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111.
Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome. 相似文献
112.
113.
Christopher Gibson Michael Woolcock 《Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID)》2008,43(2):151-180
The salience of the concept of “empowerment” has been deductively claimed more often than carefully defined or inductively
assessed by development scholars and practitioners alike. We use evidence from a mixed methods examination of the Kecamatan
(subdistrict) Development Project (KDP) in rural Indonesia, which we define here as development interventions that build marginalized
groups’ capacity to engage local-level governing elites using routines of deliberative contestation. “Deliberative contestation”
refers to marginalized groups’ practice of exercising associational autonomy in public forums using fairness-based arguments
that challenge governing elites’ monopoly over public resource allocation decisions. Deliberative development interventions
such as KDP possess a comparative advantage in building the capacity to engage because they actively provide open decision-making
spaces, resources for argumentation (such as facilitators), and incentives to participate. They also promote peaceful resolutions
to the conflicts they inevitably spark. In the KDP conflicts we analyze, marginalized groups used deliberative contestation
to moderately but consistently shift local-level power relations in contexts with both low and high preexisting capacities
for managing conflict. By contrast, marginalized groups in non-KDP development conflicts from comparable villages used “mobilizational
contestation” to generate comparatively erratic shifts in power relations, shifts that depended greatly on the preexisting
capacity for managing conflict.
Christopher Gibson is a Ph.D. student in sociology at Brown University. His research interests include comparative political economy, participatory democracy, contemporary sociological theory, qualitative methodology, and long-run causes of development and inequality in large developing countries. He is currently exploring the relationship between democratic participation and redistribution in Kerala, India. Michael Woolcock is professor of social science and development policy, and research director of the Brooks World Poverty Institute, at the University of Manchester. He is currently on external service leave from the World Bank’s Development Research Group. 相似文献
Michael Woolcock (Corresponding author)Email: |
Christopher Gibson is a Ph.D. student in sociology at Brown University. His research interests include comparative political economy, participatory democracy, contemporary sociological theory, qualitative methodology, and long-run causes of development and inequality in large developing countries. He is currently exploring the relationship between democratic participation and redistribution in Kerala, India. Michael Woolcock is professor of social science and development policy, and research director of the Brooks World Poverty Institute, at the University of Manchester. He is currently on external service leave from the World Bank’s Development Research Group. 相似文献
114.
Bloomberg MR 《Newsweek》2008,152(13):48, 50
115.
A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bell-curved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data. 相似文献
116.
117.
While there is a growing academic literature about mail-in ballots, there has been no serious academic research to date on overseas voters, even though the counting of overseas military ballots figured into the 2000 presidential election controversy. The participation of nearly 4 million overseas voters, both civilian and military, is governed by the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act. The authors examine the reported perceptions of military and nonmilitary voters covered by this legislation using two surveys funded by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, focusing on their perceptions of electronic means of transmitting voting materials. The authors find that civilian overseas citizens have a harder time registering and voting than military overseas citizens; that the key factor is the timely transmission of voting materials; and that, despite privacy concerns, electronic transmission of voting materials is viewed favorably. 相似文献
118.
Stanley L. Winer Michael W. Tofias Bernard Grofman John H. Aldrich 《Public Choice》2008,135(3-4):415-448
We investigate the role of Congress in the growth of federal public expenditure since 1930, building on the work of Kau and Rubin (Public Choice, 113:389–402, 2002). The model incorporates majority party strength and the extent of party control of Congress in addition to the median ideological position of elected representatives. We first provide estimates of the relative importance of the state of Congress and of trending supply and demand-side economic factors in the evolution of federal spending. The resulting models are then used to simulate the consequences of the radical and historically unprecedented shift to the right of Congress in 1994/95. 相似文献
119.
The authors comment on an earlier aritice in Society by Eugene Goodheart and offer a novel hypothesis about the origins of
religion.
相似文献
Lionel Tiger (Corresponding author)Email: |
120.
Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875–1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geopolitical database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it. 相似文献