The problem of the straits

Siberian Development and East Asia. Threat or Promise? By Allen S. Whiting. Stanford University Press, Stanford, California. 1981. Pp. 276. Index, notes, maps. Price $22.50 (hardback).     

Causes of the Slowdown in Soviet Defense

This paper discusses the recent official U.S. intelligence estimates indicating a slowdown in the growth rates of Soviet defense spending and military procurement since 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency's explanation for the slowdown is examined. Questions are raised about two of the factors, economic constraints and technical difficulties, and the implications of the CIA's explanation for theories about the relationship of the defense sector to the rest of the economy are considered. The author offers as a possible alternative explanation of the slowdown a change in Soviet military investment priorities de-emphasizing strategic offensive weapons. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.     

Books to review

Abstract

Taken together, these four books provide an intriguing narrative, not just of the significance of gender in social transformation in India, but also of the variety of ways this has been studied and conceived. They are, in many ways, remarkably diverse.     

‘A Conquerable Yet Resilient Foe’: British Perceptions of the Imperial Japanese Army's Tactics on the India-Burma Front,September 1942 to Summer 1944

Britain's ability to discard its image of the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) as an invincible enemy during the Burma campaign hinged upon two key factors. First, accurate assessments of the appropriate means to overcome the IJA not only hinged upon reliable intelligence, but of greater importance, the level of experience which the British-Indian army had in engaging its opponent. Second, the uncertainty was compounded by concerns arising from the IJA's ability to inflict considerable delays and casualties on its Allies counterparts, in spite of its shortage of modern weapons and lack of adequate training in their use. Apprehensions could not be lifted until Allied forces had proven themselves capable of conducting operations against the Japanese without incurring excessive losses. The Fourteenth Army's victories at Imphal and Kohima in June 1944 did not discredit the IJA's ability to pose a difficult challenge. The only reassurance which field commanders could draw was that their own forces had developed the skills necessary to undertake their quest to dislodge the IJA from its positions in Burma.     

Transforming Analysis: The Intelligence Community's Best Kept Secret

This article argues that analytic practices and processes within the US intelligence community have undergone far more fundamental reform than the public or scholarly communities recognize. It identifies the dimensions of this ‘Analytic Transformation’ and explains the reasons for optimism about the future.