Game tree analysis of international crises

Conflicts among nations can often be understood as games in which players (nations) possessing strategies (the sets of actions they may take) face alternative consequences (loss or gain of territory or prestige) determined by their choices of action. Amenable to this type of analysis is the recent Falkland Islands crisis involving Argentina and Great Britain. The events in this case provide an illustration of the way “three-stage, two-person sequential game tree models” can explain the outcome of a crisis situation, whether the parties involved possess perfect information regarding the likely actions of their opponents or are subject to misperceptions about them. When misperceptions occur, the effects can be severely detrimental to both players. Under certain conditions a single misperception by a player of an opponent's preferences can lead to conflict even though both players would have preferred another outcome, one that would in fact have resulted if the error in perception had not occurred. Thus, the outcome of such a “game” is highly sensitive not only to the players' actual preferences but to mutual perceptions of those preferences.     

Social learning and adolescent deviance abstention: Toward understanding the reasons for initiating,quitting, and avoiding drugs

Tests of theories that attempt to explain why individuals currently use drugs are widespread; however, the theoretical examinations of abstention from drugs and the cessation of their use are rare. For its part, social learning theory has been supported consistently in its delineation of the process by which substance use is learned. We propose that cessation and abstention are also learned behavior. Using logistic regression analysis, we examine the ability of social learning variables to distinguish among abstainers, current users, and former users of illicit drugs within a sample of 1688 middle- and high-school students in two widely separated nonurban communities. Results indicate that social learning variables clearly distinguish abstainers from current users but are less able to distinguish former users and current users or former users from abstainers. The theoretical, research, and policy implications of these findings are examined in detail.     

Role of law enforcement training commissions in the United States

The results of a survey of thirty-nine state law enforcement training commissions are presented. Information on historical development of the commissions, scope of responsibility, organizational structure, and the current status of education and training activity is included.     

Implementing decentralization programmes in Asia: A comparative analysis

Decentralization in development planning and administration is being attempted in novel ways as governments seek to generate economic growth and at the same time achieve greater social equity. Little has been done to assess comparatively the nature and effectiveness of these experiments. This article is based on a selection of eight case studies, each set in a different Asian country, where an innovative approach to decentralization has been adopted by the central government in order to achieve development aims. The stimulus to innovate is considered, the different forms of decentralization compared and a tentative comparative evaluation is made of the effectiveness of decentralizing development planning and implementation. What the analysis shows is that despite diversity in the objectives and differences in the forms decentralized programmes took there were common problems centring on administrative capability. This, the author argues, has important implications for governments and international agencies.