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Using interview and survey data, we argue there are three types of places in the rural United States, and that their social and economic conditions help us understand emerging political trends, including the rural support for Donald Trump. More rural votes were cast for the Republican presidential candidate in 2016 than in other recent elections, yet shifts to Republican votes were greatest in places undergoing the most significant economic transitions. Work in rural communities has been a source of pride and cultural identity for people as well as places, but many feel the new economy is not working for them. 相似文献
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This article examines the well-documented relationship between early initiation or onset of criminal behavior and a heightened
risk of involvement in offending. Previous research examining this question conducted by Nagin and Farrington (Criminology
30:235–260, 1992a; Criminology 30:501–523, 1992b) used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and found that: (1) onset age was correlated with offending
involvement; and (2) the correlation could be explained by stable individual differences in the propensity to offend rather
than a causal effect of early onset age. In this study, similar analytic methods are applied to data from the Second Philadelphia
Birth Cohort. This data set consists of all 13,160 males born in Philadelphia in 1958 who resided in the city continuously
from ages 10 to 18, slightly more than half of whom were non-white. Information from each of the youths was collected from
schools, juvenile justice agencies, other official sources and surveys. In a model that mimics previous analyses, we initially
found that an early age of onset is associated with greater subsequent involvement in delinquent behavior. When unobserved
criminal propensity was controlled, however, we found that a late rather than an early onset of delinquency was related to
future offending. In finding a state dependent effect for age of onset, our findings are contrary to propensity theory in
criminology. In finding that it is late rather early onset which puts youth at risk for future offending, our findings are
contrary to developmental/life course theory. Our results are more compatible with traditional criminological theory that
is friendly to state dependence processes, though they too have not to date articulated why a late onsetting of offending
might be particularly criminogenic.
Sarah Bacon is an Assistant Professor in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. Her research interests focus on quantitative methods, testing criminological theory, and capital punishment. This paper is an extension of work conducted for her M.A. thesis at the University of Maryland. Raymond Paternoster is Professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland and Faculty Affiliate of the Maryland Population Research Center, College Park, Maryland. He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. His research interests focus on testing criminological theory, the relationship between events in adolescence and delinquency, and capital punishment. Robert Brame is Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. His current research interests focus on domestic violence, the use of criminal records for screening purposes, linkages between adolescent employment and criminal behavior, and capital punishment. 相似文献
Raymond PaternosterEmail: |
Sarah Bacon is an Assistant Professor in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. Her research interests focus on quantitative methods, testing criminological theory, and capital punishment. This paper is an extension of work conducted for her M.A. thesis at the University of Maryland. Raymond Paternoster is Professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland and Faculty Affiliate of the Maryland Population Research Center, College Park, Maryland. He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. His research interests focus on testing criminological theory, the relationship between events in adolescence and delinquency, and capital punishment. Robert Brame is Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. His current research interests focus on domestic violence, the use of criminal records for screening purposes, linkages between adolescent employment and criminal behavior, and capital punishment. 相似文献
24.
Raymond B. Firehock John A. Gentry Julia W. Rogers James M. Simon Jr 《Intelligence & National Security》2018,33(5):774-783
The literature on intelligence analysis contains many references to the ‘review process’, the mechanism by which analysts’ drafts are converted into corporate products. Analysts whose drafts consistently navigate the process quickly and smoothly are regarded as star performers. Divining the practical meaning of organizational definitions of ‘good’ analysis and the personal preferences of specific senior reviewers is not easy, however. Analysts occasionally commit their understanding of reviewers’ stylistic preferences to paper, effectively providing style guides to help others. This essay presents and explains the development and implications of one such guide, which was designed to help analysts in CIA’s Office of Strategic Research in the early 1970s. 相似文献
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Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Neighborhood and school socioeconomic “disadvantage” are consequential for youth violence perpetration. This study considers alternative ecological... 相似文献
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Raymond J. Struyk 《公共行政管理与发展》2007,27(1):63-83
While much of the implementation literature over the past several decades has recognised the importance of context (e.g. in issues of institutional culture, degree of hierarchy), little of the literature comparing the results of numerous program implementation experiences examines the experience of non‐Western contexts. This study seeks to partially fill this gap by applying the ‘conventional wisdom’ of implementation theory to program implementation experience in Russia. We analyse the implementation of 18 demonstration projects in Russia against 9 success factors identified in the implementation literature. Most of the pilots involved multiple cities; so there are a total of 48 city‐case observations to study. Overall, the findings are that the factors associated with successful program implementation among OECD countries are also those at work in Russia's transitional economy. The weights associated with the various factors may differ, however. One could imagine, for example, that political support counts for more in Russia than in the western local governments. One might also believe that opportunities for learning from other implementers could be more important in the West, where professional associations are more highly developed. The core finding of consistency should be valuable to administrators across transitional economies who can now refer to the rich findings of implementation research with greater confidence of its applicability to their programs. Perhaps equally important is the finding that some of the same factors predominantly associated with successful or troubled implementation in Russia have similar effects in implementation examples drawn from transition and developing nations; there are, however, some important differences. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
29.
In 2003 the policy development process in Bosnia and Herzegovina was characterised by international community (IC) dominance. The IC provided the vast majority of the analysis of problems facing the country and drafted many of the laws. This article documents developments from fall 2003 to fall 2006 in the use of evidence and analysis in the policy development process and the role of local policy research organisations (PROs—often called think tanks) in it. The likely relation between these changes and the activities of a PRO mentoring project that operated over the same period is also assessed. Evidence comes as a series of interviews in both years with government officials and members of parliament, on the one hand, and leaders of PROs and advocacy NGOs on the other. The broad picture that emerges from the above review is of a substantial positive development in the policy development process in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period. Factual evidence and analysis are playing a much greater role, and PROs have been a major provider of this information. The evidence indicates that PROs have been successful in convincing the policy community that they are purveyors of objective, disinterested advice and analysis. The improvements occurred in a conducive environment that steadily placed greater responsibility for policy formation on Bosnian officials. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
Voter turnout in the United States is much lower than in almost all other democratic countries. This has been interpreted as a symptom of popular alienation from the political system, suspicion of politicians, and pessimism about the consequences of political activity. When these perspectives are measured directly, however, it is clear that Americans score very low on almost every item. Indeed, there is no relationship between political con- tentment and turnout. Turnout does not reflect international variations in acceptance of politicians or the political system. Rather, it responds to variations in the bureaucratic steps required to cast a ballot. The United States is one of a handful of countries that require a separate step–registra- tion–before the citizen can vote; and with the partial exception of France it is the only country in which the individual rather than the state bears the responsibility for registration. 相似文献