An Integrated Theory of Budgetary Politics and Some Empirical Tests: The U.S. National Budget, 1791–2010

We develop a general theory of budgetary politics and examine its implications on a new data set on U.S. government expenditures from 1791 to 2010. We draw on three major approaches to budgeting: decision‐making theories, primarily incrementalism and serial processing; policy process models; and path dependency. We show that the incrementalist budget model is recursive and that its solution is exponential growth, and isolate three periods in which it operates in pure form. The equilibrium periods are separated by critical junctures, associated with wars or economic collapse. We assess policy process dynamics by examining the deviations within equilibrium periods. We offer three takeaways: (1) exponential incrementalism is fundamental to a theory of budgeting; (2) disjoint shifts in the level of exponential incrementalism are caused only by critical moments; (3) temporally localized dynamics cause bends in the exponential path, longer returns to the path within budgetary eras, and annual punctuations in budget changes.     

Concentrations of zolpidem and zopiclone in venous blood samples from impaired drivers compared with femoral blood from forensic autopsies

The concentrations of zolpidem and zopiclone were determined in peripheral blood samples in two forensic materials collected over a 10-year period (2001-2010). The z-hypnotics were determined in venous blood from living subjects (impaired drivers) and in femoral blood from deceased persons (forensic autopsies), with the latter classified as intoxication or other causes of death. The z-hypnotics were determined in blood by capillary column gas chromatography (GC) with a nitrogen-phosphorous (N-P) detector after solvent extraction with n-butyl acetate. The analytical limit of quantitation (LOQ) was 0.02mg/L for zopiclone and 0.05mg/L for zolpidem and these have remained unchanged throughout the study. When death was attributed to drug intoxication (N=918), the median concentration of zopiclone in blood was 0.20mg/L compared with 0.06mg/L for other causes of death (N=1215) and 0.07mg/L in traffic offenders (N=691) (p<0.001). Likewise, a higher median concentration (0.30mg/L) was found in intoxication deaths involving zolpidem (N=357) compared with 0.13mg/L for other causes of death (N=397) or 0.19mg/L in impaired drivers (N=837) (p<0.001). Median concentration in blood of both z-hypnotics were appreciably higher in intoxication deaths when no other substances were identified; 0 70mg/L (N=12) for zopiclone and 1.35mg/L (N=12) for zolpidem. The median concentrations of z-hypnotics in blood decreased as the number of co-ingested substances increased for intoxication deaths but not other causes of death. The most prevalent co-ingested substances were ethanol in autopsy cases and diazepam in the motorists. This large compilation of forensic cases should prove useful when toxicologists are required to interpret concentrations of z-hypnotics in blood samples in relation to cause of death.     

Human plague in New Mexico: report of three autopsied cases

Plague is a deadly disease of obvious concern to individuals, communities, and public health officials. The rapid recognition of plague victims is of paramount importance in saving the lives of the victims and in the protection of contacts. Three autopsied plague cases have been presented and the pathological features have been discussed.     

Crime change patterns in American cities

A longitudinal analysis of the changes in crime rates between the late 1950s and 1970 in the 155 largest U.S. cities indicates that (1) there is virtually no relationship between the four major crimes against persons although there is strong mutual association between the four major crimes against property; (2) changes in racial composition account for more variation in changes in crime than do changes in income, thereby suggesting the need for more detailed studies of the noneconomic ways in which a city's racial composition affects crime incidence; and (3) there is a modest relationship between changes in the number of male youth and changes in certain types of crime. Since these findings are based on highly aggregated data with both known and unknown measurement errors, they must be treated cautiously.