Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores

Revenue forecasts play an important role in the state government budget and policy process. These forecasts are generally reported to executive and legislative leaders as point estimates, with no acknowledgment of their corresponding risk and uncertainty. The revenue semaphores proposed in this article outline procedures by which revenue uncertainty directly influences the planning process. The goal is not to make forecasts more accurate, but to make discussions of budget and revenue alternatives more comprehensive. Explicitly incorporating risk and uncertainty measures into the budgeting process increases the degree of real-time budgeting and reduces some adverse effects of budget revisions after the fiscal year begins. The discussion occurs in the context of budget control, management, and policy making.     

Measuring party orientations towards European integration: Results from an expert survey

Abstract Some observers have held that political parties have been minor players in the process of European integration due to the low salience of the issue and the prevalence of intra party disagreement over European questions. Although recent scholarship and the rising salience of European issues have brought increased attention to the role of political parties, the study of the relationship between party positions and both public opinion and policy outcomes has been hampered by an absence of comparable data on party positions. This research note presents the findings of an expert survey on party positions on the issue of European integration. In addition to estimates of the parties' positions on the issue itself, this survey provides information on the importance of the issue of European integration to each party, and the extent of internal dissent within parties. The data also indicate that parties have, on average, become increasingly pro–European over the period 1984–1996. Both the salience of the issue of integration and the extent of intra–party disagreement have increased during this period. However, deep intra–party divisions appear less prevalent than commonly believed.     

Dynamics of stab wounds: force required for penetration of various cadaveric human tissues

It is often said that once the skin has been penetrated no further force is required to produce penetration of underlying tissues. This experimental study has used technology which was not available to earlier investigators to examine this issue in detail. The results confirm the importance of skin penetration but indicate that the penetration of other tissues may also require significant force.     

Ideo‐theology and the Jewish state: from conflict to conciliation?

The assassination of Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin provided the most vivid demonstration to date of religious‐nationalist opposition inside Israel to the principle of exchanging land for peace. This article sets out to explore this world view and its intellectual origins, exploring in the process how the use of sacred Judaic texts have become both the monopoly of religious‐nationalism and the template for politically inspired violence against those in Israel suspected of condoning territorial compromise. This article concludes that if the ideo‐the‐ology of religious‐nationalists is to be assuaged, a religious discourse supporting territorial retrenchment has to become part of the political fabric of the centre‐left in Israel.     

Separation of visibly-excited fluorescent components in fingerprint residue by thin-layer chromatography

The use of lasers for the detection of fingermarks is widespread in the forensic field. Despite this, and the fact that many studies have been conducted into the composition of fingermark residue, the components responsible for the inherent visible fluorescence remain unidentified. Traditionally compositional studies have been performed on sweat, sebum, or skin surface washes, none of which are truly representative of the situation when a fingerprint is deposited on a surface. In this paper thin-layer chromatography (TLC) has been performed on sebum-rich fingermarks laid directly onto TLC plates and an argon ion laser used to visualize the separated components. It has been found to be a robust and reproducible method for studying the fluorescent components in fingermark residue and is considered to be more realistic than other methods of sample preparation as it eliminates the chances of extraneous matter being extracted from the skin surface. Investigations into the nature of the separated compounds have also been made and the results are reported.     

Learning from Uncle Sam? Exploring U.S. Influences on British Crime Control Policy

This paper examines the idea of "policy transfer" in the arena of crime control. More specifically, it examines the influence of the United States on recent criminal justice and penal policy developments in Britain. Three policy areas are discussed: privatized corrections, "zero-tolerance" policing, and "three-strikes" sentencing. Changes in these areas are widely perceived as being strongly influenced by developments in the U.S., although there has yet to be a systematic empirical study of how and why these policy developments occurred. Drawing on a review of literature, this paper examines the plausibility of the idea of policy transfer and highlights distinct routes through which policy transfer may occur between jurisdictions. It uses Bennett's (1991) model of "policy convergence" as a framework for exploring how "emulation,""elite-networking,""harmonization," and "penetration" might have been relevant to policy changes in these areas. Finally, the paper considers how the concept of policy transfer in criminal justice and penal policy might be further examined empirically.     

Public choice and public policy: The vulnerability of economic advice to the interpretation of politicians

The confidence with which politicians defend their policies is in marked contrast to the qualifications which academic researchers attach to their results. The difference is indicative of a failure of the political market, whereby politicians have an incentive to select policies for electoral and ideological reasons and to minimise any uncertainty associated with policy effectiveness. In this scenario dissension between economists is of value if it alerts individuals to the sensitivity of policy answers to the framework in which they are derived. Moreover, with government failure, public choice analysts are faced with the problem of how best to amend policy advice in order to allow for potential distortion at the hands of politicians.The authors are Senior Lecturers in Economics and Members of the Centre for Fiscal Studies, University of Bath. They wish to acknowledge the very helpful comments of Professors Gordon Tullock, Harry Collins and an anonymous referee. Any errors that might remain are, of course, the sole responsibility of the authors.