Adolescent personality antecedents of completed family size: A longitudinal study

Comprehensive personality assessments, made independently for early and late adolescence, were employed to predict the subsequent family sizes of 52 women and 54 men with single continuous marriages throughout their parenting careers. (These participants have been studied longitudinally over a 40-year span in either the Oakland Growth Study or the Berkeley Guidance Study.) Final family size relates negligibly to earlier personality for men, but is substantially predictable highly significantpositive correlations demonstrated withintellectual competence of girls at both adolescent age levels and independently within the two cohorts studied. Alternative hypotheses to account for this unexpected result are presented, and further research is proposed to determine whether the relationship is cohort-specific (to women born in the 1920s) or, instead, likely to hold for current and future generations of women.This research was supported by Grant HD 09191-01 from the U.S. Public Health Service.The data employed are drawn from the longitudinal archives of the Oakland Growth Study and the Berkeley Guidance Study, both at the Institute of Human Development, University of California, Berkeley.Main research interest is the longitudinal study of personality development.     

Factors affecting property tax reliance: Additional evidence

This paper contributes to the understanding of the variation in property tax reliance. Factors thought to underlie the relative use of property taxes in financing local public services are examined. Because of the importance of external debt and tax limits in determining both tax policies and local government organization, particular attention is paid to local government structure and the impact on tax composition. An index from the industrial organization literature is used to study the effects of local government fragmentation. The empirical results are consistent with expectations and indicate that external tax limits may increase property tax reliance by providing incentives to change the structure of local government.     

Older people’s conceptualisation of poverty and their experiences of government programmes in Uganda

This article explores older people’s understandings of poverty and analyses their experience of government policies for fighting poverty. It employed qualitative methods, including focus group discussions and key informant interviews. A total of 120 older people in two districts in Uganda participated in the study. Based on thematic analysis and observation of non-verbal communication, older people’s perspectives on poverty included a wide range of deprivations in their household. Findings reveal that there is a lack of legislation support and effective information for old people to demand accountability or influence policy strategies to address poverty. Despite the difficult living conditions of older people in poverty, the majority live independent lives, are self-reliant and use a variety of strategies to address poverty. Therefore, there is a need for scrutiny to ensure that poverty alleviation support reaches those who need it most.     

Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections

It has long been recognized that Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) suffers from a defect known as nonmonotonicity, wherein increasing support for a candidate among a subset of voters may adversely affect that candidate’s election outcome. The expected frequency of this type of behavior, however, remains an open and important question, and limited access to detailed election data makes it difficult to resolve empirically. In this paper, we develop a spatial model of voting behavior to approach the question theoretically. We conclude that monotonicity failures in three-candidate IRV elections may be much more prevalent than widely presumed (results suggest a lower bound estimate of 15 % for competitive elections). In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV.     

Conversations in Istanbul: An interview with Bulent Ecevit

Turkey, a strategically located but often unappreciated ally of the West, receives inadequate attention in Western media. It has served as a crucial element of Western defense during the cold war and is a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. The following interview with former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit examines the Turkish perspective on important Turkish foreign and domestic issues, specifically focusing on: Arab‐Israeli conflict, Turkish‐Greek dispute over Cyprus, Turkish relations with the Arabs, Turkish relations with the United States and West European countries, Arab relations with the West, and internal Turkish political affairs.     

Towards a Free Market in Religion

While most nationalised enterprises have been privatised and made subject to the market, the Church of England, with considerable but not complete autonomy, remains ultimately a state controlled and governed organisation. The growth of secularism and religious diversity has demonstrated that the Church has failed in its mission to be the Church of all the people of England. Its share of the marriage market has shrunk to one in four and most weddings are now secular. It retains a monopoly of UK state religious ceremonial but in attempting to adjust to contemporary forms of religiosity it has become, in contradiction of its founding 16th century articles, the leader of official state interfaith activities and the arbiter and broker for the participation of a restricted range of other religious denominations in state activities. Releasing the Church from state control and creating a more open market for religion and belief will create a level playing field for all denominations and a better correspondence between citizen attitudes and public actions.