Can experts judge elections? Testing the validity of expert judgments for measuring election integrity

Expert surveys have been used to measure a wide variety of phenomena in political science, ranging from party positions, to corruption, to the quality of democracy and elections. However, expert judgments raise important validity concerns, both about the object being measured as well as the experts. It is argued in this article that the context of evaluation is also important to consider when assessing the validity of expert surveys. This is even more important for expert surveys with a comprehensive, worldwide scope, such as democracy or corruption indices. This article tests the validity of expert judgments about election integrity – a topic of increasing concern to both the international community and academics. Evaluating expert judgments of election integrity provides an important contribution to the literature evaluating the validity of expert surveys as instruments of measurement as: (1) the object under study is particularly complex to define and multifaceted; and (2) election integrity is measured in widely varying institutional contexts, ranging from electoral autocracies to liberal democracies. Three potential sources of bias are analysed (the object, the experts and the context), using a unique new dataset on election integrity entitled the ‘Perceptions of Electoral Integrity’ dataset. The data include over 800 experts in 66 parliamentary and presidential elections worldwide. It is found that validity of expert judgments about election integrity is increased if experts are asked to provide factual information (rather than evaluative judgments), and if they are asked to evaluate election day (rather than pre‐election) integrity. It is also found that ideologically polarised elections and elections of lower integrity increase expert disagreement about election integrity. The article concludes with suggestions for researchers using the expert survey data on election integrity on how to check the validity of their data and adjust their analyses accordingly, and outlines some remaining challenges for future data collection using expert surveys.     

Families and households of the poor: The 19th-century Slovenian gostači

The present study examines the position of day laborers, a social category still awaiting comparative study by family historians. In 19th-century Slovenian sources these laborers, called gosta?i, were a very mobile group that did not own property; they could be married or single and could be involved in various occasional jobs, agricultural or industrial, skilled or unskilled. By comparing two communities (one agrarian, the other centered on iron production), the study shows that the living and working arrangements of gosta?i were profoundly affected by the economy and by natural resources. They therefore developed different residential patterns, though in neither case did their families constitute a part of the owner's sub-household in the Laslettian sense. The study concludes that in the 19th century this poor social group should not be treated as a homogenous workforce but as flexible and dynamic.     

Viability of Human Articular Chondrocytes Harvested Postmortem: Changes with Time and Temperature of In Vitro Culture Conditions

Different studies of long‐term chondrocytes viability have shown a gradual reduction as a function of time and ambient temperature. The aim of our in vitro study was to establish chondrocyte postmortem viability curves for 4°C, 11°C, 23°C, 35°C during 63 days after the donors' death. Osteochondral cylinders were procured from the knees of 16 male donors (20–47 years), stored in preservation media that was not changed, and analyzed in 3‐day intervals using a confocal laser scanning microscope. A significant influence of time on viability was found from Day 9 (p = 0.0029) and onwards (p < 0.0001). The lowest overall chondrocyte viability was at 35°C, followed by 4°C (p < 0.0001). The conditions used in this in vitro analysis suggest that similar viabilities may occur while in situ in the decedent. Further studies of chondrocyte viability from individuals with known postmortem intervals may show premise to help evaluate time since death in the late postmortem interval.