Crisis of political parties and representative democracies: rethinking parties in associational,experimentalist governance

The contrast between the normative functions of political parties in representative democracies and their empirical working is stark and rapidly increasing. This article starts from a sober, realist account of the empirical state of affairs and from structural problems of democracy and participations – in terms of limits of time, information, qualification and relevant expertise – that have to be acknowledged by any realist–utopian proposal of alternatives beyond the exclusive alternative of ‘thin, realist democracy’ or emphatic ‘strong, participatory, direct, or mass democracy’. We can do better. My search for institutional alternatives looks not for the replacement of political parties but for their relief. Many, not all, of their normative tasks can be shared with other functional networks, associations and organizations. In exploring such a new division of political labour I draw on older debates and designs of associative democracy and on recent discussions to democratize expertise and to expertise democracy in order to address urgent societal problems of high-risk decisions under conditions of extreme complexity, contingency, unpredictability and uncertainty and deep contestedness of our knowledge, problems that turn out to be unmanagable by party politics and representative democracy.     

Perceptions of Immigrant Threat,American Identity,and Vote Choice in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Among the central tenets of social identity theory are the arguments that individuals’ attitudes and behavior are shaped by (1) perceptions of threat by out-groups toward individuals’ in-group(s) and (2) the strength of individuals’ identification with the in-group perceived to be under threat. In this paper we explore how American identity and Americans’ perceptions of immigrant threat work together to shape their vote choices in the 2016 presidential election. With the presidential campaign of Donald Trump characterized by strong rhetoric that emphasized immigrant threat and American identity themes, we suggest that the effects of immigrant threat perceptions are amplified by individuals’ American identity, with those who have a strong American identity more likely to translate immigrant threat perceptions into support for Trump than those with weaker levels of American identity. Moreover, we consider whether the effects of American identity on vote choice are activated and moderated by individuals’ perceptions of immigrant threat. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Study, we find that the effects of immigrant threat perceptions and American identity on vote choice are magnified by each other: the effects of immigrant threat perceptions are enhanced among individuals with a strong American identity, and the effects of American identity are activated and magnified by perceptions of immigrant threat.

     

Error and its Meaning in Forensic Science

The discussion of “error” has gained momentum in forensic science in the wake of the Daubert guidelines and has intensified with the National Academy of Sciences' Report. Error has many different meanings, and too often, forensic practitioners themselves as well as the courts misunderstand scientific error and statistical error rates, often confusing them with practitioner error (or mistakes). Here, we present an overview of these concepts as they pertain to forensic science applications, discussing the difference between practitioner error (including mistakes), instrument error, statistical error, and method error. We urge forensic practitioners to ensure that potential sources of error and method limitations are understood and clearly communicated and advocate that the legal community be informed regarding the differences between interobserver errors, uncertainty, variation, and mistakes.     

Harsh State Repression as a Cause of Suicide Bombing: The Case of the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict

Although students of social movements have established that state repression strongly affects protesters’ choice of tactics, this finding has been ignored by most analysts of suicide bombing. Based on data collected from various sources, including 88 interviews the author conducted in 2006 with senior leaders of six Palestinian political organizations and close relatives and friends of Palestinian suicide bombers, this article argues that harsh state repression is a major cause of suicide bombing. It shows that understanding the effect of state repression is crucial to clarifying many of the unsolved puzzles concerning the rationales of organizations that employ suicide bombing, the motivations of individual suicide bombers, and the reasons why this tactic has become popular in some societies. The article concludes that there are three types of organizational rationales underlying the use of suicide bombing. Suicide bombing may be an extreme reaction to extreme state repression, a combined reactive and strategic action, or a purely strategic action. Different contexts and organizations typify these organizational rationales.     

Colin Davidson's British Indian Intelligence Operations in Japan 1915–23 and the Demise of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance

Colin Davidson was the British consular official in Japan during and after World War I delegated to run intelligence operations in the country on behalf of the British Indian security authorities. Davidson's original target, Indian revolutionaries based in Japan, soon expanded to include their clandestine links to powerful Japanese political patrons, violating the spirit of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902–23). Davidson's expertise on Japan, combined with intelligence on Japanese ultranationalist support of Indian independence, proved crucial for confirming suspicions about secret Japanese intent against the British Empire, contributing to the decision not to renew the Alliance.     

Reassessing pre-war Japanese espionage: The Rutland naval spy case and the Japanese intelligence threat before Pearl Harbor

Soon after the termination of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1921, Squadron Leader Frederick Joseph Rutland covertly offered the Japanese navy technical help to develop aircraft carriers. In doing so Rutland played a significant role in the evolution of Japan's offensive capability that made the attack on Pearl Harbor possible. Of as lasting importance was the impact the case had in shaping the perception of ‘the Japanese threat’. British security and intelligence agencies' knowledge of Japanese naval intelligence actions in accepting this ‘offer of service’ and running Rutland as a clandestine agent was not balanced by any understanding of the fragmented nature of the Japanese leadership and intelligence bureaucracy. The case in the 1920s provided the Security Service and SIS with the apparent evidence to justify reassessing Japan from benign if opportunistic former ally to hostile power, apparently proving that Japan's intelligence actions reflected sustained hostile intent throughout the inter-War period.     

What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note

The December 2011 legislative election was among the most fraudulent national elections in Russia since the communist period. The fraud, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Precinct-level election returns from the 83 regions of the Russian Federation suggest that the level of fraud ranged from minimal or small in some regions to extreme in some others, with moderate to high fraud levels in many regions in between. We argue that in an electoral authoritarian context like Russia, regional variation in fraud can be explained by differences in (a) the perceived need by regional authorities to signal loyalty to the center by “delivering” desired election results; (b) the capacity of regional authorities to organize fraud; and (c) the vulnerability of citizens to political pressure and manipulation. We test the effect of signaling, capacity, and vulnerability on electoral fraud in the 2011 legislative elections with data on the 83 regions of the Russian Federation. We find evidence for all three mechanisms, finding that the tenure of governors in office, United Russia's dominance in regional legislatures, and the ethnic composition of regions are most important for explaining regional variation in electoral fraud.     

Financial Access and Exclusion in Kenya and Uganda

Policy emphasis has recently shifted to ‘Finance for All’ given evidence that financial sector development contributes to growth but effects on poverty do not arise from pro-poor provision. We argue that, given this policy goal, analyses of barriers to access must be country specific and go beyond the emphasis on transactions costs to incorporate the effects of social institutions since these contribute to discrimination. This paper uses data from Financial Access Surveys carried out in 2006 in Kenya and Uganda to investigate the socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors influencing access to and exclusion from formal, semi-formal and informal financial services.     

Development of a Mobile Toolmark Characterization/Comparison System

Since the development of the striagraph, various attempts have been made to enhance forensic investigation through the use of measuring and imaging equipment. This study describes the development of a prototype system employing an easy‐to‐use software interface designed to provide forensic examiners with the ability to measure topography of a toolmarked surface and then conduct various comparisons using a statistical algorithm. Acquisition of the data is carried out using a portable 3D optical profilometer, and comparison of the resulting data files is made using software named “MANTIS” (Mark and Tool Inspection Suite). The system has been tested on laboratory‐produced markings that include fully striated marks (e.g., screwdriver markings), quasistriated markings produced by shear‐cut pliers, impression marks left by chisels, rifling marks on bullets, and cut marks produced by knives. Using the system, an examiner has the potential to (i) visually compare two toolmarked surfaces in a manner similar to a comparison microscope and (ii) use the quantitative information embedded within the acquired data to obtain an objective statistical comparison of the data files. This study shows that, based on the results from laboratory samples, the system has great potential for aiding examiners in conducting comparisons of toolmarks.