Central banks’ communication as reputation management: How the Fed talks under uncertainty

This article advances a reputation‐based account to explain the relative salience that different issues assume in central banks’ communication. Based on an innovative dataset consisting of a corpus of speeches by the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System of the United States (also known as the Fed) delivered from 2006 to 2016, the analysis shows that the most salient issues in the Fed's communication are shaped by reputational concerns about policy reversals. Specifically, when these concerns are higher, the Fed is more likely to focus on issues related to areas where its reputation is weak or not yet established—that is, issues related to credit easing and systemic financial regulation. In contrast, issues related to activities where the Fed's reputation is established are likely to become less salient—that is, issues related to economic activity and inflation. A similar pattern of issue attention is observed when the Fed addresses political audiences compared to other audiences.     

Vertical transfers and the appropriation of resources by the bureaucracy: the case of Brazilian state governments

The purpose of this study is to explore whether the transfers received by state governments in Brazil are being appropriated by the bureaucracy as wages. The wage differential between the public and private sectors was used as a measure of this appropriation, following the technique for wage decomposition proposed by Oaxaca. Our results show that transfers stimulate appropriation by the bureaucracy, but that private groups existing within the states contend for these resources. The results also indicate that the resources appropriated are distributed uniformly between the various groups composing the bureaucracy.     

The Impact of Daycare Attendance on Math Test Scores for a Cohort of Fourth Graders in Brazil

We estimate the impact of having attended centre-based daycare institutions during early childhood on math test scores at the fourth grade level of elementary school. We find evidence that daycare attendance has a net impact on math proficiency, and that the effects are heterogeneous. The effect of daycare and kindergarten attendance on proficiency varies according to mother’s education. The effects of the impact of daycare vary from ?0.28 standard deviation for mothers with no education to 0.42 standard deviation for mother’s with college or more.     

Private operation with public supervision: evidence of hybrid modes of governance in prisons

Received theories suggest a possible cost-quality tradeoff when private outsourcing arrangements are used in public services. Using data from Brazilian prisons, our study provides evidence that contradicts this prediction: the prisons not only run at a lower cost, but also show similar or improved performance on a range of quality indicators. The attenuation of the cost-quality dilemma in our context is due to the hybrid management, which allocates control rights to a state-appointed public supervisor. We also discuss conditions in which the public supervisor may refrain from colluding with the private agent, therefore guaranteeing an effective monitoring of service quality.     

Out of Place (Gwalia): Occasional Essays on Australian Regional Communities and Built Environments in Transition

Out of Place (Gwalia): Occasional Essays on Australian Regional Communities and Built Environments in Transition. Edited by Philip Goldswain, Nicole Sully, and William M. Taylor (Perth: UWA Publishing, 2014), pp.xi + 311. AU$39.99 (pb).     

A Proposed Scheme for Classifying Pediatric Rib Head Fractures Using Case Examples

Pediatric rib head fractures are typically described as “posterior” or “costovertebral,” terms lacking specificity. To resolve this issue, a scheme was developed to describe the location of rib head fractures observed in a pediatric forensic population. The scheme uses three anatomical landmarks, terminus (tip), tubercle, and costovertebral articular surface to divide the rib head into two subregions, costovertebral and costotransverse. Examples of five cases of infants with rib head fractures are presented using this scheme. Forty‐eight rib head fractures were observed in these infants with the following frequencies: 56% (three infants) at the terminus; 21% (three infants) in the costovertebral subregion; 21% (one infant) at the costovertebral articular facet; and 2% (one infant) in the costotransverse subregion. Due to the small number of cases assessed, statistical analyses could not be performed; however, the data demonstrate the variation in distribution of pediatric rib head fractures.     

Counting Portuguese colonial populations, 1776–1875: a research note

In 1776 the Portuguese Crown decreed that statistical population tables were to be compiled in all its overseas possessions. Using a defined model, each governor was to send annually a population count for the area under his jurisdiction. In the Arquivo Histórico Ultramarino (AHU) in Lisbon there are over a thousand statistical population tables from Brazil to Macau. This documentary corpus opens up important horizons for demographic, social and colonial history, though it has been relatively ignored by historians and demographers. These sources enable us to study the demography and the administrative processes adopted in census-taking during the construction of the Portuguese Empire between 1776 and 1875. The following research note emphasizes the distinctive aspects of the sources, the data and its potential, and the research agenda.     

The enhanced cognitive interview: expressions of uncertainty,motivation and its relation with report accuracy

The Enhanced Cognitive Interview (ECI) is one of the most widely studied and used methods to interview witnesses. However, ECI research has mainly focused on increasing report size and somewhat overlooked how to improve and evaluate report accuracy. No study evaluated if witnesses’ spontaneous expressions of uncertainty are accurate metacognitive judgments, nor if witnesses’ motivation during the interview affects report accuracy. This study examined how witnesses’ judgments of recall ‘uncertainty’ and their motivation perception could relate to report accuracy. Forty-four psychology students watched a mock robbery video recording and were interviewed 48 hours later with either the Portuguese version of the ECI or a Structured Interview (SI). Afterward, participants’ motivation was assessed and items of information were classified as ‘certainties’ or ‘uncertainties’. Results suggest that our ECI protocol was effective, since participants interviewed with the ECI produced more information without compromising accuracy. ‘Uncertainties’ were less accurate than ‘certainties’, and their exclusion raised overall, ECI, and SI, accuracy. More motivated participants had better recall accuracy. Accounting for witnesses’ motivation and spontaneous verbal expressions of uncertainty may be effective and time-saving procedures to increase accuracy. These are key points that professionals and researchers should consider.     

Assessing the Reliability of Retrospective Reports of Adverse Childhood Experiences among Adolescents with Documented Childhood Maltreatment

The literature suggests that childhood maltreatment is related to a higher probability of developing psychopathology and disease in adulthood. However, some authors have questioned the reliability of self-reports of maltreatment, suggesting that psychopathology at the time of evaluation affects self-reports. We evaluated the reliability of the self-reports of 79 young adults who were identified in childhood by Child Protective Services by comparing two moments of evaluation. Psychological and physical symptoms were tested to evaluate their interference with the reports. We found good to excellent agreement, with no significant correlation between the changes in self-reported experiences and the changes in physical and psychological symptoms, suggesting that the reliability of reports is not related to the health state at the time of the report.