Why some countries are immune from the resource curse: The role of economic norms

The political resource curse – the detrimental effect of natural resource dependence on democracy – is a well-established correlate of authoritarianism. A long-standing puzzle, however, is why some countries seem to be immune from it. We address this issue systematically by distinguishing two kinds of economies: contract-intensive, where individuals normally obtain their incomes in the marketplace; and clientelist, where individuals normally obtain their incomes in groups that compete over state rents. We theorize that the institutionalized patronage opportunities in clientelist economies are an important precondition for the resource curse, and that nations with contract-intensive economies are immune from it. Analysis of 150 countries from 1973 to 2000 yields robust support for this view. By introducing clientelist economy as a prerequisite for the resource curse, this study offers an important advance in understanding how nations democratize.     

Why accommodate minorities asymmetrically? A theory of ideological authority insulation

Tensions between regionalist claimants and state-wide governments remain the primary source of violent conflicts. Existing theories cannot systematically explain why and when state-wide governments accede to such claims. Building on the partisan approaches developed so far, a theory of ideological authority insulation is constructed in this article. It is argued that the willingness of state-wide parties to transfer authority to specific territorial entities is predominantly informed by ideological proximity to those entities. In a nutshell, the dominant conflict dimension in a country superimposes partisan rationales on the territorial dimension. A new dataset has been compiled with roughly 4,300 region-cabinet dyads between 1945 and 2015, including electoral data, party positions and regional ‘centres of gravity’. Using panel rare-events regressions, it is found that ideological proximity systematically explains the accommodation of minority demand controlling for alternative explanations from the partisan and ethnic conflict literature. The empirical evidence therefore supports adding ideological insulation and superimposition to the toolbox of partisan and conflict researchers. Additionally, the findings encourage the application of arguments from the conflict literature in established democracies and the testing of insights from partisan researchers in less democratic environments.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

The Global Political Economy of Right-wing Populism: Deconstructing the Paradox

ABSTRACT

The rise of right-wing populism should be studied as a truly global phenomenon. Domestic and regional contexts are obviously crucial, yet a narrow focus on the domestic realm fails to capture some of the key constituents and paradoxical features of the rise and resilience of right-wing populist projects around the world. Therefore, right-wing populism and the way its contradictions are ‘managed’ ought to be understood within the context of mutual interactions between: 1) an economy-identity nexus and 2) a domestic-foreign policy nexus. A critical review of six controversial aspects of right-wing populism in the global North and global South is used to substantiate this main argument.     

Multiple imaginations of the state: understanding a mobile conflict about justice and accountability from the perspective of Assyrian–Syriac communities

This article examines how the struggle for the recognition of genocide in the twentieth century opens up a political space which, on the one hand, generates historical discourses and imaginaries about the categories of victim and perpetrator and, on the other hand, redefines relationships between the state and its minority citizens. Genocide becomes a ‘critical event’, in the sense of Veena Das, that citizens from different ethnic, social and religious backgrounds use to express their positions concerning the repressive state practices they have been victims of. This expression creates a collective space of solidarity where parties support each other by adopting similar strategies in the struggle for state accountability. At the same time, it opens up a space for negotiation among the state, minority citizens and migrant communities regarding claims to rights and justice.     

Application of Kvaal et al.'s age estimation method to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals

Age estimation of living adult individuals can be accomplished with limited methods. Radiographic dental methods based on the pulpal narrowing with secondary dentin formation have been presented. In the present study, Kvaal et al.'s method, one of the radiographic dental age estimation methods, was applied to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals. The correlation between chronological and estimated ages was examined and the feasibility of length and width measurements of pulp cavity was evaluated for age estimation. The study population consisted of 123 patients with ages ranging from 14 to 57 years. The measurements of the length and width of six types of teeth on digitized panoramic radiographs were performed, and the ratios between tooth and pulp cavity measurements were calculated. Age was estimated using the linear regression models presented by Kvaal et al. and Paewinsky et al. High differences were observed between chronological and estimated ages. Measurement ratios showed no significant or weak correlation with age. The linear regression models were derived using variables that were significantly correlated with age. The determination coefficients of the models varied from 0.035 to 0.345. In conclusion, a difference of more than 12 years in the chronological and estimated ages derived using regression models in literature was found on panoramic radiographs in Turkish individuals. The length and width of the pulp cavity, measured according to the method of Kvaal et al. using panoramic radiographs, were insufficient to precisely estimate the age of Turkish individuals.     

Civil Society and Deliberative Democracy: Have Voluntary Organisations Faded from National Public Politics?

The political context of civil society in Western Europe has changed dramatically in recent decades. These changing circumstances may produce a decline in the integration of civil society into political life – especially deliberative activities at the national level. This article discusses how serious these alleged threats are to a hitherto vital civil society – that of Sweden. It focuses on fours indicators of organised civil society's contribution to deliberative democracy. First, have efforts to contact politicians, public servants and the media, as well as participation in public debates, decreased? Second, has civil society directed interest away from national arenas and instead concentrated resources in local and/or supranational arenas? Third, is there any evidence of a withdrawal from public activities, such as public debates and media activities in favour of direct contacts with politicians and public servants? Fourth, has civil society become more professionalised in the sense that interest groups are increasingly hiring professional consultants? Two surveys conducted in 1999 and 2005 show that Swedish organised civil society has not faded from national public politics. However, growing public participation is almost exclusively connected to increasing communication via the mass media and direct contact with politicians. Taking part in open public debate has not increased. The national arena has marginally lost some importance. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency to hire professional lobbying consultants. This might improve the quality of civil society's contributions to public deliberation, but a more elitist civil society might also develop, which is uninterested in social dialogue.     

Democracies and Deficits: Prospects for Fiscal Responsibility in Democratic Nations

The financial crisis had significant implications for the fiscal positions of OECD. As nations seek to cope with the economic contraction, budget deficits and debt have risen to near record postwar levels. As the crisis in Europe and other advanced economies has deepened, fiscal consolidation will have to be coupled, and even preceded, by actions to jump‐start crippled economies. Nonetheless, when fiscal consolidation becomes necessary, nations that procrastinate by waiting for a crisis to provide cover for the politically hard choices will pay a steep price indeed both economically and politically. Many in the academic and policy community have raised questions about whether advanced democracies have the political wherewithal to respond to gathering fiscal pressures through early and timely action. Recent fiscal actions in advanced nations suggest that democracies are not doomed to wait for market shocks and crises. Rather, leaders have shown that fiscal sacrifice can be achieved in ways that promote electability. In this article, we discuss the impetus for democratic fiscal actions and the strategies used to gain public support.     

Labour Market Organisations' Participation in Swedish Public Policy–Making

Unions and employers are political actors. Besides defending their interests on the labour market they act in the political arena. In order to weaken the trade unions, neoliberal parties and employers’ organisations have tried to change existing systems in Sweden and elsewhere. Hence, the general questions being asked in this article are: Do Swedish labour market organisations still participate in (i.e. try to influence) public policy–making on a large scale? Are there any substantial differences in the degree to which unions and employers’ organisations participate or in their access and strategies of participation? In this article it is argued that while participation of labour market organisations in the old institutionalised framework has decreased, it has not vanished. Labour market organisations are also very much involved in public policy–making by informally contacting politicians and public servants. The unions have extensive contacts with politicians on all levels, but especially with the Social Democratic Party, while employers’ organisations have more intense contacts with the public administration and public servants. The overall picture being presented in this article is that labour market organisations in Sweden have not at all been left out in the cold. It is clear that Sweden is far from the British situation and still remains similar to its Scandinavian neighbours.