Suspects,Lies, and Videotape: An Analysis of Authentic High-Stake Liars

This study is one of the very few, and the most extensive to date, which has examined deceptive behavior in a real-life, high-stakes setting. The behavior of 16 suspects in their police interviews has been analyzed. Clips of video footage have been selected where other sources (reliable witness statements and forensic evidence) provide evidence that the suspect lied or told the truth. Truthful and deceptive behaviors were compared. The suspects blinked less frequently and made longer pauses during deceptive clips than during truthful clips. Eye contact was maintained equally for deceptive and truthful clips. These findings negate the popular belief amongst both laypersons and professional lie detectors (such as the police) that liars behave nervously by fidgeting and avoiding eye contact. However, large individual differences were present.     

Criminal psychological profiling of serial arson crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.     

The interplay between economic and political logics: path dependency in health care in England

The purpose of this article is to use the ideas of path dependency to understand why policies implemented by governments for health care in England were and are suboptimal in terms of the control of total costs, the equitable distribution of hospital services, and efficiency in delivery. We do this by relating the economic logic of achieving these objectives to the political logic of a state-hierarchical system in which ministers are accountable for the effects of policies and doctors largely decide the supply and demand of health care. The initial policy path of the National Health Service (NHS) controlled costs but lacked systems to achieve equity and efficiency in the funding of hospitals. Policies were introduced to achieve equity, but not efficiency, in the 1970s. The Thatcher government sought efficiency through a budgetary squeeze in the 1980s, which culminated in the NHS funding crisis of 1987 - 1988. The result was the policies of the NHS internal market, which promised efficiency by introducing a purchaser-provider split and a system of provider competition in which money would follow the patient. These promises justified an injection of extra funds for three years, but only a pallid model of the internal market was implemented. The Blair government abandoned the rhetoric of competition but maintained the purchaser-provider split and continued to constrain total NHS costs, which resulted in the funding crisis of 1998 - 1999. Current policies are to substantially increase spending on health care and reintroduce a system of provider competition in which money will follow the patient.     

The evaluation of the extent of transporting or "tracking" an identifiable ignitable liquid (gasoline) throughout fire scenes during the investigative process

Tests have determined that boots or shoes of individuals at a fire scene do not transport sufficient contaminants ("tracking") through the fire scene to produce a positive laboratory result for the presence of gasoline in a fire scene that was not present at the time of the fire. Questions about the validity of forensic laboratory results have been raised on the basis that low-level gasoline residues detected in the laboratory samples could have been the result of transporting the residue by footwear contaminated from the fire scene ("tracking"). The data collected in this study establish that "tracking" does not lead to false-positive laboratory results. Canines trained and experienced in the detection of trace ignitable liquid residues were also utilized in this study. The canine results confirmed that properly trained canines show a higher sensitivity than do standard ASTM laboratory techniques for fire debris analysis. In a few cases, canines responded to contamination, but laboratory testing (which is the definitive indicator) did not produce positive results.     

New paradigms in researching police use of firearms

In the current climate of increasing violence against the police, the use of force by police officers has been the focus of much dabate, ranging from the use of non lethal incapacitant sprays to the use of lethal force^I. We review literature concerning the use of lethal force by police officers, evaluate its utility for operational contexts, consider its implications for training and propose that new technological devices can revolutionise the identification of crucial variables.     

The Effect of a Standard to Improve Person Descriptions by Children

This study examines whether or not using a person as a standard/comparison improves the ability of a child witness to provide more accurate detail about a previously observed person. Study participants included 135 children who observed a male stranger and were then later asked to describe and answer various questions about that person using a third-person standard/comparison. Despite the fact that one-half of participants were exposed to a standard/comparison, neither participants’ gender or exposure to the standard/comparison improved recollection outcomes. However, the gender of the standard/comparisons - especially where female - did have a significant effect on the recall ability of male participants.     

Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.