Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”

Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.     

Comparative study of electrochromic enhancement of latent fingerprints with existing development techniques

To address the challenge of capturing latent fingerprint evidence from metal surfaces, a new method of latent fingerprint enhancement based on electrochromic polymer films has recently been developed. Here, we present a study comparing the development and visualization of nonvisible fingerprints on stainless steel substrates using this electrochromic enhancement approach with three classical methods (dusting, wet powder, and cyanoacrylate fuming). Two variants of the electrochromic enhancement method were utilized with polyaniline and poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) as the electrochromic materials. Fingerprint samples were taken from different donors (varying in age and gender) and were exposed to different environments for systematically varied periods of time (up to 28 days). The environments represent plausible evidential scenarios: left under ambient conditions, washed with aqueous soap solution, washed with acetone, submerged in water, and maintained at elevated temperature. The electrochromic enhancement procedure frequently outperformed the traditional methods, particularly for samples exposed to more challenging histories.     

Numerical classification of curvilinear structures for the identification of pistol barrels

This paper demonstrates a numerical pattern recognition method applied to curvilinear image structures. These structures are extracted from physical cross-sections of cast internal pistol barrel surfaces. Variations in structure arise from gun design and manufacturing method providing a basis for discrimination and identification. Binarised curvilinear land transition images are processed with fast Fourier transform on which principal component analysis is performed. One-way analysis of variance (95% confidence interval) concludes significant differentiation between 11 barrel manufacturers when calculating weighted Euclidean distance between any trio of land transitions and an average land transition for each barrel in the database. The proposed methodology is therefore a promising novel approach for the classification and identification of firearms.     

Sobering Up on the Streets: Homeless Men in Alcoholics Anonymous

An exploratory, qualitative examination of homeless, recovering alcoholic men in a Twelve-Step program shows the ways these men adapt tools of sobriety to match their needs. Using semi-structured interviews, the experiences of these men were evaluated in order to find out how they stay sober without a formal place to live. Based on the narrative histories, three varieties of adaptations to the conventional Alcoholics Anonymous program are discussed: excessive twelfth-stepping, a mélange of religious principles, and unrealistic ideals. Implications for treatment and directions for future research are discussed.     

The Paradox of the State-Run Media Promoting Poor Governance in China: Case Studies of a Party Newspaper and an Anticorruption Film

ABSTRACT

This essay draws on the analysis of media texts and ethnographic fieldwork to present case studies of the production, distribution, and consumption of two kinds of media products in China that are used for educating cadres about official policies, law and morality, namely, a Party-produced prefectural newspaper and an anticorruption film. Such pedagogic media products merit study because they are consumed by a huge audience of cadres who are entrusted with interpreting and implementing state policy and with carrying out the daily work of the different institutions that make up the Party-state. The case studies show that the internal circulation of pedagogic media products within the Party-state apparatus works in two ways to reinforce “organizational involution,” which causes poor governance. First, the content of the media products and their methods of distribution buttress the norms and institutional practices that entrench unchallenged power, corruption, and official malfeasance within the system. Examples include the role of top-down administrative fiat in determining the content of the media products and the ways in which individuals and institutions are compelled to purchase materials and participate in pedagogic activities to secure their positions. Second, state pedagogy deflects attention away from the structural failings of the Party-state system. The pedagogic products enable the Party-state to portray itself as the leading crusader in the fight against corruption, despite the corrupting consequences of its continuing unsupervised monopoly on power. Meanwhile, self-improvement exhortations in the media texts sidestep the question of systemic political reform.     

Local governments' monopoly power and local tax reform: Theory and evidence from the U.K.

Public Choice - The paper briefly reviews recent research that adapts and extends the Tiebout model of residential choice, paying special attention to those studies which utilize Hirschman's...     

A vindication of the rights of girls: surviving girlhood in the 21st century

ABSTRACT

Between 2014 to 2016 we conducted mixed-methods research exploring girls’ experiences of growing up in the UK in the 21st century. We spoke to girls and young women between the ages of 10 and 24 in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to gain a qualitative snapshot of what matters to girls. We also conducted the first quantitative study of a range of quality of life indicators disaggregated by age and gender in the UK to garner a statistical view of geographically-based experiences of growing up girl. The study was commissioned by Plan International UK and The State of Girls’ Rights report was launched in September 2016. What struck us at the time of writing the report was the resonance between challenges girls raised in 2016 and those proclaimed by Wollstonecraft in her 1792 treatise, A Vindication of the Rights of Woman published over 200 years earlier. Here we bring together these voices from the 18th and 21st centuries to consider the continuing legacy and resonance of Wollstonecraft’s ideas in thinking about growing up girl in Britain.