Spies and Policymakers: Intelligence in the Information Age

Massive changes and continuous developments in the uses and applications of technology and communications have changed the way we see the world. The Information Revolution has had an impact upon intelligence collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination, and upon the way policymakers can access reliable information, in a timely manner, and upon the sources they are most likely to rely on when a specific piece of information is needed to support a decision. This study attempts to describe, analyze and explain the nature of the ongoing Information Revolution, to present its main impacts on the intelligence and policy communities, to discuss the relationship between the Intelligence Community and policymakers, and to propose what the IC should do to meet the high expectations of decision-makers.     

The challenges to Mexico in times of political change

Mexico is making the transitionfrom an authoritarian to a democraticsociety. It has significant criminaljustice and public security challenges inthis new era of its political history. Mexico's law enforcement institutions stilllack accountability and the trust of thepeople. Although President Vicente Fox hasdeclared that he will improve publicsecurity and reform law enforcement, he hadfailed to produce significant results thusfar. In order for Fox to achieve thesegoals, he must implement institutionalaccountability and transparency, improveintelligence collection capabilities tocombat organized crime and drugtrafficking, and develop a more broad basedeconomy that will benefit all of Mexico.     

The Evolution of Jihadist Terrorism in Morocco

Over the last few years, Moroccans have been disproportionately involved in jihadist terrorism. Morocco has been increasingly identified as one of the largest producers of terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout Europe. This article examines the factors behind the emergence of jihadist terrorism in Morocco, and how this terrorist threat has gone beyond this country's borders. Three factors have contributed to this development: the influence of global jihad on potential Moroccan jihadists; the growing Islamization of the country; and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In analyzing these variables, special attention will be paid to the Casablanca terrorist attacks on May 16, 2003, marking the debut of suicide terrorism in Morocco. The article will also examine the principal counterterrorist initiatives Morocco has implemented in response to this threat.     

New partnerships for social development: business and the third sector

One of the main issues for Latin America now that it is entering a new period of economic growth is the process of speeding up social development to catch up with economic trends. This may be seen by some as a highly profitable investment, but by most as a moral obligation. A long history of exploitation and the most recent decades of misgovernment have provoked a legacy of social injustice and disparities incompatible with the region's economic potential.

Structural adjustment policies impose a significant reduction in the size of governments which have shown an unequivocal tendency to retreat from their responsibilities regarding the social sector. Current trends of the new world order raise many concerns regarding the social perspectives of the less privileged layers of the population.

Besides the new economic opportunities, redemocratization of the region has led to a new socio-political environment in which paternalistic patterns have given way to a more participatory and mature relationship between government, civil society and business.

The so-called third sector has become of increasing importance and is growing rapidly in most countries. Business is also assuming new roles in terms of its responsibility towards social development. There is a change in culture and there are new opportunities to develop innovative forms of participation. The retreat of the State is opening up a new niche for the third sector and business to establish partnerships that can speed up social development without the risks of the heavy paternalistic and patronizing influence of governmental branches. Overall, one can observe a shift in responsibilities. Partnerships will involve the three actors, with government participating heavily in financing the operations of the third sector, while business lends its’ efficiency as well as material resources.

The business sector in Latin America is rapidly learning the social responsibility of participating in community initiatives and the benefits that such an approach can bring. Foreign companies have played an important role in bringing new values, strategies and experience of this participation. Local businessmen are adopting these values and adjusting them to their realities. The new economic and political environments have created a new sense of citizenship and there is an observable advance in the approach that business is taking in relation to the potential of its participation and of its responsibilities regarding social growth and development.

Corporate philanthropy -- or community relations, or corporate citizenship, as the local culture prefers to call it -- assumes several forms. Grantmaking is still the least frequent as companies prefer to maintain tighter control over the use of resources, either by operating their own projects in a joint effort with target communities, or by establishing partnerships with small organizations of the third sector. Stimulating volunteer work of their employees is also a form of participation.

More recently, in countries like Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico we have witnessed the emergence of associations of grantmakers and philanthropists, similar to those of the United States. Through these organizations, corporations, corporate foundations and independent foundations can share their experiences and values, coordinate their efforts and exert influence in the social and political environment.     

Exchange rate volatility in high inflation economies: An econometric study of Poland and Brazil

This paper analyses exchange rate series for Poland and Brazil. The Polish series, related to the period soon after the first liberalizing measures, presents a high volatility which is not accounted for by some selected ‘fundamentals’. The Brazilian series, though also keeping evidence of excessive volatility, is cointegrated with fundamentals similar to those of the Polish case. This raises the issue of a learning process taking place during persistent inflations. Unsuccessful one-shot stabilization plans can reinforce this process, leaving a lasting imprint in the excessive volatility pattern. The message seems clear, though maybe not easy to implement: agents take some time to learn to live in non-stable environments; to avoid this by one-shot measures — if unsuccessful — can have a very high cost and pre-empt future corrections.