“I Had a Confidence Epiphany!”: Obstacles to Combating Post-Identification Confidence Inflation

Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled "confidence inflation." Wells et al. (1998) Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603-647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed about the eyewitness' confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.     

Human Rights in the Council of Europe and the EU: Towards ‘Individual’, ‘Constitutional’ or ‘Institutional’ Justice?

Abstract: The European Convention on Human Rights, promulgated by the Council of Europe in 1950, is widely regarded as the world's most successful experiment in the trans‐national judicial protection of human rights. The EU's much more recent judicial and political interest in human rights has also been widely welcomed. Yet, while the crisis currently afflicting the Convention system has not gone unnoticed, the same cannot equally be said of the difficulties presented by the increasing interpenetration of the two systems. Amongst the few who have shown some interest in these problems, the dominant view is that good will and common sense will provide adequate solutions. We disagree. Instead, we detect a gathering crisis which, unless properly analysed and effectively tackled, will only deepen as the EU's interest in human rights develops further. In our view, the problem is essentially conceptual and that, ultimately, it boils down to a much‐neglected question, simple to state but not so easy to answer: is the trans‐national protection of human rights in Europe a matter of ‘individual’, ‘constitutional’ or ‘institutional’ justice?     

Reform of Licensing for Marine Works: Improvement and Clarification Under the Marine and Coastal Access Bill 2008

Important legislative change is underway in the marine environment. In relation to the licensing of activities which are carried out in this zone the need for change is significant for many interested sectors such as: energy generation; the extractive industries; port and harbour developments; fisheries; and bodies involved with the conservation of both natural and archaeological/cultural resources. This article considers the main aspects of the existing legislative situation in relation to marine licensing and then goes on to describe and evaluate the proposed new system to be substituted through the Marine and Coastal Access Bill (the Bill). In order to provide some basis for evaluation, the protection of underwater cultural heritage (UCH) provides a backdrop against which to assess the developments. The means by which interventions in the marine environment are currently regulated are complex, in some situations overlapping, and in others questionable as to the overall coherence of their regulatory effects. Parties which might be considered to be ‘interested’ are often excluded from formal deliberations, guidance is patchy, although proliferating, and voluntary agreements (BMAPA 2003; COWRIE 2007) on best practice within sectors have been developed in the absence of official provision—while these are undoubtedly useful, they lack the rigour of systematic legislative underpinning, which it is hoped that the Bill will address.     

Illicit markets,weak states and violence: Iraq and Mexico

This article focuses on drug trafficking violence in Mexico and on those elements of the violence in Iraq which are related to competition for the control over smuggling of oil and other largely licit commodities. It suggests that the broader context is critical, while the nature of the commodity—and in particular whether it is prohibited or simply a legal commodity that is stolen and diverted to both domestic and international black markets—is not the major determinant of the level of violence. Both Mexico and Iraq suffer from transitional violence (arrangements for criminal activity which were dominated by the state have broken down), are characterized by anomie and a culture of lawlessness, have a surfeit of specialists in violence along with the ready availability of weapons, and are afflicted by high levels of corruption. In Mexico the violence has centered around the control of drug routes and strategic warehouses on the Mexico–United States border as well as control of local retail markets; in the southern province of Basra in Iraq the violence has centered on control of oil smuggling. While some of the violence has targeted state authorities it also reflects the fragmentation of criminal organizations. The author would like to thank Peter Andreas and Joel Wallman for their excellent substantive and editorial comments and suggestions. Phil Williams is Professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, and author of a forthcoming monograph on Organized Crime in Iraq to be published by the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.

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Ambiguous Measures of Unknown Constructs: The MMPI-2 Fake Bad Scale (aka Symptom Validity Scale, FBS, FBS-r)

The Fake Bad Scale (FBS; Symptom Validity Scale) has fundamental psychometric flaws, interpretive problems, and potentially adverse societal consequences that are not appreciated by Ben-Porath et al. (Psychological Injury and Law 2(1), 62–85, 2009a, b). The FBS was constructed without due consideration to scientifically based guidelines for scale development (Clark and Watson, Psychological Assessment 7, 309–319, 1995; Jackson, Psychological Review 78, 229–248, 1971; Nunnally 1978; Holden and Troister, Canadian Psychology 50, 120–130, 2009). After almost two decades in existence, its face, content, and construct validity have not been established in the empirical literature. Oft-cited discriminant studies that appear to support the FBS are premature because of the scale’s unestablished psychometric foundation. In addition, these studies have significant methodological weaknesses that preclude definitive conclusions about what the scale actually measures. We review these weaknesses and recent legal cases that challenge the scale. We recommend that the FBS’s validity and fairness be addressed in an independent scientific review by the Buros Mental Measurement Test Evaluation System, a non-profit center specializing in the evaluation of commercially available tests.     

Cyberfraud and the implications for effective risk-based responses: themes from UK research

The nature of the risk or threat posed by ‘cyberfraud’ - fraud with a cyber dimension – is examined empirically based on data reported by the public and business to Action Fraud. These are used to examine the implications for a more effective risk-based response, both by category of fraud and also responding to cyberfraud generally, not just in the UK. A key characteristics of cyberfraud is that it can be globalised, unless there are major national differences in attractiveness of targets or in the organisation of control. This does not mean that all cyberfraud is international, however: not only do some involve face to face interactions at some stage of the crime cycle, but in online auction selling frauds, it appears to be common for the perpetrators and victims to reside in the same country. After reviewing patterns and costs of victimisation and their implications for control, the paper concludes that any law enforcement response must begin by being strategic: which other public and private sector bodies should be involved to do what; what should be the specific roles and responsibilities of the police and where ‘problem ownership’ should lie; what are we willing to pay for (in money and effort) for greater cybersecurity and how to reduce ‘market failure’ in its supply; and, how that security is going to be organised for and/or by the huge numbers of businesses and people that are (potentially) affected.     

Reinventing the Proverbs of Government

The field of public administration has a long history of popular reform movements. Many of these reforms have failed to deliver the improvements promised. The current "reinventing government" reforms, which follow largely from the writings of David Osborne and his coauthors, claim to establish a new governmental paradigm based on liberating employees and citizens to do their best and using new management methods to get the most out of what government does. However, a careful analysis of Osborne's chief works, Reinventing Government and Banishing Bureaucracy, reveals that their advice cannot be applied because it is inconsistent. No new paradigm is established, and, more importantly, because of the ahistorical nature of these texts, Osborne proposes discredited ideas for administrative reform and misleads the reader concerning the significance of his observations.