Equilibria and Restoring Forces in Models of Vote Dynamics

e-mail: mdmcd{at}binghamton.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: rbest1{at}gmail.com Theories of voting tell us that party vote dynamics have twocore components, long-run equilibria and more or less rapidreturns to equilibria after short-run deviations. Statisticalmodels used to represent these theories, however, tend to emphasizeone component or the other. The unbalanced emphasis leaves thetheoretical ideas underspecified and produces biased estimatesof both long- and short-run components of vote dynamics. Wespecify the two components in the familiar form of an errorcorrection model and demonstrate its advantages in terms ofits theoretical consistency, simplicity, and precise predictionof whether something is wrong. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying it to two sets of analyses reported in the literatureand showing that it usually changes the conclusions reportedin regard to both the equilibrium levels of party competitionand the strength of restoring forces.     

Public resistance to privatisation in water and energy

Since the 1990s, development agencies and international institutions have promoted private-sector involvement in infrastructure, assuming that this would inject both investment and efficiency into the under-performing public sector. In the water and energy sectors, these expectations have not been fulfilled. Private-sector investment in developing countries is falling, multinational companies have failed to make sustainable returns on their investments, and the process of privatisation in water and energy has proved widely unpopular and encountered strong political opposition. This paper examines the role of this opposition in delaying, cancelling, or reversing the privatisation of water and energy. Local civil society has successfully mobilised highly effective political activity, its opposition being based on the perceived conflicts between privatisation and equity, and over the role of the state and community in these sectors. Such opposition has involved dynamic interactions with existing political parties and structures, including the use of existing electoral and judicial mechanisms. Its success poses challenges for the multilateral and donor community, NGOs, the opposition campaigns themselves, and the future of national systems of electricity and water.     

VISITATION AND DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

with increasing frequency, courts and legislatures are focusing attention on visitation disputes in which there are allegations of domestic violence. This article explores the requirements for a careful assessment of the domestic violence issues, theparenting capacities of the adults, and the coping skilk of the children. It then proposes a decision-tree model of access recommendations that incorporates the information gatheredfmm the evaluation procedures.     

Victims With Voices: How Abused Women Conceptualize the Problem of Spousal Abuse and Implications for Intervention and Prevention

Working from the conceptualization of abused women as both victims of and experts on spousal abuse, this study compares how women who have been abused, and how men and women with either less direct or no experience with spousal abuse, understand the problem and their beliefs about how it should be addressed. Results of a telephone survey of Philadelphia adults (N = 1,850) indicate that although in many ways abused women's opinions regarding domestic violence do not differ from those of nonabused women, abused women are more likely to believe that society gives tacit consent to abusive behavior through its silence and that talking openly about the problem will make it easier to solve. These findings suggest that initiatives aimed at changing the social norm around domestic violence may assist in both intervention and prevention efforts.     

Orphans,apprenticeships, and the world of work

This article explores a frequent and important practice in the ancien Régime society, namely, apprenticeship. The apprenticeship contracts of legitimate orphans (boys and girls) who were received in institutions that specialized in caring for them — such as the Trinité or the Saint-Esprit — provide the data for this study. By focusing on these two, it is possible to compare two groups of orphans, as well as differences in the intentions and accomplishments of the institutions in terms of offering instruction and preparation for the working world. This examination focuses on the transition from the institution to society. How did the orphans interpret this transition? And how did administrators perceive their roles? The example of the Trinité and the Saint-Esprit serves to rectify the common image of the hospitals as poor and highly imperfect in terms of education and apprenticeship. It shows that these were genuine training institutions for older children.