Risk calculation and precautionary uncertainty: two configurations within crime assessment

This paper explores two configurations of thinking about crime amongst law enforcement agencies and private sector security managers: ‘risk calculation’ (concerned with everyday, calculable probabilities and impacts and their management) and ‘precautionary uncertainty’ (concerned with events that might be incapacitating, yet are not calculable by probability assessments). The paper explores their respective constituent concepts and fields of application in crime assessment, drawing upon qualitative research-in-progress in Belgium. Risk calculation, as applied to crime, starts with past data on routines that link perpetrators with targets that lack capable guardians. Precautionary uncertainty focuses on potential impacts that are highly disabling and potentially wide-spreading (contagion, knock-on effects), asking how such impacts can be contained and recovered from. Risk and uncertainty are shown to be related to ‘rational-instrumental’ and ‘deliberative-constitutive’ approaches as developed by Fisher’s work in the field of law, which offers a meta-narrative in relation to which they can be positioned. Finally, the paper asks if these two crime assessment methods should be seen as distinct or as merging. On the basis of criteria of conceptual sharpness, openness to public debate and justiciability, the authors champion the maintenance of a clear distinction between risk and uncertainty.     

Conservative Perspectives on American Federalism: Introduction

Conservatives were regularly criticized by liberals and othersfor their approach to federalism throughout the twentieth century.This trend began during the Progressive era, when the justicesof the "Lochner Court" were vilified for using national judicialpower to strike down local regulations. Several decades later,conservative opposition to New Deal programs was seen as insensitiveand elitist. Arguments for constitutional limitations on executivepower in the 1930s were attributed to the greed of businessmenand corporations. During the 1950s and 1960s, the conservativedefense of states' rights was explained by other unpleasantmotivations. Opposition to national civil rights laws was, formany, analogous to fondness for Jim Crow and other forms ofracial subjugation. Since the 1980s, conservative members ofthe Rehnquist Court have been denounced from various quartersfor their federalist perspectives. According to the Court'scritics, specious arguments about state sovereignty have beenused to rescind national rights and benefits.     

Crisis and contract breach: The domestic and international determinants of expropriation

The Review of International Organizations - In this paper we address how external factors shape government decisions to break or uphold contracts, specifically focusing on how economic shocks and...     

Development and validation of videotaped scenarios: a method for targeting specific participant groups

Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios.     

How Does Regulation Affect the Risk Taking of Banks? A U.S. and Canadian Perspective

This historical study utilizes annual insured bank data from 1936 through 1989 to empirically evaluate the impact of bank regulation on bank risk taking in a cross-country comparison of the United States and Canada. Risk is hypothesized to be determined, in part, by the regulatory environment in which a bank operates. The findings of this analysis contributes to the contemporary deregulation policy debate, since both branch banking restrictions and deposit insurance variables are found to be detrimental to bank stability. More specifically, these results support the 1994 Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act, which removed legislative barriers to interstate branching. These results also confirm expectations that deposit insurance increases risk taking and supports the 1991 mandate by regulators that risk-based deposit insurance be created. Further, these findings support the 1988 Basel Accord to standardize bank capital requirements internationally and to link these standards to bank risk taking.     

Ethics and Government: Preliminary Considerations

This symposium reproduces several of the papers presented during the international conference sponsored by the Queensland University of Technology Centre for the Study of Ethics, at Parliament House, Brisbane, 11-13 February, 1999. The theme of the conference was 'Government and Business: Integrity and Accountability'. The papers have been revised following discussions within a research colloquium associated with the conference. They were initially presented within a strand entitled 'Competition, Marketisation, Public Services and Public Ethics' which explored ethical issues for contemporary government within different national contexts (New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Malaysia and Australia) around the impact of economic policies that have reframed the role of government primarily as a servant of the international market.     

Corruption is bad for growth (even in the United States)

We estimate the impact of corruption on growth of output per worker in U.S. states. We improve on existing studies of the cost of corruption by using a better specified empirical model, focusing on a study population that is less likely to be affected by parameter heterogeneity, and controlling for endogeneity using political variables to instrument for corruption. We find that corruption plays a significant and causal role in lowering growth and investment across the states.