Bias in the formulation of local government budget problems

Government budgets are premised on forecasts of revenues and expenditures. These forecasts are subject to both stochastic error and strategic manipulation. Circumstantial evidence in the budgeting literature and in the popular media suggest that government officials routinely bias the forecasts underlying budgets. The research reported here asked three primary questions: To what extent are budget forecasts systematically biased? Why? (Are fiscal and electoral variables systematically related to the magnitude and direction of the biases?) What political and ethical difference do the biases make? From the literature and an analysis of the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, we developed hypotheses about budget biases. These hypotheses were tested using time series data for the City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (1941–1983); the City of San Diego, California (1950–1982); and the Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) School District (1946–1983). In these locales over the periods examined, budgets were systematically pessimistic; revenues were underestimated and expenditures were overestimated. The fiscal and electoral factors hypothesized to account for this pessimism are, however, very mixed in their ability to explain the biases.     

测定血痕MN型的血清制备

用免疫吸收方法制备的抗-M与抗-N血清,检测10天内的不相应的MN血型血痕和大约2年的相应MN型血痕,凡能获得特异性结果的抗血清才能用于血痕的MN血痕测定。否则,只能用于测定血液的MN血型。     

Do introductory criminology textbooks cite the most influential criminologists? Estimating the “match” between what journals report and what textbooks discuss

Using recent citation analyses of criminology journals and textbooks to estimate the “match” between what journals report and what textbooks discuss. Twentythree criminology textbooks published from 1989 to 1993 were ranked by how prominently they cite the 25 most-cited scholars in recent leading criminology journals. I suggest some reasons why criminology textbook authors extensively cite and discuss some influential scholars but not others, and conclude by noting several limitations to using citation analysis to estimate the match between journals and textbooks.     

A theoretical basis for participatory planning

Arguments are presented for the reconsideration of models which guide planning behavior and structure planning organizations. Hierarchical organizations are contrasted with reticular organizations and the latter are presented as necessary for effective citizen participation. Legitimacy is presented as a fundamental basis of justifying planning action and historical shifts in forms of legitimacy are noted. Participation, as a form of legitimacy, and several aspects of participatory planning are discussed in terms of recent systems thinking. It is argued that participatory planning increases the effectiveness and adaptivity of the planning process and contributes adaptivity and stability to the societal system. Further, it is argued that citizen participation is an essential element in making the planning process a learning system. This leads to a strengthening of the definition and role of communities in the urban system, and to an unexpected requirement of planners who would adopt a participatory planning process.     

An evolving technology-transfer system in an R&D consortium: The EPRI approach

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is a consortium of utility companies whose existence depends on member perceptions that valuable technologies and information have been developed and transferred. This paper outlines eight issues that EPRI, after 17 years of operation had determined to be critical in transferring technology: [1] establishing a perception of value received, [2] creating a sense of full partnership, [3] balancing the R&D portfolio with projects for different members, [4] packaging results for easy understanding and use, [5] reducing information overload by using targeted media, [6] assuring that members have the needed infrastructure to receive and process transfer, [7] integrating EPRI's R&D program with those of the members, and [8] monitoring impact to be sure that value is being received.