REASSESSING NONLINEARITY IN THE URBAN DISADVANTAGE/VIOLENT CRIME RELATIONSHIP: AN EXAMPLE OF METHODOLOGICAL BIAS FROM LOG TRANSFORMATION*

Sociologists and criminologists have become increasingly concerned with nonlinear relationships and interaction effects. For example, some recent studies suggest that the positive relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and violent crime is nonlinear with an accelerating slope, whereas other research indicates a nonlinear decelerating slope. The present paper considers the possibility that this inconsistency in findings is partially caused by lack of attention to an important methodological concern. Specifically, we argue that researchers have not been sensitive to the ways in which logarithmic transformation of the dependent variable can bias tests for nonlinearity and statistical interaction. We illustrate this point using demographic and violent crime data for urban neighborhoods, and we propose an alternative procedure to log transformation that involves the use of weighted least‐squares regression, heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors, and diagnostics for influential observations.     

“It's the Central Government's Fault”: Elected Regional Officials' Use of Blame‐Shifting Rhetoric

This article investigates regional officials' use of blame‐shifting rhetoric in times of heated public criticism of unpopular regional policy decisions. Based on a content coding of nearly 500 political accounts from elected regional officials it is shown that “it's the central government's fault” is the most frequently used excuse when regional officials publicly defend unpopular decisions to cut public health care. The article finds that this excuse is used more by regional leaders (mayors and chairmen of regional boards) than by other elected officials and that partisan competition affects how often this excuse is used.     

'Sharing the Proceeds of Growth': Conservative Economic Policy under David Cameron

Upon becoming Conservative leader, David Cameron, and his Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, initially sought to compete with Labour by pledging increased expenditure on education and the NHS, and thereby insisting that tax cuts would have to wait. Rather than cutting taxation overall, the emphasis was on restructuring and simplifying Britain's tax system, and shifting the burden towards the better off, mainly thorough promoting environmental taxes. However, the economic collapse at the end of 2008 has prompted the Conservatives to modify this new economic stance, by insisting that they will no longer match Labour's planned increases in public expenditure, but, instead, will increase it at a lower rate. This is intended to reduce the need to increase government borrowing during the recession, and thereby ensure that when the economy recovers, the proceeds of economic growth can be shared between higher public expenditure and lower taxation, rather than being spent on repaying government debt for many years ahead.     

Who sets the agenda and who responds to it in the Danish parliament? A new model of issue competition and agenda‐setting

Inspired by the agenda‐setting literature, this article outlines a model of issue competition focusing on the interaction between government and opposition parties through the party‐system agenda. Unlike previous studies of issue competition, the model makes it possible to answer questions such as why some parties have greater success than others in forcing other parties to address unpleasant issues. One of the central implications of the model is that opposition parties are freer to focus continually on issues that are advantageous to themselves, whereas government parties more often are forced to respond to issues brought up on the party‐system agenda. Using data on issue competition in Denmark covering 25 years and 23 issue categories, the issue competition model is evaluated and finds strong support in a set of cross‐sectional time‐series analyses.     

The Recent Appearance of Favelas in São Paulo City: an Old Problem in a New Setting

Abstract— While favelas have been an important feature of many Brazilian cities over the past 50 years, they were relatively insignificant in São Paulo until the mid- 1970s. Since then, São Paulo's favelas have experienced a dramatic expansion and some estimates now put their total population in the region of two million. This article examines potential explanations for this sudden change, including migration, changes in the housing market, relative prices and state intervention.