Leadership Experiences Within Civil Organizations and Candidacy in Public Elections: Causal Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Approach

Standing as a candidate in public elections has been characterized as the ultimate act of political participation. We test the hypothesis that acquiring office within civil organizations increases the probability of becoming a candidate in public elections. In order to take self-selection problems into account, we provide quasi-experimental evidence using election discontinuities, in which we compare the likelihood of being nominated for public office between closely ranked winners and losers in Swedish student union (SU) elections. Our original data cover 5,000 SU candidates and register data on their candidacies in public elections (1991–2010). The analysis provides support to the hypothesis: Students elected to SU councils were about 34 percent (6 percentage points) more likely to become a candidate in a public election than SU council candidates who were not elected. The causal impact is fairly stable over time. The analysis makes important contributions to two interrelated bodies of literature: First, it provides political recruitment literature with causal evidence that acquiring leadership experiences at arenas outside of representative democratic institutions facilitate entry into election processes. Second, it provides strong evidence to an increasingly contested issue within political participation research by showing that certain organizational activities increase individuals’ political involvement.     

The Reputational Basis of Public Accountability

This article proposes a reputation‐based approach to account for two core puzzles of accountability. The first is the misfit between behavioral predictions of the hegemonic political science framework for talking about accountability, namely, principal–agent, and empirical findings. The second puzzle is the unrivaled popularity of accountability, given evidence that supposedly accountability‐enhancing measures often lead to opposite effects. A “reputation‐informed” theoretical approach to public accountability suggests that accountability is not about reducing informational asymmetries, containing “drift,” or ensuring that agents stay committed to the terms of their mandate. Accountability—in terms of both holding and giving—is about managing and cultivating one's reputation vis‐à‐vis different audiences. It is about being seen as a reputable actor in the eyes of one's audience(s), conveying the impression of competently performing one's (accountability) roles, thereby generating reputational benefits.     

The War with Germany

The War with Germany . By Robert Stevenson (Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 2015), pp.xvi + 303, AU$59.95 (cloth).     

Criminal Careers in Cyberspace: Examining Website Failure within Child Exploitation Networks

Publically accessible, illegal, websites represent an additional challenge for control agencies, but also an opportunity for researchers to monitor, in real time, changes in criminal careers. Using a repeated measures design, we examine evolution in the networks that form around child exploitation (CE) websites, over a period of 60 weeks, and determine which criminal career dimensions predict website failure. Network data were collected using a custom-designed web-crawler. Baseline survival rates were compared to networks surrounding (legal) sexuality and sports websites. Websites containing CE material were no more likely to fail than comparisons. Cox regression analyses suggest that increased volumes of CE code words and images are associated with premature failure. Websites that are more popular have higher odds of survival. We show that traditional criminal career dimensions can be transferred to the context of online CE and constitute some of the key determinants of an interrupted career.     

Islamist radicalism in the provinces of Iran 1906–9: a stage in the development of Islamism

Islamist radicalism emerged in the Iranian Constitutional Revolution of 1906–9. This article examines the early stages of its emergence with particular reference to the provinces of Iran. It looks at the subject thematically and traces the development of an Islamist notion of the state, characterized by Islamic law, and the shaping of new views on nationalism, absolutism and the economy. Increasingly politicized ordinary people also influenced ideological change. The article begins by establishing the background and influence of individuals and groups who played a leading role in developing an Islamist radical political perspective and identity. It then discusses their vision for an alternative state in terms of the authority to govern, its institutions and its laws and considers their methods of organization and propagation to oppose the existing system, and their attempts to change it. Since the article is intended primarily for those interested in the history of Islamism, it ends by evaluating the stage it had reached in 1909.     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.     

Perceptions of Poverty and Wealth in Western and Post-Communist Countries

This paper analyzes the felt legitimacy of poverty and wealth in the United States, West Germany, The Netherlands, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Russia. Several theories on poverty and wealth perception are discussed; of these, dominant ideology theory has been the most influential. This theory can predict the existence not only of a legitimizing ideology in a society, but also of challenging beliefs that incumbents of specific social positions hold. It is argued that poverty and wealth perceptions are more complex, however, involving at least three latent dimensions. Using data from the International Social Justice Project it is demonstrated that, regarding poverty, individuals distinguish between merited, unmerited, and fatalistic types of poverty. Merited poverty is poverty brought about by the individual's own doing or not doing, unmerited poverty is due to forces external to the individual, whereas fatalistic explanations attribute poverty to ascribed properties of the individual. For wealth also there are three causally relevant factors: in addition to merited und unmerited ones, a social capital factor that sees social contacts as a source for determining economic success. Using a structural equation approach and its group comparison option for comparing countries, the different explanations of poverty and wealth are translated into specific measurement models. Testing simultaneously with linear regression models show how preferences for particular explanations are shaped by stratification-related experiences and by the social position of an observer.