B. Reviews: general

i. SHADOWS ON THE SAND: THE MEMOIRS OP SIR GAWAIN BELL. By (SIR) GAWAIN BELL. London, C.Hurst/New York, St Martins, 1983. pp.xiv, 258, 2 maps and index. El3.50.

ii. THE SUDAN MEMOIRS OF CARL CHRISTIAN GIEGLER PASHA. Edited by RICHARD HILL. Translated from the German by THIRZA KÜPPER. With a foreword by the Pasha's great‐granddaughter, HEIDI GROHA. Oxford, Oxford University Press (for the British Academy), pp. xxxii, 231, 3 maps, 12 plates. £18.00.

iii. EGYPT IN THE REIGN OF MUHAMMAD ALI. By AFAF LUTFI AL‐SAYYID MARSOT. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1984. pp.x, 300. £25.00.

iv. URBAN NOTABLES AND ARAB NATIONALISM: THE POLITICS OF DAMASCUS. By PHILIP S. KHOURY. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.153, 2 maps.

v. VICTIMS OF A MAP. Translated by ABDULLAH AL‐UDHARI. London, Al‐Saqi Books, 1984. pp.165. £4.95.

vi. PALESTINE AND MODERN ARAB POETRY. By KHALID A. SULAIMAN. London, Zed Books Ltd., 1984. pp.240. £6.95.

vii. L'ARABIE DU SUD: HISTOIRE ET CIVILISATION. By JOSEPH CHELHOD and others. Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.264. 21 illustrations, maps, tables. FF 94.

viii. THE TWO YEMENS. By ROBIN BIDWELL. Harlow (UK), Longman/Boulder (USA), Westview. 1983. pp.350.

ix. BAHRAIN AND THE GULF: PAST PERSPECTIVES AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES. Edited by JEFFREY B. NUGENT and THEODORE H. THOMAS. London, Croom Helm, 1985. pp.221, 26 tables, 4 figs., bibliography. £16.95.

x. THE ARABS. New Edition. By PETER MANSFIELD. Harmondsworth, Penguin, 1985. pp.510, map, index. £4.95/$6.95.

xi. THE EVOLUTION OF MIDDLE EASTERN LANDSCAPES: AN OUTLINE TO AD 1840. By J.M. WAGSTAFF. London, Croom Helm, 1983. pp.304, 459 maps and figs., 5 tables.

xii. THE GREEK MINORITY OF ISTANBUL AND GREEK‐TURKISH RELATIONS 1918–1974. By ALEXIS ALEXANDRIS. Athens, Centre for Asia Minor Studies, 1983.

xiii. SEX AND SOCIETY IN ISLAM: BIRTH CONTROL BEFORE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY. By B.F.MUSALLAM. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilizations). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.ix, 176. £17.50.

xiv. TOWARDS A JUST MONETARY SYSTEM. By MUHAMMAD U. CHAPRA. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.292. £10.00 (hardback); £4.75 (paperback).

xv. INSURANCE IN AN ISLAMIC ECONOMY. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. £5.50 (hardback); £2.00 (paperback).

xvi. PARTNERSHIP AND PROFIT SHARING IN ISLAMIC LAW. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.111. £6.50 (hardback); £2.25 (paperback).

xvii. THE IMMORTAL ATATURK: A PSYCHOBIOGRAPHY. By VAMIK D. VOLKAN and NORMAN ITZKOWITZ. Chicago‐London, Chicago University Press, 1984. pp.xxv, 374. £34.50.

xviii. TURKEY. MERI REPORT. Compiled by MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH INSTITUTE. London, Croom Helm, 198 3. pp.181. £35.00

xix. BORDER AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES. Edited by ALAN J.DAY. (A Keesing's Reference Publication). Harlow, Longman, 1982. pp.406, 44 maps. £45.00

xx. ‘IF ONLY MY PEOPLE...’ By IMMANUEL JAKOBOVITS. London, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1984. pp.288.

xxi. L'IMPRIMERIE ARABE EN OCCIDENT (XVIe, XVIIe XVIIIe SIÈCLES). By JOSÉE BALAGNA. (Islam & Occident, 2.) Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.153. 68F.     

B. Reviews

THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF ARABIC LITERATURE. Volume 1: Arabic Literature to the End of the Unayyad Period. Edited by A.F.L. Beeston, T.M.Johnstone, R.B.Serjeant and G.R.Smith, pp.xvi, 547. Cambridge University Press, 1983. £37.95.

AL‐MAQRIZI'S “BOOK OF CONTENTION AND STRIFE CONCERNING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE BANU UMAYYA AND THE BANU HASHIM”. Translated into English, with an introduction and commentary by C.E.Bosworth. (Journal of Semitic Studies, Monograph No.3), Manchester, Department of Near Eastern Studies, University of Manchester, 1980. pp.157.

ARABIC CULTURE THROUGH ITS LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Kegan Paul International, 1984. pp.371, 51, plates, maps.

ARABIC LINGUISTICS: AN INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Mansell, 1983. pp.742.

LA RELATION DE THOMAS PELLOW: UNE LECTURE DU MAROC AU 18^e SIÈCLE. By Magali Morsy. (Synthèse No.12), Paris, Editions Recherche sur les Civilisations, 1983. pp.254, 17pl. FF.129.

ESPANA Y EL NORTE DE AFRICA: EL PROTECTORADO DE MARRUECOS (1912–56). By Victor Morales Lezcano. Madrid, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, 1984. pp.249. Photos., maps, diagrams. 600.00 ptas.

EGYPT AND THE PALESTINE QUESTION 1936–1945. By Thomas Mayer. Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 1983. pp.391 (paperback).

SUDAN. By M.W.Daly. (World Bibliographical Series, Vol.40.) Oxford (UK) & Santa Barbara (USA), Clio Press, 1983. pp.xvi, 176, 1 map. £19.50.

THE OTHER FACE OF OPEC: FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD. ENERGY RESOURCES AND POLICIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA. By Ibrahim F.I. Shihata. London, Longman, 1982. pp.281 (paperback).

DEVELOPING EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN THE OIL STATES OF ARABIA: CONFLICTS OF PURPOSE AND FOCUS. By J.S.Birks and J.A.Rimmer. (Occasional Papers Series, No.21: Manpower and Migration Series, no.3). University of Durham, Centre for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 1984. pp.33. E2.50.

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL GUIDE TO IRAN: THE MIDDLE EAST LIBRARY COMMITTEE GUIDE. Edited by L.P.Elwell‐Sutton. Sussex, The Harvester Press/New Jersey, Barnes & Noble Books, 1984. pp.462.

ARABISCHE UND PERSISCHE PRIVATURKUNDEN DES 12. UND 13. JAHRHUNDERTS AUS ARDABIL (ASERBEIDSCHAN). By Monika Gronke. (Islamkundliche Untersuchungen, Bd 72), Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 182. pp.555.

MYSTICISM AND DISSENT: SOCIORELIGIOUS THOUGHT IN QAJAR IRAN. By Mangol Bayat. Syracuse, N.Y., Syracuse U.P., 1982. pp.xvii, 228. $25.00.

SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION AND POPULAR RESISTANCE IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE 1881–1908: REACTIONS TO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC PENETRATION. By Donald Quataert. New York, Columbia U.P., 1983. pp.xxii, 205. $45.50.     

Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.