Do PCL-R scores from state or defense experts best predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders?

In a recent study of sex offender civil commitment proceedings, Murrie et al. (Psychol Public Policy Law 15:19-53, 2009) found that state-retained experts consistently assigned higher PCL-R total scores than defense-retained experts for the same offenders (Cohen's d > .83). This finding raises an important question about the validity of these discrepant scores: Which type of score, state or defense evaluator, provides the most useful information about risk? We examined the ability of PCL-R total scores from state and defense evaluators to predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders (N = 38). For comparison, we also examined predictive validity when two state experts evaluated the same offender (N = 32). Agreement between evaluators was low for cases with opposing experts (ICCA,1 = .43 to .52) and for cases with two state experts (ICCA,1 = .40). Nevertheless, scores from state and defense experts demonstrated similar levels of predictive validity (AUC values in the .70 range), although scores from different types of state evaluators (corrections-contracted vs. prosecution-retained) did not. The finding of mean differences between opposing evaluator scores, but similar levels of predictive validity, suggests that scores from opposing experts in SVP cases may need to be interpreted differently depending on who assigned them. Findings have important implications for understanding how rater disagreement may relate to predictive validity.     

Protection orders protect against assault and injury: a longitudinal study of police-involved women victims of intimate partner violence

The objective of this study was to measure the efficacy of protection orders (POs) in reducing assault and injury-related outcomes using a matched comparison group and tracking outcomes over time. This study was a retrospective review of police, emergency department, family court, and prosecutor administrative records for a cohort of police-involved female IPV victims; all events over a 4-year study period were abstracted. Victims who obtained POs were compared with a propensity-score-based match group without POs over three time periods: Before, During, and After the issuance of a PO. Having a PO in place was associated with significantly more calls to police for nonassaultive incidents and more police charging requests that were of multiple-count and felony-level. Comparing outcomes, PO victims had police incident rates that were more than double the matched group prior to the PO but dropped to the level of the matched group during and after the order. ED visits dropped over time for both groups. This study confirmed the protective effect of POs, which are associated with reduced police incidents and emergency department visits both during and after the order and reduced police incidents compared with a matched comparison group.     

Crimes by Visitors Versus Crimes by Residents: The Influence of Visitor Inflows

Objectives

To disaggregate the crime impact of visitor inflows. There is increasing evidence that visitors can make a major contribution to levels of crime in a given neighbourhood: crimes by visiting offenders may add to those committed by local offenders, while visitors (and their property) may provide local offenders with additional opportunities for crime.

Methods

Using police-recorded crime data for a large Eastern Canadian city we determined whether individuals charged or chargeable for property and violent crimes were visitors or residents of census tracts (CT) where crimes had been committed. This information was combined with data from a large transportation survey, allowing us to estimate daily population flows into each CT for four purposes (work, shopping, recreation, and education). Negative binomial regression models including spatial lags were used.

Results

An increase in visitor inflow not only increases the number of visitors charged with crimes but also the number of local residents charged. These effects vary significantly by visit purpose: more infractions are committed in tracts where visits are for recreation and, to a lesser extent, for shopping. Findings for work and education are mixed.

Conclusions

One important implication of our results is that, because most studies of aggregate crime counts or rates fail to account for whether crimes have been committed by visitors or residents, previous research may have provided hasty, partial, or even erroneous explanations for crime concentrations.

     

Studying Perceptions of Juror Influence In Vivo: A Social Relations Analysis

Because of legal constraints and statistical limitations there has been little research on social influence in actual juries. We used Kenny's (1994) social relations model to examine jurors' perceptions of social influence in the jury. After rendering a verdict in criminal or civil court cases, jurors rated how influential each member of the jury had been and provided self-reports of their personality traits. Perceptions of influence in the jury were mostly in the eye of the beholder, with jurors high in Conscientiousness and low in Openness being most likely to report that they were personally influenced by other jurors. There were small but statistically significant levels of consensus in the ratings of how influential the jurors were. To the extent that they did agree, jurors rated extraverted, tall men as most influential.     

Capital, Trade, and the Political Economies of Reform

Existing approaches to the study of economic reform have focused on the mobilization of special interests that oppose liberalization and have tended to assume that reform dynamics follow a similar logic across distinct policy arenas. Analysis of the dynamics of capital account and trade liberalization in 19 Latin American countries between 1985 and 1999 demonstrates otherwise. Movement toward liberalization is shaped systematically by the timing and salience of each reform's distributional costs and partisan political dynamics. In turn, the timing and magnitude of costs are mediated by the economic context, while salience depends on the informational environment. Our findings thus differ from the conventional wisdom on several scores, particularly by emphasizing the ways in which good rather than bad economic conditions can facilitate reforms, the conditionality of legislative politics of reform enactment on whether reforms are characterized by ex ante conflict or fears of ex post blame, and how the type of reform shapes its political dynamics .     

合作的想象

对民族志进行反思的过程,包括了对田野研究中民族志学者与当地报告人之间的合作关系的重新思考和定位,对与民族志文本伴随始终的想象特质的正视和承认,以及对民族志所承担的任务和作用的重新认识。在全球化的当下,人类学的民族志是民族志学者和对自己的角色有主见、有认识的地方合作者共同制造的想象,而民族志的功能则是对这种合作的关系进行深入的分析、研究,作为一个媒介而不是真理的知识,让人们能够了解、研究这种合作关系。     

Salience: Agenda choices by competing candidates

Which issues are discussed by candidates in an election campaign? Why are some issues never discussed? Model tractability is lost quickly when dealing with these questions, partly because of the multidimensional voting inherent in models of multiple issues. Our model features two candidates for office who can talk about any subset of issues, allowing uncertainty both on the part of voters and candidates, and taking candidates to be office motivated. Candidates move first and simultaneously, announcing any positions they choose on any issues. To us, salience is simply the discussion of an issue in a campaign. If both candidates and voters are expected utility maximizers, we find salience results, in that candidates typically want to talk about everything (or they are indifferent between talking and nonsalience). Leaving the expected utility framework, we present an example using “Knightian uncertainty” or “maxmin expected utility with multiple priors” of Gilboa–Schmeidler to illustrate how robust nonsalience and salience of issues might be generated.