Predicting the Risk of Intimate Partner Violence: The Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims

The present study reports the development and validation of the Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims (CRAT-V), an actuarial instrument for the prediction of intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization in a Chinese population. Data were collected from a representative sample of 2,708 Chinese women who were married or cohabiting in Hong Kong. All participants were interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their experience of IPV victimization and personal or family factors related to IPV. As measured by the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS 2), the base rates of preceding-year physical and sexual IPV victimization were 4.6 % and 3.6 %, respectively. Using a cross-validation procedure, the present study developed a 5-factor instrument with one half of the randomly split sample and validated the resulting tool with the other half. The CRAT-V had a sensitivity of 74.0 %, a specificity of 68.3 %, an overall accuracy of 68.7 %, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.75 when administered on the second half of sample. Overall, the CRAT-V may serve as a straightforward, systematic, and easy-to-administer instrument tailor-made for Chinese populations for the assessment of risk of IPV victimization against women.     

统战宣传工作的问题与对策研究——以江门市为例

开展统一战线宣传工作是统战部的主要职责。目前,统战宣传仍存在思想重视不够、机构不健全、经费不足、效果不明显等问题。江门市素有“中国第一侨乡”的美誉,统战资源丰富,强而有力的统战宣传工作使江门统一战线各领域工作事半功倍,有力地促进了江门统战工作的发展。本课题深入调研江门市统战宣传工作情况,分析现状,找出问题,并结合实际,提出对策建议。     

Identifying Classes of Explanations for Crime Drop: Period and Cohort Effects for New York State

Objective

This paper advances current understanding of the contemporary crime drop by focusing on the changes in the age distribution of arrests from 1990 to 2010. Using the New York State Computerized Criminal History (CCH) file, which tracks every arrest in the state, we apply standard demographic methods to examine age-specific arrest rates over time. We test whether the 25 % drop in the felony arrest rate can be best explained by period or cohort effects with special attention to how the phenomenon varies across crime types and regions within the state.

Methods

Following the analytic approach of O’Brien and Stockard (J Quant Criminol 25(1):79–101, 2009), we fit the age–period–cohort (APC) model using the generalized inverse matrix, which creates an estimable model. We partition the model variation into each factor by subtracting the variation of the two-factor model from the variation of the three-factor model to provide a direct comparison of the two different classes of explanations for crime drop: period and cohort.

Results

Our analysis supports a cohort explanation over a period explanation. Controlling for the (substantial) variation due to age, the cohort effect accounts for twice as much of the remaining variation as the period effect. Specifically, the drop in arrest rates is concentrated in more recent birth cohorts across all ages. Although we found statistically significant age–period interaction effects for the younger age group (ages 16–20) in 1990 and 1995, the cohort effect was still a much stronger predictor of felony arrest rates than the period explanation, even with the age–period interaction.

Conclusions

The current study reports that the overall drop in felony arrest rates from 1990 to 2010 is mostly due to decreased arrests among those who were born after 1970 rather than a universal drop across different age groups. We discuss but do not test two potential explanations—the legalization of abortion and the ban on leaded gasoline—for the underlying factors associated with a different criminal propensity among birth cohorts.

     

《论党》与马克思主义中国化

马克思主义中国化是中国共产党成立以来几代人为之奋斗的一项伟大事业。刘少奇作为第一代领导集体的主要成员,以独特的视角从党建方面对马克思主义中国化作出了创新性的贡献,这一贡献集中体现在1945年七大作的《关于修改党章的报告》。《论党》以阐述党章的形式对党的性质、党建理论、毛泽东思想的科学内涵、群众路线等作了系统总结,成为中国化马克思主义建党理论的一次重大飞跃。     

日本观光立国战略动态分析及其启示

2003年,日本政府提出"观光立国战略",旨在利用得天独厚的自然环境与丰富的旅游资源吸引外国游客,通过大力发展国际旅游业拉动经济增长,摆脱日本国内经济持续低迷的局面。在日本政府的努力下,旅游业取得了令人瞩目的成绩,成为日本支柱产业之一。之后,日本政府结合国内外政治经济形势变化及本国"少子高龄化"社会情况,先后多次调整观光立国战略发展规划,使旅游业发展成为一项由中央到地方、产学研一体化推进、自上而下的全民运动。在对日本观光立国战略背景及战略框架探讨的基础上,归纳、分析日本观光立国战略动态发展主要层面特征,为中国旅游业发展提供参考。     

Rethinking Caretaker Conventions for Australian Governments

Australia has well‐established conventions for caretaker governments. These conventions regulate how a government should operate once an election is called, and have been documented for some decades. Yet the current conventions date from an era when elections usually produced clear and immediate results. Can our caretaker conventions cope with the emerging reality of indecisive elections and long delays before a new government is confirmed? This paper canvasses the state of Australia's caretaker conventions and offers suggestions for an expanded, contemporary code.     

关于宁夏在区域经济格局中的定位问题

宁夏位于西部经济大区域和黄河经济协作区的交集之中,在这两大经济板块中找到自己的位置十分重要。宁夏应该依托经济发展焕发出来的优势,即流通业内在发展动力强的产业特点,通过大力发展物流业这一新兴产业带动流通业发展,以求二、三产业相互促进,走出自己特色的经济发展之路。     

猪圆环病毒2型ORF2基因插入猪细小病毒VP2基因3'端对病毒样颗粒形成的影响

以猪细小病毒(PPV)四川分离株SC-1的VP2基因3'端为靶点,在第1215和1216位之间插入长约700 bp的猪圆环病毒2型(PCV2)ORF2基因片段,将重组后的PPV VP2-PCV2 ORF2克隆到真核表达载体pEGFP-C1中,构建了重组质粒pEGFP.VO;经酶切和PCR鉴定后,采用脂质体介导法将重组质粒pEGFP.VO转染COS-7细胞,应用倒置荧光显微镜、电镜、免疫荧光以及生物信息学技术对表达产物进行观察分析.结果显示,重组质粒pEGFP.VO在COS-7细胞中得到表达,但在电镜下没有观察到病毒样颗粒.通过对PPV衣壳蛋白的三维结构分析及免疫荧光检测发现,PCV2 ORF2基因的插入位点位于PPVVP2基因的3'端,相应表达产物则位于VP2蛋白多肽的C端,且被其包裹在内,这可能影响了病毒样颗粒的形成,表明,PPV VP2基因3'端不适合外源基因插入构建重组病毒样颗粒.     

略论高校图书馆制度建设与读者服务

论述了图书馆制度建设的重要性,指出高校图书馆规章制度应贯彻为读者服务的宗旨,并对高校图书馆的制度建设提出了建议.