Force or Friendship? Explaining Great Power Nonproliferation Policy

Why do great powers take such different approaches to the issue of nuclear proliferation? Why do states oppose nuclear proliferation more vigorously in some cases than in others? In short, what explains great power nonproliferation policy? To answer these questions, this article tests two competing theories of nonproliferation policy. The first, political relationship theory, suggests that states oppose nuclear proliferation to their enemies but are less concerned when friends acquire nuclear weapons. The second, power-projection theory, argues that states oppose the spread of nuclear weapons to states over which they have the ability to project military power because nuclear proliferation in those situations would constrain their military freedom of action. In contrast, states will be less likely to resist, and more likely to promote, nuclear proliferation to states against which they cannot use force. To test these hypotheses, this article uses evidence from great power nonproliferation policy from 1945 to 2000. While both theories find some support, the power-projection theory performs significantly better. The findings of this article have important implications for international relations theory and US nonproliferation policy.     

Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Analysing Local Patterns of Crime Over Time at the Small-Area Level

Objectives

Explore Bayesian spatio-temporal methods to analyse local patterns of crime change over time at the small-area level through an application to property crime data in the Regional Municipality of York, Ontario, Canada.

Methods

This research represents the first application of Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to crime trend analysis at a large map scale. The Bayesian model, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, stabilized risk estimates in small (census dissemination) areas and controlled for spatial autocorrelation (through spatial random effects modeling), deprivation, and scarce data. It estimated (1) (linear) mean trend; (2) area-specific differential trends; and (3) (posterior) probabilities of area-specific differential trends differing from zero (i.e. away from the mean trend) for revealing locations of hot and cold spots.

Results

Property crime exhibited a declining mean trend across the study region from 2006 to 2007. Variation of area-specific trends was statistically significant, which was apparent from the map of (95 % credible interval) differential trends. Hot spots in the north and south west, and cold spots in the middle and east of the region were identified.

Conclusions

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis contributes to a detailed understanding of small-area crime trends and risks. It estimates crime trend for each area as well as an overall mean trend. The new approach of identifying hot/cold spots through analysing and mapping probabilities of area-specific crime trends differing from the mean trend highlights specific locations where crime situation is deteriorating or improving over time. Future research should analyse trends over three or more periods (allowing for non-linear time trends) and associated (changing) local risk factors.     

The Effect of Light Exposure on the Degradation of Latent Fingerprints on Brass Surfaces: The Use of Silver Electroless Deposition as a Visualization Technique

We have studied the degradation of sebaceous fingerprints on brass surfaces using silver electroless deposition (SED) as a visualization technique. We have stored fingerprints on brass squares either (i) in a locked dark cupboard or (ii) in glass‐filtered natural daylight for periods of 3 h, 24 h, 1 week, 3 weeks, and 6 weeks. We find that fingerprints on brass surfaces degrade much more rapidly when kept in the light than they do under dark conditions with a much higher proportion of high‐quality prints found after 3 or 6 weeks of aging when stored in the dark. This process is more marked than for similar fingerprints on black PVC surfaces. Identifiable prints can be achieved on brass surfaces using both SED and cyanoacrylate fuming (CFM). SED is quick and straightforward to perform. CFM is more time‐consuming but is versatile and can be applied to a wider range of metal surfaces than SED, for example brass surfaces which have been coated by a lacquer.     

Assessing Police Attitudes Toward Drugs and Drug Enforcement

The American War on Drugs has been a long and protracted battle. On the front lines are local, state and federal drug enforcement officers who are tasked with pursuing drug users and dealers. Empirically, officers’ attitudes about the laws they uphold have been shown to impact how aggressively they enforce those laws and the discretion they employ. Although there is a well established body of literature which documents the importance of discretionary dynamics in many areas of law enforcement, we know almost nothing about narcotics officers’ attitudes toward drugs and drug enforcement. Hence, we are unaware of extremely important variables that almost certainly impact and influence front line drug officers. This study fills that gap by examining the survey responses of over 1,000 drug interdiction officers at all levels of law enforcement, measuring their attitudes toward various drugs and the relative harm they incur, along with existing and proposed policies and strategies. The results are discussed in terms of their enforcement and policy implications.     

Assessing sheriff’s office emergency and disaster website communications

Sheriff’s offices are an integral component of the public health emergency preparedness and response system in the USA. During a public health emergency or disaster, sheriff’s offices need to communicate with people affected by the event. Sheriff’s office websites are logical sources for information about disaster preparedness and response efforts. No prior research evaluates emergency preparedness and response resources available through sheriff’s office websites. The current research is a national study of sheriff’s office websites to assess the availability of information relating to emergency preparedness and response. A content analysis of 2590 sheriff’s office website homepages was conducted to determine the presence or absence of nine communications elements important to people seeking information during an emergency or disaster. We found that 71.9% of sheriff’s office website homepages include links to agency services and programs, but only 6.5% provide links to emergency preparedness information. The findings of the study are useful to assess emergency preparedness and the amount of response information available, as well as to identify opportunities to improve sheriff’s office website homepages.     

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in DSM-5: New Criteria,New Measures,and Implications for Assessment

The diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were substantially revised for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders—5th edition (DSM-5). This in turn necessitated revision of DSM-correspondent assessment measures of PTSD. We describe the various changes to the PTSD diagnostic criteria and the corresponding changes to National Center for PTSD measures. We also discuss the implications of the new criteria for assessment of trauma exposure and PTSD. Although the DSM-5 version of PTSD departs significantly in some respects from previous versions, we conclude that there is fundamental continuity with the original DSM-III conceptualization of PTSD as a chronic, debilitating mental disorder that develops in response to catastrophic life events.