Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict

In this study we resolve part of the confusion over how foreign aid affects armed conflict. We argue that aid shocks—severe decreases in aid revenues—inadvertently shift the domestic balance of power and potentially induce violence. During aid shocks, potential rebels gain bargaining strength vis‐à‐vis the government. To appease the rebels, the government must promise future resource transfers, but the government has no incentive to continue its promised transfers if the aid shock proves to be temporary. With the government unable to credibly commit to future resource transfers, violence breaks out. Using AidData's comprehensive dataset of bilateral and multilateral aid from 1981 to 2005, we evaluate the effects of foreign aid on violent armed conflict. In addition to rare‐event logit analysis, we employ matching methods to account for the possibility that aid donors anticipate conflict. The results show that negative aid shocks significantly increase the probability of armed conflict onset.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

Specifying Type and Location of Peer Victimization in a National Sample of Children and Youth

Much of the existing research on the prevalence and consequences of peer victimization focuses on “bullying” at school, often omitting from consideration non-bullying types of peer victimization as well as events that occur outside of school. The purpose of this study was to examine past-year exposure to peer-perpetrated victimization, occurring both within and outside of school contexts, among school-aged children in the United States. The study is based on a representative sample of 2,999 youth ages 6–17 (50% female; 45% non-white) from the 2008 National Survey of Children’s Exposure to Violence (NatSCEV). Findings revealed age, gender, race, and family structure variations in many forms of peer victimization and demonstrated significant independent and cumulative effects of six different types of peer victimization (physical assault, physical intimidation, emotional victimization, sexual victimization, property crime, and internet harassment) on trauma symptoms. Findings also showed that, although victimization at school is substantial, a considerable proportion of peer victimizations occur away from school contexts. The findings highlight the importance of comprehensive measurement of multiple forms of peer victimization that occur both at school and elsewhere, rather than focusing exclusively on traditional measures of school-focused bullying.     

Pubertal Development Moderates the Importance of Environmental Influences on Depressive Symptoms in Adolescent Girls and Boys

Prevalence differences in depressive symptoms between the sexes typically emerge in adolescence, with symptoms more prevalent among girls. Some evidence suggests that variation in onset and progression of puberty might contribute to these differences. This study used a genetically informative, longitudinal (assessed at ages 12, 14, and 17) sample of Finnish adolescent twins (N = 1214, 51.6% female) to test whether etiological influences on depressive symptoms differ as a function of pubertal status. These tests were conducted separately by sex, and explored longitudinal relationships. Results indicated that pubertal development moderates environmental influences on depressive symptoms. These factors are more important on age 14 depressive symptoms among more developed girls relative to their less developed peers, but decrease in influence on age 17 depressive symptoms. The same effects are observed in boys, but are delayed, paralleling the delay in pubertal development in boys compared to girls. Thus, the importance of environmental influences on depressive symptoms during adolescence changes as a function of pubertal development, and the timing of this effect differs across the sexes.     

The dialectical psychoeducational workshop (DPEW) for males at risk for intimate partner violence: a pilot randomized controlled trial

Data are presented from a pilot study that tested the initial effectiveness of the Dialectical Psychoeducational Workshop (DPEW) in reducing the potential risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). A randomized controlled trial (RCT) of an experimental intervention (DPEW), and a control condition, the first session of an eight-week anger management program (AMW), was employed. Differences between experimental and control groups were analyzed by chi-square and t tests. Self-report questionnaires were administered pre- and post-test to 55 study participants. The questionnaire was comprised of standardized measures and highly-structured questions. Quantitative analyses provided strong preliminary support for the DPEW’s effectiveness in lowering a participant’s desire to express anger physically, while decreasing the potential risk for physical violence. This pilot study demonstrated promising initial support for the DPEW as an alternative, preventative intervention for males at risk for intimate partner violence. Its strong preliminary results provide evidence for a larger RCT. The study’s results are limited by a reliance on self-report measures, the brevity of the intervention, and a small sample size.