Inferring Transition Probabilities from Repeated Cross Sections

This paper discusses a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov modeldesigned to estimate entry and exit transition probabilitiesat the micro level from a time series of independent cross-sectionalsamples with a binary outcome variable. The model has its originsin the work of Moffitt and shares features with standard statisticalmethods for ecological inference. We outline the methodologicalframework proposed by Moffitt and present several extensionsof the model to increase its potential application in a widerarray of research contexts. We also discuss the relationshipwith previous lines of related research in political science.The example illustration uses survey data on American presidentialvote intentions from a five-wave panel study conducted by Pattersonin 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sectionsand compare the estimates of the Markov model with both dynamicpanel parameter estimates and the actual observations in thepanel. The results suggest that the proposed model providesa useful framework for the analysis of transitions in repeatedcross sections. Open problems requiring further study are discussed.     

The Renewal of Social Democracy? The Rann Labor Government (2002–11)

Labour governments around the world are struggling to renew labour and social democratic values in the modern era. The South Australian Labor government, led by Mike Rann (2002–11), presents a striking case of a labour government that pursued a renewal of social democracy. By offering a critical examination of the ideological contours of the Rann Government, this paper contributes to wider debates about the flux of social democracy. In Australia, debates about Labor's identity tend to focus on the federal rather than state level, which this article seeks, in part, to redress. The Rann government's economic and social inclusion policies are examined and compared with its South Australian historical forebears, and the Rann government is located within the various labour “traditions”.     

The Presumption of Innocence and its Role in the Criminal Process

Many international instruments proclaim that those who face criminal prosecution ought to be afforded a ‘presumption of innocence’, and the importance and central role of this presumption is recognized by legal systems throughout the world. There is, however, little agreement about its meaning and extent of application. This article considers the purposes of legal presumptions in general and explores various, sometimes contradictory, conceptions of this most famous one. It is equated by many scholars to the requirement that the prosecution prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. As such, it is merely a rule of evidence (albeit an important one), with no application pre- or post-trial. The article advocates adoption of a broader, normative approach, namely that the presumption reflects the relationship which ought to exist between citizen and State when a citizen is suspected of breaching the criminal law. As such, it should be promoted as a practical attitude to be adopted by the key protagonists in the justice system, for the duration of the criminal process.     

Building NESTs to combat environmental crime networks

This article begins by providing a brief overview of environmental crime in the Asia and Pacific, highlighting its complexity, varying dimensions and transnational nature. It acknowledges the difficulties in responding to organised criminal groups that operate with flexible modus operandi to commit such crimes. The paper then discusses the importance of the National Environmental Security Taskforce approach, a model developed by INTERPOL to tackle environmental crimes. Collaboration and cooperation, within and between government and non-government organisations, are conceptualised as having a possibly positive ‘panopticon effect’ that has implications for responding to both organised criminal networks and state corruption in this domain.     

The Big Society in Australia: A Case of ‘Non’‐Policy Transfer?

The Big Society was a flagship policy initiative launched by the UK Conservative party, under the leadership of David Cameron, to win office in 2010. Closely associated with the ideas of Phillip Blond, the Big Society agenda seeks to introduce new forms of civic activism and revive wider civil society. There has been speculation that the Big Society agenda might take hold in Australia, and Blond has been active in promoting it in Australia. Using Dolowitz and Marsh's policy transfer heuristic, this article examines the likelihood of the Big Society being adopted by the Abbott Liberal Coalition. The article outlines a number of potential variants of the Big Society, and concludes that for a variety of reasons it is unlikely to be adopted by the Liberal federal government in Australia. The case also highlights both strengths and limitations in the Dolowitz and Marsh framework, arguing that it can be used in an innovative way to speculate on potential transfers, but is limited in accounting for why transfer may or may not take place.     

Validation of the barcoding gene COI for use in forensic genetic species identification

The application of forensics to wildlife crime investigation routinely involves genetic species identification based on DNA sequence similarity. This work can be hindered by a lack of authenticated reference DNA sequence data resulting in weak matches between evidence and reference samples. The introduction of DNA barcoding has highlighted the expanding use of the mtDNA gene, cytochrome c oxidase I (COI), as a genetic marker for species identification. Here, we assess the COI gene for use in forensic analysis following published human validation guidelines. Validation experiments investigated reproducibility, heteroplasmy, mixed DNA, DNA template concentration, chemical treatments, substrate variation, environmental conditions and thermocycling parameters. Sequence similarity searches using both GenBank BLASTn and BOLD search engines indicated that the COI gene consistently identifies species where authenticated reference sequence data exists. Where misidentification occurred the cause was attributable to either erroneous reference sequences from published data, or lack of primer specificity. Although amplification failure was observed under certain sample treatments, there was no evidence of environmentally induced sequence mutation in those sequences that were generated. A simulated case study compared the performance of COI and cytochrome b mtDNA genes. Findings are discussed in relation to the utility of the COI gene in forensic species identification.     

Legal professionals’ knowledge and experience of autistic adults in the family justice system

Abstract

Access to justice is a key theme in the family justice system, especially for those with particular vulnerabilities. Autism, a development condition characterised by difficulties in social communication and interaction, and the presence of rigid, repetitive behaviours, presents particular challenges in this area. This paper reports the findings of a mixed-methods study with legal professionals working in the family justice system, asking about their knowledge of autism, their perceived self-efficacy when working with autistic clients, and their experience of cases involving autistic litigants. The study reports high levels of knowledge, but low levels of confidence, by legal professionals (N = 204), and addresses the experiences of particular cases in follow-up discussions (N = 10). The paper concludes by making a series of recommendations for legal professionals to assist autistic people to engage fully in family court proceedings.