Reconviction following a cognitive skills intervention: An alternative quasi‐experimental methodology

Purpose. Enhanced Thinking Skills (ETS) has been the most widely delivered cognitive skills programme in the prisons of England and Wales. Four quasi‐experimental outcome studies have produced mixed results, a qualitative survey of offenders’ and facilitators’ experience on the programme proved useful in programme refinement, and a study using random allocation provided evidence that ETS impacts significantly and positively on short‐term attitudinal change. This study aims to make a further contribution, using another methodology, to the accumulation of evidence. Methods. This was a real‐world evaluation, comparing the reconviction outcomes of the population of 17,047 ETS participants in custody from 2000 to 2005 with a national cohort of 19,792 prisoners released over the same period. Results. Overall, prisoners who had attended ETS were found to reoffend at a rate 6.4 percentage points less than the cohort (rising to 7.5 percentage points for programme completers) and 9.5 percentage points less than the predicted rate. In all but the very highest risk group and in every sentence length band, the reoffending outcomes for ETS participants were significantly better than for prisoners in the cohort. Conclusions. It is argued that this non‐experimental methodology makes a contribution to the ‘What Works’ evidence.     

Public Investments in Education and Children’s Academic Achievements

While the benefits of additional schooling in the developing world are widely recognised, the best use of scarce resources to improve academic achievement remains unclear. We compare public investments in school infrastructure, school improvement grants, teacher qualifications, and attendance incentives on independently-gathered measures of academic skills as well as grade progression for 8–11 year olds in India. We match a rich household survey containing a skills-assessment module, the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), with detailed measures of each district’s education resources from the District Information Survey on Education (DISE). We also include border-pair fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that incentives for children to attend school were associated with arithmetic, reading and writing skills, and grade progression. Investment in teachers were associated with greater probability a child could write and do more advanced math. Small improvement grants to schools were associated with better reading skills and writing ability. Investments in school infrastructure were only associated with improved writing ability.     

Female Survival Calculations in Politically Violent Settings: How Political Violence and Terrorism Are Viewed as Pathways to Life

Evolutionary theory's utility for the study of political phenomena, including war and nationalism, has been demonstrated. However, these studies fail to explain substate violence, including terrorism, and rarely evaluate whether cost-benefit analyses differ for males and females. This article seeks to demonstrate that evolutionary theory provides intriguing insights into two phenomena that observers find difficult to understand: political violence, including terrorism and self-sacrifice in the form of suicide attacks, and female political violence.     

Actor Fragmentation and Civil War Bargaining: How Internal Divisions Generate Civil Conflict

Wars within states have become much more common than wars between them. A dominant approach to understanding civil war assumes that opposition movements are unitary, when empirically, most of them are not. I develop a theory for how internal divisions within opposition movements affect their ability to bargain with the state and avoid conflict. I argue that more divided movements generate greater commitment and information problems, thus making civil war more likely. I test this expectation using new annual data on the internal structure of opposition movements seeking self‐determination. I find that more divided movements are much more likely to experience civil war onset and incidence. This analysis suggests that the assumption that these movements are unitary has severely limited our understanding of when these disputes degenerate into civil wars.     

Permanent war? The domestic hegemony of the New American militarism

Although there is an expanding body of excellent work on 9/11 and the War on Terror, and the changing forms of war‐making, militarism and imperialism, this literature lacks a sufficient critical synthesis of the historical and conjunctural events of 9/11 and its aftermath with the structural and systemic forms of US militarism and the military‐industrial complex. This article attempts a broad, critical‐theoretical analysis of the increased domestic hegemony of militarism in the US since 9/11. The article examines the complex social‐systemic interlocking of militarism with other historical, political, institutional, economic, cultural and psychological forces which tend to reinforce the hegemony of militarism and aggressive, preemptive foreign policy in the current period.