Forecasts of Violence to Inform Sentencing Decisions

Objectives

Recent legislation in Pennsylvania mandates that forecasts of "future dangerousness" be provided to judges when sentences are given. Similar requirements already exist in other jurisdictions. Research has shown that machine learning can lead to usefully accurate forecasts of criminal behavior in such setting. But there are settings in which there is insufficient IT infrastructure to support machine learning. The intent of this paper is provide a prototype procedure for making forecasts of future dangerousness that could be used to inform sentencing decisions when machine learning is not practical. We consider how classification trees can be improved so that they may provide an acceptable second choice.

Methods

We apply an version of classifications trees available in R, with some technical enhancements to improve tree stability. Our approach is illustrated with real data that could be used to inform sentencing decisions.

Results

Modest sized trees grown from large samples can forecast well and in a stable fashion, especially if the small fraction of indecisive classifications are found and accounted for in a systematic manner. But machine learning is still to be preferred when practical.

Conclusions

Our enhanced version of classifications trees may well provide a viable alternative to machine learning when machine learning is beyond local IT capabilities.     

Regimes of Cooperation in the Western Hemisphere: Power, Interests, and Intellectual Traditions

The 1994 Summit of the Americas marked a high point in hemispherism—our label for the active attempt by the nations of the Western Hemisphere to form regimes of cooperation with one another. To explain why hemispherism has not been a more powerful trend in the last 200 years, structural, interest, and cultural variables are relevant but insufficient factors. An important and often overlooked obstacle to hemispherism has beencontrarian ideas. Specifically, constellations of intellectual traditions that question the value of hemispheric cooperation have dampened both the demand for and supply of such regimes. Only when these antihemispheric intellectual traditions were in retreat—the late nineteenth century, the mid twentieth century, and the early 1990s—has hemispherism flourished. We posit three mechanisms through which intellectual traditions can decline, thus generating amodified cognitivist argument that can supplement power-based and interest-based explanations of regime formation and robustness.     

邓小平解决西南民族问题的思想

文章简要阐述了邓小平在主持西南局工作期间,面对西南的民族问题,提出并实践成功的解决西南民族问题的办法及措施。     

建国以来贵州少数民族地区农村土地制度变迁及其历史意义

新中国成立以来,贵州少数民族地区农村土地制度经历了农有农用、农有公用、公有公用、公有农用的变革历程。本文从历史的角度,旨在分析贵州少数民族地区农地制度的历次变革及意义,指出土地制度建设中存在的主要问题,以期为完善贵州农地制度提供必要的参考。     

贵州文化浅论

文章对贵州文化的定义、外延、内涵、特征文化价值等作了简要的论述,并认为贵州文化、贵州文化资源在发展贵州就、发展贵州文化产业、文化商品方面,在社会、经济、文化三者协调发展方面,具有无比的文化价值和广阔的前景。     

藏传佛教"羌姆"面具艺术探秘

文章对藏传佛教"羌姆"跳神面具的缘起、发展源流、种类型制、表现的内容与象征内涵、审美寄托、艺术特色、制作的形式美等作了较全面的探讨.     

The Legal and Social Construction of Value in Government Procurement Markets

The Public Services (Social Value) Act 2012 introduces a social value duty. It requires public authorities in England and Wales that are carrying out procurement activities to ‘consider’ how such activities might ‘improve … economic, social and environmental well-being’. This article analyses qualitative, empirical data on how the social value duty has been interpreted and applied across local government in England. Although only a weak legal duty, this law has made a notable impact on practice. The article explains the changes brought about in practice under the social value duty and seeks to understand why these changes have occurred. It does so by recognizing local government procurement markets, as well as local government organizations themselves, as strategic action fields. In these fields, there are competing visions for social value. It is through conversations between actors that a common meaning comes to be attached to the law.