Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Soldier,civilian, criminal: identifying pathways to offending of ex-armed forces personnel in prison

Little is known about why some ex-armed forces personnel become involved in the criminal justice system, however, they represent the largest known occupational group in prison. In-depth interviews were employed to explore possible pathways to offending. Twenty ex-armed forces personnel in prison were recruited from five prisons in England. Data were analysed using a combination of thematic analysis and constant comparison methods rooted in grounded theory. Four predominant themes were identified: experiences of trauma and adversity; belonging; impulsivity and creating a soldier. Participants had experienced a number of traumatic incidents and adversity in their lives, encompassing pre, during and post-service but felt a sense of belonging in the armed forces. Participants demonstrated impulsivity in a number of areas with links to both their service in the armed forces and offending behaviour. The creation of the identity of ‘soldier’ was perceived to impact participants’ lives in a number of ways, including their offending, alcohol use and coping with trauma. The interplay of these themes and their potential impact on participants’ pathways to offending are discussed.     

“Gender is No Substitute for Sex”: A Comparative Human Rights Analysis of the Legal Regulation of Sexual Identity

U.K. regulation of sexual identity within a marriage context has traditionally been linked to biological sex. In response to the European Court of Human Rights decisions in Goodwin and I.,² and in order to address the question of whether a transsexual person can be treated as a “real” member of their adoptive sex, the U.K. has recently passed the Gender Recognition Act 2004. While the Act appears to signal a move away from biology and towards a conception of sexual identity based on gender rather than sex, questions of sexual identity remain rooted in medico-legal assessments of the individual transsexual body/mind. In contrast, because transsexual people in some parts of Canada have been able to marry in their post-operative sex since 1990, contemporary debates on the sexual identity of transsexual people in British Columbia and Ontario do not focus on the validity of marriage, and more frequently centre upon the provision of goods and services, in human rights contexts where sex is said to matter. Currently in Canada this is prompting questions of what it means to be a woman in society, how the law should interpret sex and gender, and how, if at all, the parameters of sexual identity should be established in law. This article seeks to compare recent U.K. legal conceptualisations of transsexuality with Canadian law in this area. As human rights discourse begins to grow in the U.K., the question remains as to whether or not gender will become an adequate substitute for sex.See Johnson “Gender is no substitute for Sex” Daily Telegraph, 24 February 2004. I am being disingenuous here as the author of the article is arguing that replacing the term sex with gender in relation to transsexuality is erroneous and an annoying Americanism, whereas I am arguing that neither term is adequate. Goodwin v. U.K. [2002] 35 E.H.R.R. 18; I. v.U.K. [2002] 2 F.L.R. 518.     

The etiology of adolescents' perceptions of their weight

The present study examined adolescents' actual and perceived weights in relation to why adolescents think they weigh what they do, where adolescents obtain weight control information, and adolescents' weight locus of control. The study was conducted in a Midwestern high school, based on information obtaind from 194 freshmen. Thirty percent of the adolescents perceived their weight category inaccurately when compared to their actual weight and height. One-third of those who were thin, one-half of those who were normal weight, and two-thirds of those who were heavy had been exercising during the past six months to control or lose weight. Six percent of the thin, 41% of the normal weight, and 56% of the heavy students had dieted within the past six months to control or lose weight. The leading sources of weight control information were television, family, friends, and magazines. Teachers were identified as sources of information by less than 10% of the students. Mother, family, and friends were identified as those most helpful in adolescents' attempts to lose weight. Significant chi-square differences were found between weight locus of control orientations and actual and perceived weight categories. Finally, a multivariate analysis of variance was used to analyze adolescents' perceptions of weighing what they do. Eat too much vs too little and exercise too much vs too little were the two reasons identified that were statistically significant. The information obtained from this study may be useful in designing and implementing weight control and nutritional programs for adolescents. For many of the adolescents, their perceptions were different from reality.Received M.S. from University of Toledo. Research interests include behavioral medicine.Profsssor of health education. Received Ph.D. from Western Michigan university. Research interests include behavioral medicine.Received M.A. from Oregon State University. Research interests include environmental health.Received Ph.D. from University of Toledo. Research interests include behavioral medicine.