Allocating resources among AIDS research strategies

One of the central questions facing policy-makers is how to allocate limited federal funds among alternative AIDS research strategies. A rational answer requires judgments about both the prospects of scientific progress and the societal value of research outcomes. Using a decision-analytic approach, this paper examines the marginal returns from additional funding of basic biology, epidemiology and mathematical modeling, vaccine development and testing, treatment development and testing, and behavioral and social science. A survey of a recent Institute of Medicine Committee on AIDS was conducted to elicit scientific judgments on the prospects for scientific progress in each of the five areas. The scientists were quite capable of transcending their disciplinary orientation as reflected in the dominant sentiment in favor of more behavioral and social science research. A comparison of the actual FY 1987 AIDS research budget with the budgets recommended by the scientific experts also suggests that basic biological research deserves greater emphasis.This research was supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation in the form of a grant to the Health Science Policy Working Group of the Harvard Division on Health Policy, Research and Education.     

Cheap bribes and the corruption ban: A coordination game among rational legislators

Legislators in modern democracies (a) accept bribes that are small compared to the value of the statutes they pass and (b) allow bans against bribery to be enforced. In our model of bribery, rational legislators accept bribes smaller not only than the benefit the briber receives but than the costs the legislators incur in accepting the bribes. Rather than risk this outcome, the legislators may be willing to suppress bribery altogether. The size of legislatures, the quality of voter information, the nature of party organization, and the structure of committees will all influence the frequency and size of bribes.     

Generalised estimates of diffusion rates for the oxygen blown steel process: An international comparison

The purpose of this study is to build on the results recently obtained by Poznanski (1990). First, the estimation technique is generalised by removing both the symmetric restrictions and the effects of autocorrelated errors that are present in simple logistic functions. Secondly, attention is drawn to the existence and consequences of multicollinearity when non linear techniques are applied to a general exponential. Thirdly, an attempt is made to quantify the importance of market structure and time lags in adoption as determinants of diffusion speed. Finally, a comparison between these generalised results and Poznanski's is made. The study concludes that, by generalising the estimation technique, some significant changes take place. Changes occur in the ordering and magnitude of diffusion speeds, especially amongst the developing and centrally planned economies. Changes also occur in the nature of the diffusion process, and in the importance attributed to market structure and diffusion lags in determining the rate of diffusion. It is also shown that, for some countries, multicollinearity imposes constraints on the type of generality that can be obtained.