The Private Interests of Public Officials: Financial Regulation in the US Congress

Legislators' private financial holdings affect policy decisions. Due to financial self‐interest, we theorize that legislators whose personal investment portfolios include equities from firms affected by proposed policies vote for legislation that benefits those firms. We also theorize that legislators with greater personal exposure to equity investments support policies that benefit equities markets generally. We create a novel data set of legislators' personal stock investments and examine major congressional actions since the 1990s on financial deregulation and market intervention. US House members who own stocks in firms who benefit from financial deregulation vote for deregulation. House members with greater exposure to financial and automotive stocks support the financial and auto bailouts, respectively. General exposure to equities markets is also associated with support for key legislation boosting markets. The normative implications are significant, as legislators' private interests influence decisions in the public sphere.     

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Machine learning models, especially ensemble and tree-based approaches, offer great promise to legislative scholars. However, they are heavily underutilized outside of narrow applications to text and networks. We believe this is because they are difficult to interpret: while the models are extremely flexible, they have been criticized as “black box” techniques due to their difficulty in visualizing the effect of predictors on the outcome of interest. In order to make these models more useful for legislative scholars, we introduce a framework integrating machine learning models with traditional parametric approaches. We then review three interpretative plotting strategies that scholars can use to bring a substantive interpretation to their machine learning models. For each, we explain the plotting strategy, when to use it, and how to interpret it. We then put these plots in action by revisiting two recent articles from Legislative Studies Quarterly.     

Identifying Predictors for Children Witnessing Intimate Partner Violence

Research has shown that intimate partner violence (IPV) prevalence and severity is higher and IPV duration is longer among couples that have children. Women frequently report that their children are the reason why they stay, leave, or return to an IPV relationship. Our study used results from a two-wave telephone survey to determine what IPV-associated factors were significant predictors of respondents’ children witnessing IPV, as well as estimating prevalence of children’s exposure to violence. We found that an increase in respondents’ age was significantly associated with increased odds of a child being exposed to violence. We also found that children witnessing violence were almost twice as likely to have mothers who reported leaving abusers. We hypothesize that increasing age corresponds to improved confidence in help-seeking behaviors. Our findings represent an important first step for future research on understanding how children influence IPV victims’ decision-making in seeking out service providers for help.     

Dual-Factor Mental Health from Childhood to Early Adolescence and Associated Factors: A Latent Transition Analysis

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - The dual-factor model of mental health indicates the importance of simultaneously assessing symptoms and subjective wellbeing, but there is limited understanding...     

When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation

Leadership targeting has become a key feature of current counterterrorism policies. Both academics and policy makers have argued that the removal of leaders is an effective strategy in combating terrorism. However, leadership decapitation is not always successful, and existing empirical work is insufficient to account for this variability. As a result, this project answers three primary questions: (1) Under what conditions does leadership decapitation result in the dissolution of a terrorist organization?; (2) Does leadership decapitation increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond the baseline rate of collapse for groups over time?; and (3) In cases where decapitation does not result in group collapse, to what extent does it result in organizational degradation and hinder a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks? I develop a dataset of 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945–2004 in order to determine whether and when decapitation is effective. First, I identify the conditions under which decapitation has been successful in bringing about organizational decline. The data show that a group's age, size, and type are critical in identifying when decapitation will cause the cessation of terrorist activity. As an organization grows in size and age, it is much more likely to withstand the removal of its leadership. Organizational type is also significant in understanding the susceptibility of an organization to decapitation. Ideological organizations are most likely to experience a cessation of activity following the removal of leader, while religious organizations are highly resistant to leadership decapitation. Second, I determine whether decapitation is an effective counterterrorism strategy that results in organizational collapse. The data show that decapitation does not increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond a baseline rate of collapse for groups over time. Organizations that have not had their leaders removed are more likely to fall apart than those that have undergone a loss of leadership. The marginal utility of decapitation is negative for many groups, particularly for larger, older, religious, and separatist organizations. Finally, I look at the extent to which decapitation results in organizational degradation and hinders a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks. Case studies illustrate whether decapitation has an effect on the operational capacity of an organization by identifying whether the removal of key leaders changes the number and lethality of attacks. If certain organizations are more resilient than others, it is important to know when decapitation should be effective and when it could lead to counterproductive outcomes. Overall, these findings illustrate the need to develop a new model for evaluating the efficacy of leadership decapitation and for developing effective counterterrorism policies.     

Getting the story from child witnesses: exploring the application of a story grammar framework

Abstract

Investigative interviews with children about alleged abuse were analysed to determine the degree to which the child's responses adhered to a story grammar framework, and whether the presence of story grammar elements was associated with interviewers’ adherence to best-practice (i.e. open-ended) questioning. The sample included 51 interviews with child witnesses from across Australia. The interviews were administered by a police officer with children (37 girls and 14 boys) aged 3–16 years (M age = 103.82 months, SD = 34.21 months). The interviewers’ questions were categorised as open-ended or specific and the children's responses were classified as a story grammar element, context/background information, or ‘don't know’ responses. The majority of interviewer questions were specific in nature and the majority of children's responses were context/background details. Open-ended questions were more successful in eliciting story grammar from children. Of the story grammar elements, the interviewers’ specific questions usually targeted setting and attempt details. These findings suggest that improvement in the narrative coherence of children's reports of abusive events can potentially be achieved by increasing interviewers’ use of open-ended questions.     

Introduction

SUMMARY

Previously homeless women (17) and men (12) were surveyed on their experience as a caregiver to physically challenged senior citizen clients (16 men, 13 women: age M= 64.7, SD = 16.8). Caregivers had training in service delivery and experience before the survey. More satisfaction than stress from providing care was reported by caregivers. Caregiving satisfaction was significantly positively related to global life satisfaction and a sense of personal vulnerability to being disabled. Caregiving stress was significantly negatively related to perceived knowledge of the disability. Overall, these previously homeless caregivers reported that providing care to the disabled was positive, and would be repeated and recommended to Others.     

Comment on Harvey Jacobs' “Social conflict over property rights: the end,a new beginning,or a continuing debate?”

Jacobs draws on history, law, politics, and policy to examine the development and response of the private property movement and the social conflict over property rights and public planning. This comment suggests that the debate be broadened beyond the advocates of property rights and planning to include the interests of other members of the community, including minority and low-income households who are often affected by the outcomes. Otherwise, property will continue to be used to exclude people from democracy, rather than include them.