国际关系进入新对立时代及俄罗斯的对策

在此想提一提我眼中的新时代。我在今年7月的一篇文章中提到了新时代来临的原因和特征,准确的说,新时代是指俄罗斯与西方关系乃至整个国际关系中的"新对立时代"。除了信息革命和经济全球化进程,信息革命所带来的数十亿民众政治觉醒和参政积极性的提高,国际安全领域可操控性的下降,伊斯兰教和基督教世界的旧有裂痕,富国和穷国之间弥久的南北矛盾外,     

中国抗日战争为世界反法西斯战争作出了特殊贡献

中国是坚决打击绥靖主义的旗手;中国是直接促进世界反法西斯统一战线逐步形成的旗手;中国抗日战争对日本法西斯陆军主力的牵制和消耗保证了盟国“先欧后亚”军事总体战略的顺利实施,支援和配合了前苏联的卫国战争和美国在太平洋战场的对日作战;中国抗日战场是世界反法西斯战争中开辟的第一个主战场,是打败日本法西斯的主力军和决定性力量;由于中国抗日战争所发挥的巨大作用,中国被推举为反法西斯的四大国之一和联合国五大常任理事国之一。     

Russian politics in a time of uncertainty∗

It is not only the vitality of the incumbent political regime but the very basis of the democratic system in Russia that has been tested by the recent economic crisis, argues Sergei Smolnikov, Visiting Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo. So far, the regime has reacted to the situation by recruiting the old nomenklatura to manage the country. Since it is forced to maneuver in a political and economic environment that is qualitatively different from the Soviet era, the nomenklatura might eventually attempt to reconstruct this environment. Smolnikov highlights a growing disparity between the major structural elements of the regime's foreign policy. If exacerbated, this trend could lead to a deterioration of Russia's relations with the West, and might eventually make Russia an international outcast. Strategically, this situation is dangerous not only for the future of democracy in Russia but also for international security. To ensure democracy in Russia remains vibrant, the West should not reduce its commitment to engage Russia by economic and political means.     

论国际法强制执行的法理基础

国际法的强制执行具有充分的法理基础。国家意志是国际法强制执行的根据。强制执行规则的制定、措施的选择、执行或者放弃都由国家决定。强行法是国际法强制执行的规范基础。它要求国际法必须是可被强制执行的。相互原则是国际法强制执行的基本机制，通过剥夺违法国的权利的方式发挥作用。国际组织的制裁是国际法强制执行的集中机制，由国际组织集体决定并授权国家采取强制措施。     

Y-chromosome STR haplotype diversity in Brazilian populations

A sample of 198 unrelated males distributed among the five geopolitical regions in Brazil were typed for the minimal Y-STR haplotype composed of microsatellite loci DYS19, DYS385I/II, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392 and DYS393. Gene frequency data, gene diversity, haplotype diversity and power of discrimination were estimated. An AMOVA indicated that 99.97% of the haplotypic variation is found within regions and only a small 0.03% and non significant variation is found among the five regions (Fst=0.00031, P-value=0.43). This result suggests that a single national database of Y-STR haplotypes can be used in the quantitative assessment of matches in forensic casework in the Brazilian population. A significant haplotype diversity of 99.8% was found and 172 different haplotypes were observed in 198 chromosomes. Haplotype (14-11, 14-13-29-24-11-13-13) with five occurrences in 198 chromosomes was the most frequent in Brazil.     

胡锦涛的新经济组织党建思想探析

胡锦涛新经济组织党建思想有其形成的前提与基础,包括逻辑基础、理论基础、实践基础;胡锦涛新经济组织党建思想的内容比较丰富,包括提出新经济组织党建工作的基本指导原则,明确新经济组织中党组织的地位、职能、功能与设置方式,强调要建立健全抓新经济组织党建工作的领导责任制,论证了新经济组织党建与社区党建的关系;胡锦涛新经济组织党建思想具有重要的价值意义,它指导着新经济组织党建工作的创新性探索,推动着新经济组织党建工作水平的提升,丰富完善了党的基层组织建设理论.     

Profit rather than politics: the production of Lenin monuments in Soviet Latvia

The archived documents on outdoor sculpture commissions in Soviet Latvia reveal that the thesis of art having been colonized by the Communist party is too simplistic. Sculptors and architects had vested business interests in monument production. Until the mid-1950s, the cream of academically-educated Latvian sculptors was sidelined by Russians who mass-produced concrete replicas of statues portraying Lenin or Stalin. The majority of the works came through the mass production of works of visual propaganda in the Māksla art factory. Also, less-talented local sculptors were able to find a role satisfying the demand for cheap, decorative sculpture. Looking for ways to access this market, the local art elite invented aesthetic and semiotic arguments in support of the original, locally-made, Lenin sculptures that would be cast in permanent materials and could serve as the spatial organizers of new communist rituals in the urban environment for which they won municipal commissions resulting in the reconstruction of central squares in Latvian towns. What this means is that artists driven by their mercantile interests and not by ideology played an active part in elaborating the aesthetics of communist ideology, and therefore provided support for the dominant discourse of power relations.     

Probability of default models of Russian banks

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. In the first part of the paper we analyse bank survival over the financial crisis of 1998. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incorporation of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. In the second part of the paper we use the probability of default models developed in the first part in rolling windows to analyse the Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998.     

关于健全完善我国预审制度的思考

公安机关于1997年进行刑侦体制改革,撤销了预审机构,实行侦审合一,引起对预审存废认识上的分歧,导致当前预审名亡实、存多种形式并存的局面。其原因主要在于对预审的概念、性质、作用存在认识上的误区。预审在侦查程序中不能被替代,应通过立法健全和完善我国的预审制度。设立预审程序,可以对侦查终结的案件实施法律监督,可以保证办案质量,保障起诉和审判的顺利进行。