifts in representation of women and ethnic minority AMs and departures and new arrivals are covered. There is discussion of changes in electoral turnout and the proportionality of the outcome, which is low and has declined since 2003. The final substantive section deals with the complexities of the post-election coalition negotiations, while events in Wales are placed in the context of international experiences around the formation of coalition governments     

SOME MISLEADING CONCEPTIONS IN SENTENCING RESEARCH

Most studies of sentencing practices in both adult and juvenile courts have compared the relative power to predict dispositions of “legal” variables, such as the seriousness of offense and previous arrest record, and “extralegal” variables, such as race and social class. It is suggested that this is a misleading model for research on the decision-making process in juvenile courts. Instead, results presented here indicate that the juvenile court uses a model of substantive decision-making oriented toward the character and social environment of offenders. Social background variables are found to be more important determinants of disposition than either “legal” or “extralegal” variables.     

Legal Aim, Discretion, and Social Control

This study attempts to ascertain how the legal a i m of rehabilitation are applied, as well as their social control consequences for a group of offenders sentenced under the Federal Youth Corrections Act (FYCA) of 1950. Discriminant function analyses were conducted on a random sample of 452 persons selected f o r a "special" FYCA rehabilitative disposition and 758 persons accorded a regular punitive disposition, to determine 1) the factors that influence the judge's choice between these two outcomes; and 2) if persons sentenced under the special rehabilitative provision spend more or less time incarcerated, relative to those given a regular disposition Our analyses indicate that age is the single discriminator of much significance in determining whether an offender is given a FYCA or regular disposition, with younger persons more likely to receive rehabilitative treatment. Little support was found for the contention that greater intrusiveness of social control inevitably results from adoption of a rehabilitative form of social control as opposed to a regular punitive disposition. The implications of these findings for the application and consequences of the FYCA are discussed.     

POLICY MAKING AND THE DEMONSTRATION EFFECT: PRIVATIZATION IN A DEPRIVED REGION

The aims of public policies are not always clearly articulated by ministers. Further the aims that are stated may not reflect all – or indeed the most important – aims. In some cases declared policy aims bear little relationship to the real intentions of ministers in undertaking an initiative. In other cases policy decisions are intended as symbolic statements, demonstrating government attitudes on a range of issues beyond the specific matter under consideration. These ideas are explored in the context of the privatizations of Harland and Wolff and Shorts, two major industrial government-owned companies in Northern Ireland. The article concludes that government sought to use the privatizations as a symbolic statement, namely to demonstrate that the heavy dependence on the public sector within Northern Ireland had to be reduced.