Portfolio models and planning for export diversification: Malawi,Tanzania and Zimbabwe

Evidence is presented regarding strengths and limitations of portfolio approaches as applied to diversifying export earnings. An empirical application using data from Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe is used to demonstrate these strengths and limitations. Modifications of the typical portfolio approach to export diversification are presented; these modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in developing countries. The modified approach is shown to provide guidance to policymakers who seek simultaneously to increase export earnings and reduce their instability.     

The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Schooling of Orphans and Other Directly Affected Children in Sub-Saharan Africa

This is the second of two articles that assess the available evidence concerning the impact of the AIDS epidemic on teachers and the schooling of orphans and other directly affected children in sub-Saharan Africa. The two main conclusions of this article are, firstly, that current and future projections of orphan country populations are likely to be serious overestimates. And secondly, while the impact of losing one or both parents on educational attainment is often much less than has been suggested, Ministries of Education need to act decisively in order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on the schooling of these children.     

Behavioural Response to a Sudden Health Risk: Dengue and Educational Outcomes in Colombia

Epidemics tend to have a debilitating influence on the lives of directly afflicted families. However, the presence of an epidemic can also change the behaviour and outcomes of those not directly affected. This paper makes use of a short, sharp, unexpected epidemic to examine the behavioural response of the public to a sudden shift in the perceived risk to one’s health and mortality. Our analysis finds that unafflicted school students change their behaviour substantially, affecting important life outcomes. In particular, we find that between 1.9 and 4.7 fewer students, out of a typical cohort of 47 pupils, sit their school leaving examination for every additional 10 cases of severe Dengue per 10 000 inhabitants in a municipality. We rule out several possible mechanisms, leaving an increase in the salience of the disease’s risks as a plausible explanation for our findings.     

Renminbi appreciation and Global Value Chains in China: exploring the linkages

China has experienced a rapid integration into Global Value Chains and a decade long appreciation of its exchange rate. However, these trends have been analysed largely in isolation from each other. In this paper, we explore the linkages between the two based on interviews with a sample of firms in Jiangsu Province. We show (1) how the distribution of the costs and benefits of exchange rate appreciation depends on the power hierarchies between firms in GVCs; (2) how exchange rate changes are important drivers of upgrading and even downgrading in GVCs; and (3) that the firm heterogeneity evident in GVCs provides additional insights into the politics of exchange rate determination in China.