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Peter J. Roman 《安全研究》2013,22(4):121-164
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Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks. 相似文献
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Presently available possibilities of macro- and microscopic diagnosis of death from hypothermia are very limited as the changes observed are either weakly specific (ecchymoses in the mucous membrane of the stomach, histological features of haemorrhagic pancreatic necrosis, cardiomyocyte necrosis or decreased content of glycogen in hepatocytes) or represent only local action of low temperatures (frostbites, violet patches in the region of knees and elbows, red livores) and they may not be present in cases of death from cooling at environmental temperature close to zero or higher.The study evaluated the usefulness of acetoacetic acid (Ac-Ac), beta-hydroxybutyric acid (beta-HBA) and acetone determinations in blood, urine and vitreous humour for diagnosis of death from hypothermia. These three substances called ketone bodies, are easily assimilated energetic substrates that get oxidized preferentially before glucose and fatty acids. In hypoglycaemia (also hypothermia-induced one), the tissues dependent on glucose (e.g. the brain) cover most of their energetic needs from oxidation of these compounds.The analysis of 16 cases of death in circumstances suggesting hypothermia (mainly of the alcohol abusers) showed that the degree of ketosis was inversely proportional to the blood ethanol concentration. This relation may result from stimulation of insulin release and a decrease in the release of its antagonists by ethanol, as well as from inhibition of free fatty acid (FFA) beta-oxidation due to increase in the NADH/NAD ratio. So, the antiketonaemic effects of ethanol (together with its influence on the dilatation of the peripheral vessels and inhibition of shivering thermogenesis by muscle relaxation), explain increased sensitivity of intoxicated persons to low temperatures. 相似文献
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This paper asks whether undertaking a cost-benefit analysis provides additional information to policy makers as compared to
an analysis solely of the effect of an intervention. A literature review identified 106 evaluations of criminal justice interventions
that reported both an effect size and measures of net benefit. Data on net benefit and effect size were extracted from these
studies. We found that effect size is only weakly related to net benefits. The rank order of net benefits and effect size
are minimally correlated. Furthermore, we found that the two analytic methods would yield opposing policy recommendations
for more than one in four interventions. These bi-variate findings are supported by the results of multivariate models. However,
further research is needed to verify the accuracy of the standard errors on net benefit estimates, so these models must be
interpreted with caution.
Kevin Marsh is head of Economics at The Matrix Knowledge Group (TMKG). His research interests include the economic evaluation of criminal justice and public health interventions. He completed his PhD in Economics at the University of Bath, specialising in monetary technique for valuing environmental resources. Following a year at the Social Disadvantage Research Centre, Oxford University, Marsh joined TMKG in 2003. At Matrix he is responsible for maintaining the quality of economic and statistical methods, advising on a range of projects across the crime and justice and health sectors. He has recently undertaken research in a number of areas of public policy, including: prisons, promoting physical activity, drug trafficking, reducing drug use among both adult and juvenile populations, human trafficking, reducing health inequalities, reducing social exclusion, and area-based regeneration. Aaron Chalfin is a Research Associate in the Urban Institute’s Justice Policy Center, where his research focuses on evaluations of criminal justice programs, cost-benefit analysis and the economic and social determinants of criminal activity. He has used statistical methods to evaluate programs designed to reduce recidivism and improve labor market outcomes and has developed full-information economic models to estimate social costs and benefits. His current research includes studies of individual and neighborhood characteristics that predict fear of crime and methodological issues in cost-benefit analysis. John Roman is a Senior Research Associate at the Justice Policy Center at the Urban Institute where his research focuses on evaluations of innovative crime control policies and programs. Roman is directing studies of the demand for community-based interventions with drug-involved arrestees, the use of DNA in burglary investigations, the reclaiming futures initiative and the cost of the death penalty. His prior research includes studies of specialized courts, the age of juvenile jurisdiction, prisoner reentry and cost-benefit methodology. He is the co-editor of Juvenile Drug Courts and Teen Substance Abuse and a forthcoming volume on Cost-Benefit Analysis and Crime Control Policies. 相似文献
Kevin MarshEmail: |
Kevin Marsh is head of Economics at The Matrix Knowledge Group (TMKG). His research interests include the economic evaluation of criminal justice and public health interventions. He completed his PhD in Economics at the University of Bath, specialising in monetary technique for valuing environmental resources. Following a year at the Social Disadvantage Research Centre, Oxford University, Marsh joined TMKG in 2003. At Matrix he is responsible for maintaining the quality of economic and statistical methods, advising on a range of projects across the crime and justice and health sectors. He has recently undertaken research in a number of areas of public policy, including: prisons, promoting physical activity, drug trafficking, reducing drug use among both adult and juvenile populations, human trafficking, reducing health inequalities, reducing social exclusion, and area-based regeneration. Aaron Chalfin is a Research Associate in the Urban Institute’s Justice Policy Center, where his research focuses on evaluations of criminal justice programs, cost-benefit analysis and the economic and social determinants of criminal activity. He has used statistical methods to evaluate programs designed to reduce recidivism and improve labor market outcomes and has developed full-information economic models to estimate social costs and benefits. His current research includes studies of individual and neighborhood characteristics that predict fear of crime and methodological issues in cost-benefit analysis. John Roman is a Senior Research Associate at the Justice Policy Center at the Urban Institute where his research focuses on evaluations of innovative crime control policies and programs. Roman is directing studies of the demand for community-based interventions with drug-involved arrestees, the use of DNA in burglary investigations, the reclaiming futures initiative and the cost of the death penalty. His prior research includes studies of specialized courts, the age of juvenile jurisdiction, prisoner reentry and cost-benefit methodology. He is the co-editor of Juvenile Drug Courts and Teen Substance Abuse and a forthcoming volume on Cost-Benefit Analysis and Crime Control Policies. 相似文献
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As part of the “better regulation” agenda, the European Commission created a semi-independent institution, the Regulatory Scrutiny Board, to monitor the preparation of policy proposals. The position of this Board is potentially wide-ranging. A proposal that is not given the green light by it cannot proceed in the Commission's internal decisionmaking process. But so far, the Board has only received scant scholarly attention. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Regulatory Scrutiny Board on the Commission's policy preparation. Using machine learning techniques and quantitative text analysis, we study 673 Board opinions and compare almost 100 draft and final policy proposals. Our findings show that the Board is an active watchdog that is taken seriously by the Commission's departments. A full understanding of policy preparation in the EU therefore requires more scholarly attention to the Regulatory Scrutiny Board. 相似文献
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Roman Gerodimos 《Public administration》2004,82(4):911-929
This paper uses the BSE ('mad cow disease') crisis as a case study of the workings of the British core executive during a crisis event. Using the evidence from the Philips Inquiry, which reported on the BSE/vCJD crisis in 2000, the study analyses the patterns of decision making and the structures of institutional and resource dependence. It concludes that the lack of co-ordination between and within institutions and what was acknowledged to be the mismanagement of expert advice raise serious questions about the executive's ability to manage serious crises. The findings concur with scholarship indicating executive fragmentation and lack of accountability. Consecutive British governments have sought to diminish the centre's responsibility for managing public policy without putting an effective alternative mechanism in place. 相似文献