Bias in the formulation of local government budget problems

Government budgets are premised on forecasts of revenues and expenditures. These forecasts are subject to both stochastic error and strategic manipulation. Circumstantial evidence in the budgeting literature and in the popular media suggest that government officials routinely bias the forecasts underlying budgets. The research reported here asked three primary questions: To what extent are budget forecasts systematically biased? Why? (Are fiscal and electoral variables systematically related to the magnitude and direction of the biases?) What political and ethical difference do the biases make? From the literature and an analysis of the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, we developed hypotheses about budget biases. These hypotheses were tested using time series data for the City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (1941–1983); the City of San Diego, California (1950–1982); and the Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) School District (1946–1983). In these locales over the periods examined, budgets were systematically pessimistic; revenues were underestimated and expenditures were overestimated. The fiscal and electoral factors hypothesized to account for this pessimism are, however, very mixed in their ability to explain the biases.     

Referendums in the Third World

Since the early 1960s many Third World countries have been attracted to referendums, with the earliest being held in Uruguay in 1917, Iraq in 1921 and Chile in 1925. Butler and Ranney(1978) identified referendums in Third World nations up to 1978, yet analysis of the political process and patterns of these referendums is lacking in the political science literature. It is the purpose of this paper to identify some of the patterns and processes common to African, Asian, Latin American and Middle Eastern referendums. The paper will examine briefly the Western democratic referendums, excluding the experience of Switzerland and Australia where referendums are an integral part of the constitutional and political process. Secondly, the general and regional Third World patterns will be examined. Thirdly, referendums in nine countries will be described; lastly, the paper will conclude with the identification of the common patterns and processes of Third World referendums. In this paper we are concerned with post- independence national level referendums; although, many referendums have been conducted on a subnational level and prior to independence.     

A theoretical basis for participatory planning

Arguments are presented for the reconsideration of models which guide planning behavior and structure planning organizations. Hierarchical organizations are contrasted with reticular organizations and the latter are presented as necessary for effective citizen participation. Legitimacy is presented as a fundamental basis of justifying planning action and historical shifts in forms of legitimacy are noted. Participation, as a form of legitimacy, and several aspects of participatory planning are discussed in terms of recent systems thinking. It is argued that participatory planning increases the effectiveness and adaptivity of the planning process and contributes adaptivity and stability to the societal system. Further, it is argued that citizen participation is an essential element in making the planning process a learning system. This leads to a strengthening of the definition and role of communities in the urban system, and to an unexpected requirement of planners who would adopt a participatory planning process.