Bad but Stable

Russia's fiscal system was destabilized in 2015 because of the fall in national oil revenues. The budget crisis resulted in a sustained fall in personal income, which in turn led to a fall in consumption. This in turn resulted in a decline in trade and investment. These trends were present in the majority of Russia's regions. Russia's industrial slump, on the other hand, was relatively small and did not last long, in large part due to continued investment and growth in the defense industry. The sustained industrial production, combined with the buffer of a substantial pool of foreign migrant labor, allowed for stable employment figures. Overall, the Russian economy was better able to adapt to the deterioration in conditions than most expected.     

Upper‐Bounding the Incidence Rate of Associations Between Camouflage Uniforms and Surveillance Images*

Abstract: Camouflage garments can be associated with surveillance images of a crime scene even in the absence of unique wear marks or very high‐quality images. However, the probability of an accidental association, or incidence rate, is significant. The present work describes and validates a method for estimating the incidence rate based on a statistical model of the garment manufacturing process. The model was developed primarily for use with the current U.S. Army Combat Uniform (ACU), but can be applied to any camouflage garment. Eight garment manufacturers were studied, and all sources of variation in the manufacturing process were characterized. The marking and spreading procedures were found to be dominant and consistent sources of variation. However, some sources of variation, in particular those because of human operators, were not consistent enough to accurately characterize. Sources of variation that could not be well‐characterized were ignored in the statistical model, yielding a worst‐case estimate that is an upper‐bound to the true incidence rate. The model was evaluated for a variety of cases. Depending on the quality of the surveillance image, the manufacturing parameters, and the local population, incidence rates range from about 3% to negligibly small. The model was validated by returning to one manufacturer, and sampling a large number of completed garments and estimating empirical match probabilities. The empirical probabilities validated the estimates of the worst‐case incidence rate and also demonstrated that typical incidence rates are significantly lower.     

The Cultural Aspects of Advertising Communications in Modern China

Advertising studies allow us not only to differentiate successful from unsuccessful marketing activities, but establish the fact as well that advertising reveals specific cultural norms that somehow differ depending on global regions. Advertising studies feature a clearly pronounced interdisciplinary nature and allow us to better understand what cultural basis specific advertising texts are made on. An advertising message is oriented on both rational and emotional-affective processes among the people perceiving the message. Modern Chinese consumers live in a complex social and cultural space. The ideology of the People’s Republic of China combines traditional philosophy, socialist ideas, and technological pragmatism. In modern China, advertising costs are skyrocketing (the year-to-year increase is about 100%). Chinese visual advertising images are based on a complex mixture of global and traditional cultural values and embody different aspects of “the Great Chinese Dream.” A visual analysis of Chinese advertisements allows us to see what traditional and global values are embodied by advertisers in advertising texts in order to render such advertising messages more effectively. Generally encountered are female images, nature-related images, and images pertaining to the ancient past of China. At the same time, ancient Chinese traditions are subject to globalization. Chinese traditional female images are created in the context of trends of mass culture. Nevertheless, the keynote remains within China’s traditional values. All the while, it features no forced separation from the global culture. It is more likely that China harmoniously includes the components considered acceptable within its own worldview.