Equilibria and Restoring Forces in Models of Vote Dynamics

e-mail: mdmcd{at}binghamton.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: rbest1{at}gmail.com Theories of voting tell us that party vote dynamics have twocore components, long-run equilibria and more or less rapidreturns to equilibria after short-run deviations. Statisticalmodels used to represent these theories, however, tend to emphasizeone component or the other. The unbalanced emphasis leaves thetheoretical ideas underspecified and produces biased estimatesof both long- and short-run components of vote dynamics. Wespecify the two components in the familiar form of an errorcorrection model and demonstrate its advantages in terms ofits theoretical consistency, simplicity, and precise predictionof whether something is wrong. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying it to two sets of analyses reported in the literatureand showing that it usually changes the conclusions reportedin regard to both the equilibrium levels of party competitionand the strength of restoring forces.     

Public resistance to privatisation in water and energy

Since the 1990s, development agencies and international institutions have promoted private-sector involvement in infrastructure, assuming that this would inject both investment and efficiency into the under-performing public sector. In the water and energy sectors, these expectations have not been fulfilled. Private-sector investment in developing countries is falling, multinational companies have failed to make sustainable returns on their investments, and the process of privatisation in water and energy has proved widely unpopular and encountered strong political opposition. This paper examines the role of this opposition in delaying, cancelling, or reversing the privatisation of water and energy. Local civil society has successfully mobilised highly effective political activity, its opposition being based on the perceived conflicts between privatisation and equity, and over the role of the state and community in these sectors. Such opposition has involved dynamic interactions with existing political parties and structures, including the use of existing electoral and judicial mechanisms. Its success poses challenges for the multilateral and donor community, NGOs, the opposition campaigns themselves, and the future of national systems of electricity and water.     

Victims With Voices: How Abused Women Conceptualize the Problem of Spousal Abuse and Implications for Intervention and Prevention

Working from the conceptualization of abused women as both victims of and experts on spousal abuse, this study compares how women who have been abused, and how men and women with either less direct or no experience with spousal abuse, understand the problem and their beliefs about how it should be addressed. Results of a telephone survey of Philadelphia adults (N = 1,850) indicate that although in many ways abused women's opinions regarding domestic violence do not differ from those of nonabused women, abused women are more likely to believe that society gives tacit consent to abusive behavior through its silence and that talking openly about the problem will make it easier to solve. These findings suggest that initiatives aimed at changing the social norm around domestic violence may assist in both intervention and prevention efforts.     

Investigators and Prosecutors or, Desperately Seeking Scotland: Re-formulation of the 'Philips Principle'

Prosecution in England and Wales, traditionally private, was captured by the 'new police', creating an 'English tradition' unlike those of the rest of the United Kingdom. To overcome consequent problems, the Royal Commission on Criminal Procedure recommended the 'Philips principle', whereby investigator and prosecutor were separate, but co-ordinate, on which basis the Crown Prosecution Service was set up. However, the principle was in fact compromised by the 'English tradition', most obviously by permitting continued police prosecution. Moreover, the Serious Fraud Office, set up shortly thereafter, contradicted the principle. Yet, HM Customs and Excise addressed its serious problems by applying the principle. The CPS itself encountered difficulties flowing from the compromises. Reports (Runciman, Narey, Glidewell) recommended various devices, straining the principle, until the Auld Report recognised that reformulation was necessary, along the lines adopted elsewhere in the United Kingdom, that is, by recognising that there should be investigator subordination to prosecutor.     

Book notes

Political Participation and Democracy in Britain by Geraint Parry, George Moyser and Neil Day. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. Pp.xviii + 510; index, bibliography, three appendices. £60 (hardback); £17.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 521 33298 2 and 33602 3

Work and Citizenship in the New Europe edited by Harry Coenen and Peter Leisink. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1993. Pp.254; index, bibliography. £38.50. ISBN 1 85278 739 2

Capitalist Development and Democracy by Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens and John D. Stephens. Cambridge and Oxford: Polity Press, 1992. Pp.387; index, bibliography, appendices. £45 (hardback); £14.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 7456 0398 X

Minority Representation and the Quest for Voting Equality by Bernard Grofman, Lisa Handley and Richard G. Niemi. Cambridge, London and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992. Pp.174; index, bibliography. £30. ISBN 0 521 39128 8

Peace, Politics and Violence in the New South Africa edited by Norman Etherington. London: Hans Zell Publishers, 1992. Pp.352; index. £45. ISBN 1 873836 75 6

The State in Africa: The Politics of the Belly by Jean‐François Bayart. London and New York: Longman, 1993. Pp.370; index. £14.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 582 06421 X

Russia in Flux: The Political and Social Consequences of Reform edited by David Lane. Aldershot: Gower, 1992. Pp.xvi + 248; index. £45 (hardback); £14.95 (paperback). ISBN 1 85278 680 9 and 713 9

Democracy and Development by Axel Hadenius. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. Pp.xi + 218; index, bibliography, appendices. £30. ISBN 0 521 41685 X

Power and Empowerment: A Radical Theory of Participatory Democracy by Peter Bachrach and Aryeh Botwinick. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press, 1992. Pp.ix + 211; index, bibliography. ISBN 0 87722 930 9

Democratization in Africa: African Views, African Voices edited by Sahr John Kpundeh. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1992. Pp.85. £17.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 309 04797 8

Marxism and Democracy by Joseph V. Femia. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993. Pp.204; index, bibliography. £25 (hardback). ISBN 0 19 827494 7

Dirty Politics: Deception, Distraction and Democracy by Kathleen Hall Jamieson. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. Pp.335; index, bibliography, appendices. $25 (hardback). ISBN 0 19 597854 3

Viva ‐ Women and Popular Protest in Latin America edited by Sarah A. Radcliffe and Sallie Westwood (International Studies of Women and Place Series). London and New York: Routledge, 1993. Pp.270; index, bibliography. £40 (hardback); £12.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 415 07312 X

Dimensions of Radical Democracy edited by Chantal Mouffe. London: Verso, 1992. Pp.254; bibliography. £12.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 86091 556 5

Democracy and Discontent: India's Growing Crisis of Governability by Atul Kohli. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Pp.420; index, bibliography. £35 (hardback). ISBN 0 521 39161 X     

Written records of police interrogation: differential registration as determinant of statement credibility and interrogation quality

Abstract

The backbone of Dutch criminal procedure is the case file including a large number of written records. In Dutch courts the focus is primarily on evaluation of written records. The written record of police interrogation is a mediated account of the interrogation itself. In this study we explore how individual differences in the production of written records by police officers affect the jurists' evaluation of the suspect's story and of the quality of the interrogation itself. In the first study, five police officers produced written records of one and the same interrogation on video of a denying suspect. In the second study, three of those written records are evaluated by jurists. They are asked to determine story acceptability of the suspect and procedural fairness of the interrogation. Findings show that a short and simple interrogation of a suspect results in written records that are quite different (Study I). It is further shown that these differences affect the jurists' evaluation of some of the core issues addressed in a criminal process (Study II). Implications of these findings are discussed as well as a number of possible ways to improve the current state of affairs.